Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Is Technological Progress A Random Walk? Examining Data From Space Travel, Michael Howell, Daniel Berleant, Hyacinthe Aboudja, Richard Segall, Peng-Hung Tsai

Journal of the Arkansas Academy of Science

Improvement in a variety of technologies can often be successful modeled using a general version of Moore’s law (i.e. exponential improvements over time). Another successful approach is Wright’s law, which models increases in technological capability as a function of an effort variable such as production. While these methods are useful, they do not provide prediction distributions, which would enable a better understanding of forecast quality

Farmer and Lafond (2016) developed a forecasting method which produces forecast distributions and is applicable to many kinds of technology. A fundamental assumption of their method is that technological progress can be modeled as a …

Identifying Minimum G Aberration Designs For Hadamard Matrices Of Order 28, Steffany Belcher-Novosad, Debra Ingram

Journal of the Arkansas Academy of Science

No abstract provided.

Curing A Summing Error That Occurs Automatically When Fitting A Function To Binomial Or Poisson Distributed Data, Edwin S. Braithwaite, Wilfred J. Braithwaite

Journal of the Arkansas Academy of Science

Without special precautions a sum-rule error occurs automatically when a chi-squared procedure is used to fit a funtion to binomial or Poisson distributed histogram data if the function has at least one linear parameter. Since the square of the variance per channel is equal to the mean population, errors are usually approximated using (G2~=yi>0)}; this choice for approximating the variance gives a per-channel error weighting of 1/yi that automatically results in a sum-rule error. This sum-rule error consistently and systematically underestimates the total sum of the data points by an amount equal to the value of %*, resulting in …