Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Bayesian Methods In Operational Testing: Enhancing Testing Through Combining Information, Victoria R C Sieck

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

When developing a system, considering system performance from a user perspective can be done through operational testing|assessing the ability of representative users to accomplish tasks with the system in operationally representative environments. This critical process can be expensive and time-consuming. We show how to leverage an existing design of experiments (DOE) process to construct a Bayesian adaptive design. This method allows for interim analyses using predictive probabilities to stop testing early for success or futility. Furthermore, operational environments are directly used in product evaluation. Representative simulations demonstrate reductions in necessary test events. Next, priors are built using developmental testing data. …