Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Future Changes In Snowmelt-Driven Runoff Timing Over The Western Us, Sara A. Rauscher, Jeremy S. Pal, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Michael M. Benedetti

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Works

We use a high-resolution nested climate model to investigate future changes in snowmelt-driven runoff (SDR) over the western US. Comparison of modeled and observed daily runoff data reveals that the regional model captures the present-day timing and trends of SDR. Results from an A2 scenario simulation indicate that increases in seasonal temperature of approximately 3° to 5°C resulting from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations could cause SDR to occur as much as two months earlier than present. These large changes result from an amplified snow-albedo feedback driven by the topographic complexity of the region, which is more accurately resolved in a …