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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seasonal Variability And Predictability Of Monsoon Precipitation In Southern Africa, Matthew F. Horan, Fred Kucharski, Moetasim Ashfaq
Seasonal Variability And Predictability Of Monsoon Precipitation In Southern Africa, Matthew F. Horan, Fred Kucharski, Moetasim Ashfaq
Faculty Publications
Rainfed agriculture is the mainstay of economies across Southern Africa (SA), where most precipitation is received during the austral summer monsoon. This study aims to further our understanding of monsoon precipitation predictability over SA. We use three natural climate forcings, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Indian Ocean Precipitation Dipole (IOPD)—the dominant precipitation variability mode—to construct an empirical model that exhibits significant skill over SA during monsoon in explaining precipitation variability and in forecasting it with a five-month lead. While most explained precipitation variance (50%–75%) comes from contemporaneous IOD and IOPD, preconditioning all three forcings is key …
Climate Change's Effect On Flow Regime, Alexander Ialenti
Climate Change's Effect On Flow Regime, Alexander Ialenti
Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects
This project will test to see if there is a percent increase in non-perennial streams sampled from 2003-2021. Using data provided by The Cleveland Metroparks, sampling events will be separated by date, flow regime classification, and rain data. Current literature supports the claim that many perennial streams, streams that flow year-round, will become non-perennial streams over time. This shift is predicted to be caused by a change in rain patterns. Both the interval between rain events and the intensity of rainfall per event are predicted to increase. My hypothesis is that there will be an increase in the percentage of …