Physical Sciences and Mathematics | Open Access Articles

Changes In Severe Thunderstorm Environment Frequency During The 21st Century Caused By Anthropogenically Enhanced Global Radiative Forcing, Robert J. Trapp, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Harold E. Brooks, Michael E. Baldwin, Eric D. Robinson, Jeremy S. Pal

Jeremy Pal

Severe thunderstorms comprise an extreme class of deep convective clouds and produce high-impact weather such as destructive surface winds, hail, and tornadoes. This study addresses the question of how severe thunderstorm frequency in the United States might change because of enhanced global radiative forcing associated with elevated greenhouse gas concentrations. We use global climate models and a high-resolution regional climate model to examine the larger-scale (or “environmental”) meteorological conditions that foster severe thunderstorm formation. Across this model suite, we find a net increase during the late 21st century in the number of days in which these severe thunderstorm environmental conditions …

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Consistency Of Projected Drought Over The Sahel With Changes In The Monsoon Circulation And Extremes In A Regional Climate Model Projections, M. B. Sylla, A. T. Gaye, G. S. Jenkins, Jeremy S. Pal, F. Giorgi

Jeremy Pal

As a step toward an increased understanding of climate change over West Africa, in this paper we analyze the relationship between rainfall changes and monsoon dynamics in high-resolution regional climate model experiments performed using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3). Multidecadal simulations are carried out for present-day and future climate conditions under increased greenhouse gas forcing driven by the global climate model European Center/Hamburg 5 (ECHAM5). Compared to the present day, the future scenario simulation produces drier conditions over the Sahel and wetter conditions over orographic areas. The Sahel drying is accompanied by a weaker monsoon flow, a southward migration and …

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Regional Climate Modeling For The Developing World: The Ictp Regcm3 And Regcnet, Jeremy S. Pal, Filippo Giorgi, Xunqiang Bi, Nellie Elguindi, Fabien Solmon, Xuejie Gao, Sara A. Rauscher, Raquel Francisco, Ashraf Zakey, Jonathan Winter, Moetasim Ashfaq, Faisal S. Syed, Jason L. Bell, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Jagadish Karmacharya, Abourahamane Konaré, Daniel Martinez, Rosmeri P. Da Rocha, Lisa C. Sloan, Allison L. Steiner

Jeremy Pal

Regional climate models are important research tools available to scientists around the world, including in economically developing nations (EDNs). The Earth Systems Physics (ESP) group of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) maintains and distributes a state-of-the-science regional climate model called the ICTP Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3), which is currently being used by a large research community for a diverse range of climate-related studies. The RegCM3 is the central, but not only, tool of the ICTP-maintained Regional Climate Research Network (RegCNET) aimed at creating south–south and north–south scientific interactions on the topic of climate and …

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Changes In Severe Thunderstorm Environment Frequency During The 21st Century Caused By Anthropogenically Enhanced Global Radiative Forcing, Robert J. Trapp, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Harold E. Brooks, Michael E. Baldwin, Eric D. Robinson, Jeremy S. Pal

Jeremy Pal

Consistency Of Projected Drought Over The Sahel With Changes In The Monsoon Circulation And Extremes In A Regional Climate Model Projections, M. B. Sylla, A. T. Gaye, G. S. Jenkins, Jeremy S. Pal, F. Giorgi

Jeremy Pal

Jeremy Pal