Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Small Sample Umpu Equivalence Testing Based On Saddlepoint Approximations, Renren Zhao

Doctoral Dissertations

"In the first section, we consider small sample equivalence tests for exponentiality. Statistical inference in this setting is particularly challenging since equivalence testing procedures typically require a much larger sample size, in comparison to classical "difference tests", to perform well. We make use of Butler's marginal likelihood for the shape parameter of a gamma distribution in our development of equivalence tests for exponentiality. We consider two procedures using the principle of confidence interval inclusion, four Bayesian methods, and the uniformly most powerful unbiased (UMPU) test where a saddlepoint approximation to the intractable distribution of a canonical sufficient statistic is used. …

Small Sample Saddlepoint Confidence Intervals In Epidemiology, Pasan Manuranga Edirisinghe

Doctoral Dissertations

"In section 1, we develop a novel method of confidence interval construction for directly standardized rates. These intervals involve saddlepoint approximations to the intractable distribution of a weighted sum of Poisson random variables and the determination of hypothetical Poisson mean values for each of the age groups. Simulation studies show that, in terms of coverage probability and length, the saddlepoint confidence interval (SP) outperforms four competing confidence intervals obtained from the moment matching (M8), gamma-based (G1,G4) and ABC bootstrap (ABC) methods.

In section 2, we first consider Brillinger's classical model for a vital rate estimate with a random denominator. We …

Computational Intelligence Based Complex Adaptive System-Of-Systems Architecture Evolution Strategy, Siddharth Agarwal

Doctoral Dissertations

The dynamic planning for a system-of-systems (SoS) is a challenging endeavor. Large scale organizations and operations constantly face challenges to incorporate new systems and upgrade existing systems over a period of time under threats, constrained budget and uncertainty. It is therefore necessary for the program managers to be able to look at the future scenarios and critically assess the impact of technology and stakeholder changes. Managers and engineers are always looking for options that signify affordable acquisition selections and lessen the cycle time for early acquisition and new technology addition. This research helps in analyzing sequential decisions in an evolving …

Investigation Of Robust Optimization And Evidence Theory With Stochastic Expansions For Aerospace Applications Under Mixed Uncertainty, Harsheel R. Shah

Doctoral Dissertations

One of the primary objectives of this research is to develop a method to model and propagate mixed (aleatory and epistemic) uncertainty in aerospace simulations using DSTE. In order to avoid excessive computational cost associated with large scale applications and the evaluation of Dempster Shafer structures, stochastic expansions are implemented for efficient UQ. The mixed UQ with DSTE approach was demonstrated on an analytical example and high fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of transonic flow over a RAE 2822 airfoil.

Another objective is to devise a DSTE based performance assessment framework through the use of quantification of margins and …

Essays On Unit Root Testing In Time Series, Xiao Zhong

Doctoral Dissertations

"Unit root tests are frequently employed by applied time series analysts to determine if the underlying model that generates an empirical process has a component that can be well-described by a random walk. More specifically, when the time series can be modeled using an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process, such tests aim to determine if the autoregressive (AR) polynomial has one or more unit roots. The effect of economic shocks do not diminish with time when there is one or more unit roots in the AR polynomial, whereas the contribution of shocks decay geometrically when all the roots are outside …