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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The Origin, Development, Application, Lessons Learned, And Future Regarding The Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model For Ecological Risk Assessment, Wayne Landis Jan 2021

The Origin, Development, Application, Lessons Learned, And Future Regarding The Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model For Ecological Risk Assessment, Wayne Landis

Institute of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry Publications

In 2012, a regional risk assessment was published that applied Bayesian networks (BN) to the structure of the relative risk model. The original structure of the relative risk model (RRM) was published in the late 1990s and developed during the next decade. The RRM coupled with a Monte Carlo analysis was applied to calculating risk to a number of sites and a variety of questions. The sites included watersheds, terrestrial systems, and marine environments and included stressors such as nonindigenous species, effluents, pesticides, nutrients, and management options. However, it became apparent that there were limits to the original approach. In …


Incorporating Climate Change Predictions In Ecological Risk Assessment: A Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model For Chinook Salmon In The Skagit River Watershed, Eric J. Lawrence Oct 2020

Incorporating Climate Change Predictions In Ecological Risk Assessment: A Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model For Chinook Salmon In The Skagit River Watershed, Eric J. Lawrence

Institute of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry Publications

Climate change is expected to have widespread impacts on future ecosystem services in the Puget Sound and around the world. It is important that climate change be included in ecological risk assessment so that changing climate variables and potential interactive effects with chemical stressors can be taken into account. In this research, I focused on the question of how water temperature changes generated by climate change interact with organophosphate pesticide toxicity to affect Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) population size in the Skagit River, WA. To answer this question, I conducted an ecological risk assessment using the Bayesian network relative risk …


Can Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi Protect Rubus Idaeus From The Effects Of Soil-Borne Disease And Parasitic Nematodes?, Erika J. Whitney Oct 2020

Can Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi Protect Rubus Idaeus From The Effects Of Soil-Borne Disease And Parasitic Nematodes?, Erika J. Whitney

Institute of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry Publications

Chemical controls for agricultural pests and diseases can have detrimental effects on human health and the environment. One alternative is to introduce soil microbes, such as arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), that can improve crop resilience to pests and pathogens. While many plants form symbioses with AMF, not all crops benefit from inoculation. We conducted three studies that questioned the effect of AMF from various sources on R. idaeus growth and resilience to pests/pathogens. First, in a small observational study, we investigated whether AMF colonization of raspberry roots covaried with stand vigor. In two subsequent greenhouse experiments, we asked (1) if …


Incorporating Characteristics Of Gene Drive Engineered Ae. Aegypti As Methods To Reduce Dengue And Zika Virus Into The Bayesian Network – Relativ Esian Network – Relative Risk Model, Using P E Risk Model, Using Ponce, Puer Once, Puerto Rico As A Case Study, Steven R. Eikenbary Jul 2020

Incorporating Characteristics Of Gene Drive Engineered Ae. Aegypti As Methods To Reduce Dengue And Zika Virus Into The Bayesian Network – Relativ Esian Network – Relative Risk Model, Using P E Risk Model, Using Ponce, Puer Once, Puerto Rico As A Case Study, Steven R. Eikenbary

Institute of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry Publications

This study proposes the use of the Bayesian network relative risk model (BN-RRM) to estimate the risk associated with the release of gene drives as vectors to control disease, using Ponce, Puerto Rico as a case study. Bayesian networks are an appropriate risk assessment tool for quantitatively and probabilistically examining complex systems involving multiple stressors acting on multiple endpoints in a wide variety of situations. The emerging field of synthetic biology has the capacity to drastically alter ecological systems with the use of gene drive engineered organisms as a method to alter population dynamics. The purpose of the release of …


Integrating Synthetic Biology Derived Variables Into Ecological Risk Assessment Using The Bayesian Network – Relative Risk Model: Gene Drives To Control Nonindigenous M. Musculus On Southeast Farallon Island, Ethan A. Brown Apr 2020

Integrating Synthetic Biology Derived Variables Into Ecological Risk Assessment Using The Bayesian Network – Relative Risk Model: Gene Drives To Control Nonindigenous M. Musculus On Southeast Farallon Island, Ethan A. Brown

Institute of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry Publications

Ecological risk assessment has not been conducted for the proposed environmental applications of synthetic biology. To develop a quantitative framework for risk assessment of synthetic biology, I selected Southeast Farallon Island as a case study for modeling the deployment of gene drive modified house mice to reduce impacts to threatened species. Southeast Farallon Island is part of the Farallon Islands National Wildlife Refuge. The island is populated by invasive house mice that impact indigenous species. Gene drive technology has been proposed as a method to suppress invasive rodent populations through CRISPR-mediated genome editing. I applied the Bayesian Network – Relative …


Evaluation Of A Bayesian Network For Strengthening The Weight Of Evidence To Predict Acute Fish Toxicity From Fish Embryo Toxicity Data, Adam Lillicrap, S. Jannicke Moe, Raoul Wolf, Kristin A. Connors, Jane M. Rawlings, Wayne G. Landis, Anders Madsen, Scott E. Belanger Mar 2020

Evaluation Of A Bayesian Network For Strengthening The Weight Of Evidence To Predict Acute Fish Toxicity From Fish Embryo Toxicity Data, Adam Lillicrap, S. Jannicke Moe, Raoul Wolf, Kristin A. Connors, Jane M. Rawlings, Wayne G. Landis, Anders Madsen, Scott E. Belanger

Institute of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry Publications

The use of fish embryo toxicity (FET) data for hazard assessments of chemicals, in place of acute fish toxicity (AFT) data, has long been the goal for many environmental scientists. The FET test was first proposed as a replacement to the standardized AFT test nearly 15 y ago, but as of now, it has still not been accepted as a standalone replacement by regulatory authorities such as the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). However, the ECHA has indicated that FET data can be used in a weight of evidence (WoE) approach, if enough information is available to support the conclusions related …


Using Bayesian Networks To Predict Risk To Estuary Water Quality And Patterns Of Benthic Environmental Dna In Queensland, Scarlett E. Graham, Anthony A. Chariton, Wayne G. Landis Jan 2019

Using Bayesian Networks To Predict Risk To Estuary Water Quality And Patterns Of Benthic Environmental Dna In Queensland, Scarlett E. Graham, Anthony A. Chariton, Wayne G. Landis

Institute of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry Publications

Predictive modeling can inform natural resource management by representing stressor-response pathways in a logical way and quantifying the effects on selected endpoints. This study demonstrates a risk assessment model using the Bayesian network-relative risk model (BNRRM) approach to predict water quality and; for the first time, eukaryote environmental DNA (eDNA) data as a measure of benthic community structure. Environmental DNA sampling is a technique for biodiversity measurements that involves extracting DNA from environmental samples, amplicon sequencing a targeted gene, in this case the 18s rDNA gene which targets eukaryotes, and matching the sequences to organisms. Using a network of probability …