Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Historical Prediction Modeling Approach For Estimating Long-Term Concentrations Of Pm In Cohort Studies Before The 1999 Implementation Of Widespread Monitoring, Sun-Young Kim, Casey Olives, Lianne Sheppard, Paul D. Sampson, Timothy V. Larson, Joel Kaufman

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Introduction: Recent cohort studies use exposure prediction models to estimate the association between long-term residential concentrations of PM_2.5 and health. Because these prediction models rely on PM_2.5 monitoring data, predictions for times before extensive spatial monitoring present a challenge to understanding long-term exposure effects. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Federal Reference Method (FRM) network for PM_2.5 was established in 1999. We evaluated a novel statistical approach to produce high quality exposure predictions from 1980-2010 for epidemiological applications.

Methods: We developed spatio-temporal prediction models using geographic predictors and annual average PM_2.5 data from 1999 through 2010 from …