Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Deriving The Distributions And Developing Methods Of Inference For R2-Type Measures, With Applications To Big Data Analysis, Gregory S. Hawk

Theses and Dissertations--Statistics

As computing capabilities and cloud-enhanced data sharing has accelerated exponentially in the 21st century, our access to Big Data has revolutionized the way we see data around the world, from healthcare to investments to manufacturing to retail and supply-chain. In many areas of research, however, the cost of obtaining each data point makes more than just a few observations impossible. While machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) are improving our ability to make predictions from datasets, we need better statistical methods to improve our ability to understand and translate models into meaningful and actionable insights.

A central goal in the …

Statistical L-Moment And L-Moment Ratio Estimation And Their Applicability In Network Analysis, Timothy S. Anderson

Theses and Dissertations

This research centers on finding the statistical moments, network measures, and statistical tests that are most sensitive to various node degradations for the Barabási-Albert, Erdös-Rényi, and Watts-Strogratz network models. Thirty-five different graph structures were simulated for each of the random graph generation algorithms, and sensitivity analysis was undertaken on three different network measures: degree, betweenness, and closeness. In an effort to find the statistical moments that are the most sensitive to degradation within each network, four traditional moments: mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis as well as three non-traditional moments: L-variance, L-skewness, and L-kurtosis were examined. Each of these moments were …

Errors In A Program For Approximating Confidence Intervals, Andrew V. Frane

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

An SPSS script previously presented in this journal contained nontrivial flaws. The script should not be used as written. A call is renewed for validation of new software.

Reflections Concerning Recent Ban On Nhst And Confidence Intervals, Grayson L. Baird, Sunny R. Duerr

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

This letter addresses some of the immediate consequences of Basic and Applied Social Psychology’s (BASP) ban on null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and confidence intervals. The letter concludes with three suggestions to improve research in general.

Estimating The Fraction Of The Kelly Bet, William Chin, Marc Ingenoso

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

It is well known that an advantage gambler maximizes the average geometric growth rate by using Kelly betting. If the advantage is known precisely, then one can to use Full Kelly betting or, more commonly, some fraction of it. Systematic gamblers may have an advantage, but may not know exactly how large it is. This may be the case for e.g. sports bettors, blackjack and poker players and future traders. We show how they can estimate the fraction of full Kelly they have been employing, from their past results. This ongoing process enables them to select future bet sizing scientifically …

Jmasm38: Confidence Intervals For Kendall's Tau With Small Samples (Spss), David A. Walker

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A syntax program, not readily expedient in statistical software such as SPSS, is provided for an application of confidence interval estimates with Kendall’s tau-b for small samples.

Estimation Of Reliability In Multicomponent Stress-Strength Based On Generalized Rayleigh Distribution, Gadde Srinivasa Rao

Srinivasa Rao Gadde Dr.

A multicomponent system of k components having strengths following k- independently and identically distributed random variables x1, x2, ..., xk and each component experiencing a random stress Y is considered. The system is regarded as alive only if at least s out of k (s < k) strengths exceed the stress. The reliability of such a system is obtained when strength and stress variates are given by a generalized Rayleigh distribution with different shape parameters. Reliability is estimated using the maximum likelihood (ML) method of estimation in samples drawn from strength and stress distributions; the reliability estimators are compared asymptotically. Monte-Carlo …

Comparison Of Bayesian Credible Intervals To Frequentist Confidence Intervals, Kathy Gray, Brittany Hampton, Tony Silveti-Falls, Allison Mcconnell, Casey Bausell

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Frequentist confidence intervals were compared with Bayesian credible intervals under a variety of scenarios to determine when Bayesian credible intervals outperform frequentist confidence intervals. Results indicated that Bayesian interval estimation frequently produces results with precision greater than or equal to the frequentist method.

Comparison Of Re-Sampling Methods To Generalized Linear Models And Transformations In Factorial And Fractional Factorial Designs, Maher Qumsiyeh, Gerald Shaughnessy

Maher Qumsiyeh

Experimental situations in which observations are not normally distributed frequently occur in practice. A common situation occurs when responses are discrete in nature, for example counts. One way to analyze such experimental data is to use a transformation for the responses; another is to use a link function based on a generalized linear model (GLM) approach. Re-sampling is employed as an alternative method to analyze non-normal, discrete data. Results are compared to those obtained by the previous two methods.

Depicting Estimates Using The Intercept In Meta-Regression Models: The Moving Constant Technique, Blair T. Johnson Dr., Tania B. Huedo-Medina Dr.

Blair T. Johnson

In any scientific discipline, the ability to portray research patterns graphically often aids greatly in interpreting a phenomenon. In part to depict phenomena, the statistics and capabilities of meta-analytic models have grown increasingly sophisticated. Accordingly, this article details how to move the constant in weighted meta-analysis regression models (viz. “meta-regression”) to illuminate the patterns in such models across a range of complexities. Although it is commonly ignored in practice, the constant (or intercept) in such models can be indispensible when it is not relegated to its usual static role. The moving constant technique makes possible estimates and confidence intervals at …

Estimation Of Reliability In Multicomponent Stress-Strength Based On Generalized Rayleigh Distribution, Gadde Srinivasa Rao

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A multicomponent system of k components having strengths following k- independently and identically distributed random variables x₁, x₂, ..., x_k and each component experiencing a random stress Y is considered. The system is regarded as alive only if at least s out of k (s < k) strengths exceed the stress. The reliability of such a system is obtained when strength and stress variates are given by a generalized Rayleigh distribution with different shape parameters. Reliability is estimated using the maximum likelihood (ML) method of estimation in samples drawn from strength and stress …

Heterogeneity Issues In The Meta-Analysis Of Cluster Randomization Trials., Shun Fu Chen

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

An increasing number of systematic reviews summarize results from cluster randomization trials. Applying existing meta-analysis methods to such trials is problematic because responses of subjects within clusters are likely correlated. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate heterogeneity in the context of fixed effects models providing guidance for conducting a meta-analysis of such trials. The approaches include the adjusted Q statistic, adjusted heterogeneity variance estimators and their corresponding confidence intervals and adjusted measures of heterogeneity and their corresponding confidence intervals. Attention is limited to meta-analyses of completely randomized trials having a binary outcome. An analytic expression for power of …

Comparison Of Re-Sampling Methods To Generalized Linear Models And Transformations In Factorial And Fractional Factorial Designs, Maher Qumsiyeh, Gerald Shaughnessy

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Experimental situations in which observations are not normally distributed frequently occur in practice. A common situation occurs when responses are discrete in nature, for example counts. One way to analyze such experimental data is to use a transformation for the responses; another is to use a link function based on a generalized linear model (GLM) approach. Re-sampling is employed as an alternative method to analyze non-normal, discrete data. Results are compared to those obtained by the previous two methods.

New Approximate Bayesian Confidence Intervals For The Coefficient Of Variation Of A Gaussian Distribution, Vincent A. R. Camara

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Confidence intervals are constructed for the coefficient of variation of a Gaussian distribution. Considering the square error and the Higgins-Tsokos loss functions, approximate Bayesian models are derived and compared to a published classical model. The models are shown to have great coverage accuracy. The classical model does not always yield the best confidence intervals; the proposed models often perform better.

Depicting Estimates Using The Intercept In Meta-Regression Models: The Moving Constant Technique, Blair T. Johnson Dr., Tania B. Huedo-Medina Dr.

CHIP Documents

In any scientific discipline, the ability to portray research patterns graphically often aids greatly in interpreting a phenomenon. In part to depict phenomena, the statistics and capabilities of meta-analytic models have grown increasingly sophisticated. Accordingly, this article details how to move the constant in weighted meta-analysis regression models (viz. “meta-regression”) to illuminate the patterns in such models across a range of complexities. Although it is commonly ignored in practice, the constant (or intercept) in such models can be indispensible when it is not relegated to its usual static role. The moving constant technique makes possible estimates and confidence intervals at …

Confidence Interval Estimation For Continuous Outcomes In Cluster Randomization Trials, Julia Taleban

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Cluster randomization trials are experiments where intact social units (e.g. hospitals, schools, communities, and families) are randomized to the arms of the trial rather than individuals. The popularity of this design among health researchers is partially due to reduced contamination of treatment effects and convenience. However, the advantages of cluster randomization trials come with a price. Due to the dependence of individuals within a cluster, cluster randomization trials suffer reduced statistical efficiency and often require a complex analysis of study outcomes.

The primary purpose of this thesis is to propose new confidence intervals for effect measures commonly of interest for …

Estimating Confidence Intervals For Eigenvalues In Exploratory Factor Analysis, Ross Larsen, Russell Warne

Russell T Warne

Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) has become a common procedure in educational and psychological research. In the course of performing an EFA, researchers often base the decision of how many factors to retain on the eigenvalues for the factors. However, many researchers do not realize that eigenvalues, like all sample statistics, are subject to sampling error, which means that confidence intervals (CIs) can be estimated for each eigenvalue. In the present article, we demonstrate two methods of estimating CIs for eigenvalues: one based on the mathematical properties of the central limit theorem, and the other based on bootstrapping. References to appropriate …

Approximate Bayesian Confidence Intervals For The Mean Of A Gaussian Distribution Versus Bayesian Models, Vincent A. R. Camara

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

This study obtained and compared confidence intervals for the mean of a Gaussian distribution. Considering the square error and the Higgins-Tsokos loss functions, approximate Bayesian confidence intervals for the mean of a normal population are derived. Using normal data and SAS software, the obtained approximate Bayesian confidence intervals were compared to a published Bayesian model. Whereas the published Bayesian method is sensitive to the choice of the hyper-parameters and does not always yield the best confidence intervals, it is shown that the proposed approximate Bayesian approach relies only on the observations and often performs better.

Pattern Recognition For Command And Control Data Systems, Jason Schwier

All Dissertations

To analyze real-world events, researchers collect observation data from an underlying process and construct models to represent the observed situation. In this work, we consider issues that affect the construction and usage of a specific type of model. Markov models are commonly used because their combination of discrete states and stochastic transitions is suited to applications with both deterministic and stochastic components. Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are a class of Markov model commonly used in pattern recognition. We first demonstrate how to construct HMMs using only the observation data, and no a priori information, by extending a previously developed approach …

Constructing Confidence Intervals For Spearman’S Rank Correlation With Ordinal Data: A Simulation Study Comparing Analytic And Bootstrap Methods, John Ruscio

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Research shows good probability coverage using analytic confidence intervals (CIs) for Spearman’s rho with continuous data, but poorer coverage with ordinal data. A simulation study examining the latter case replicated prior results and revealed that coverage of bootstrap CIs was usually as good or better than coverage of analytic CIs.

Interval Estimation For The Ratio Of Percentiles From Two Independent Populations., Pius Matheka Muindi

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Percentiles are used everyday in descriptive statistics and data analysis. In real life, many quantities are normally distributed and normal percentiles are often used to describe those quantities. In life sciences, distributions like exponential, uniform, Weibull and many others are used to model rates, claims, pensions etc. The need to compare two or more independent populations can arise in data analysis. The ratio of percentiles is just one of the many ways of comparing populations. This thesis constructs a large sample confidence interval for the ratio of percentiles whose underlying distributions are known. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate …

Abstracts In High Profile Journals Often Fail To Report Harm, Enrique Bernal-Delgado, Elliot S. Fisher

Dartmouth Scholarship

To describe how frequently harm is reported in the abstract of high impact factor medical journals. We carried out a blinded structured review of a random sample of 363 Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs) carried out on human beings, and published in high impact factor medical journals in 2003. Main endpoint: 1) Proportion of articles reporting harm in the abstract; and 2) Proportion of articles that reported harm in the abstract when harm was reported in the main body of the article. Analysis: Corrected Prevalence Ratio (cPR) and its exact confidence interval were calculated. Non-conditional logistic regression was used.

Significance Tests Harm Progress In Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

Based on a summary of prior literature, I conclude that tests of statistical significance harm scientific progress. Efforts to find exceptions to this conclusion have, to date, turned up none. Even when done correctly, significance tests are dangerous. I show that summaries of scientific research do not require tests of statistical significance. I illustrate the dangers of significance tests by examining an application to the M3-Competition. Although the authors of that reanalysis conducted a proper series of statistical tests, they suggest that the original M3 was not justified in concluding that combined forecasts reduce errors and that the selection of …

Better Binomial Confidence Intervals, James F. Reed Iii

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The construction of a confidence interval for a binomial parameter is a basic analysis in statistical inference. Most introductory statistics textbook authors present the binomial confidence interval based on the asymptotic normality of the sample proportion and estimating the standard error - the Wald method. For the one sample binomial confidence interval the Clopper-Pearson exact method has been regarded as definitive as it eliminates both overshoot and zero width intervals. The Clopper-Pearson exact method is the most conservative and is unquestionably a better alternative to the Wald method. Other viable alternatives include Wilson's Score, the Agresti-Coull method, and the Borkowf …

Confidence Intervals For Predictive Values Using Data From A Case Control Study, Nathaniel David Mercaldo, Xiao-Hua Zhou, Kit F. Lau

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The accuracy of a binary-scale diagnostic test can be represented by sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp) and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV). Although Se and Sp measure the intrinsic accuracy of a diagnostic test that does not depend on the prevalence rate, they do not provide information on the diagnostic accuracy of a particular patient. To obtain this information we need to use PPV and NPV. Since PPV and NPV are functions of both the intrinsic accuracy and the prevalence of the disease, constructing confidence intervals for PPV and NPV for a particular patient in a population with …

Second-Order Accurate Inference On Simple, Partial, And Multiple Correlations, Robert J. Boik, Ben Haaland

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

This article develops confidence interval procedures for functions of simple, partial, and squared multiple correlation coefficients. It is assumed that the observed multivariate data represent a random sample from a distribution that possesses infinite moments, but there is no requirement that the distribution be normal. The coverage error of conventional one-sided large sample intervals decreases at rate 1√n as n increases, where n is an index of sample size. The coverage error of the proposed intervals decreases at rate 1/n as n increases. The results of a simulation study that evaluates the performance of the proposed intervals is …

New Confidence Intervals For The Difference Between Two Sensitivities At A Fixed Level Of Specificity, Gengsheng Qin, Yu-Sheng Hsu, Xiao-Hua Zhou

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

For two continuous-scale diagnostic tests, it is of interest to compare their sensitivities at a predetermined level of specificity. In this paper we propose three new intervals for the difference between two sensitivities at a fixed level of specificity. These intervals are easy to compute. We also conduct simulation studies to compare the relative performance of the new intervals with the existing normal approximation based interval proposed by Wieand et al (1989). Our simulation results show that the newly proposed intervals perform better than the existing normal approximation based interval in terms of coverage accuracy and interval length.

Improved Confidence Intervals For The Sensitivity At A Fixed Level Of Specificity Of A Continuous-Scale Diagnostic Test, Xiao-Hua Zhou, Gengsheng Qin

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

For a continuous-scale test, it is an interest to construct a confidence interval for the sensitivity of the diagnostic test at the cut-off that yields a predetermined level of its specificity (eg. 80%, 90%, or 95%). IN this paper we proposed two new intervals for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test at a fixed level of specificity. We then conducted simulation studies to compare the relative performance of these two intervals with the best existing BCa bootstrap interval, proposed by Platt et al. (2000). Our simulation results showed that the newly proposed intervals are better than the BCa bootstrap …

Some Reflections On Significance Testing, Thomas R. Knapp

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

This essay presents a variation on a theme from my article “The use of tests of statistical significance”, which appeared in the Spring, 1999, issue of Mid-Western Educational Researcher.

Two-Sided Equivalence Testing Of The Difference Between Two Means, R. Clifford Blair, Stephen R. Cole

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Studies designed to examine the equivalence of treatments are increasingly common in social and biomedical research. Herein, we outline the rationale and some nuances underlying equivalence testing of the difference between two means. Specifically, we note the odd relation between tests of hypothesis and confidence intervals in the equivalence setting.