Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Uncertainty Analysis Of The Performance Of A System Of Best Management Practices For Achieving Phosphorus Load Reduction To Surface Waters, Jason D.M. Igras

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

The repeated occurrence of Lake Erie’s harmful algal blooms suggests an inadequate phosphorus management system that results in excessive loads to the lake. In response, Canadian and United States’ governments have issued a new management objective, a 40% reduction in total and dissolved reactive phosphorus loads relative to 2008. To provide scientific evidence to guide managers toward achieving their management objective, we used the International Organization of Standardization (ISO) 31010 Bowtie Risk Analysis Tool to analyze the performance of the phosphorus management system. The effectiveness of agricultural best management practices (BMPs) and their adoption were combined into a Bayesian belief …