Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Using Conformal Win Probability To Predict The Winners Of The Canceled 2020 Ncaa Basketball Tournaments, Chancellor Johnstone, Dan Nettleton

Faculty Publications

The COVID-19 pandemic was responsible for the cancellation of both the men’s and women’s 2020 National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division I basketball tournaments. Starting from the point when the Division I tournaments and unfinished conference tournaments were canceled, we deliver closed-form probabilities for each team of making the Division I tournaments, had they not been canceled, under a simplified method for tournament selection. We also determine probabilities of a team winning March Madness, given a tournament bracket. Our calculations make use of conformal win probabilities derived from conformal predictive distributions. We compare these conformal win probabilities to those generated …