Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Effects Of Changing Climate Extremes And Vegetation Phenology On Wildlife Associated With Grasslands In The Southwestern United States, Tyler G. Creech, Matthew A. Williamson, Steven E. Sesnie, Esther S. Rubin, Daniel R. Cayan, Erica Fleishman

Human-Environment Systems Research Center Faculty Publications and Presentations

Assessments of the potential responses of animal species to climate change often rely on correlations between long-term average temperature or precipitation and species' occurrence or abundance. Such assessments do not account for the potential predictive capacity of either climate extremes and variability or the indirect effects of climate as mediated by plant phenology. By contrast, we projected responses of wildlife in desert grasslands of the southwestern United States to future climate means, extremes, and variability and changes in the timing and magnitude of primary productivity. We used historical climate data and remotely sensed phenology metrics to develop predictive models of …