Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Simulations For Designing And Interpreting Intervention Trials In Infectious Diseases., M Elizabeth Halloran, Kari Auranen, Sarah Baird, Nicole E Basta, Steven E Bellan, +Several Additional Authors

Global Health Faculty Publications

BACKGROUND: Interventions in infectious diseases can have both direct effects on individuals who receive the intervention as well as indirect effects in the population. In addition, intervention combinations can have complex interactions at the population level, which are often difficult to adequately assess with standard study designs and analytical methods.

DISCUSSION: Herein, we urge the adoption of a new paradigm for the design and interpretation of intervention trials in infectious diseases, particularly with regard to emerging infectious diseases, one that more accurately reflects the dynamics of the transmission process. In an increasingly complex world, simulations can explicitly represent transmission dynamics, …

Bayesian Model Averaging With Change Points To Assess The Impact Of Vaccination And Public Health Interventions., Esra Kürüm, Joshua L Warren, Cynthia Schuck-Paim, Roger Lustig, Joseph A Lewnard, Rodrigo Fuentes, Christian A W Bruhn, Robert J Taylor, Lone Simonsen, Daniel M Weinberger

Global Health Faculty Publications

Background: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) prevent invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia. However, some low-and middle-income countries have yet to introduce PCV into their immunization programs due, in part, to lack of certainty about the potential impact. Assessing PCV benefits is challenging because specific data on pneumococcal disease are often lacking, and it can be difficult to separate the effects of factors other than the vaccine that could also affect pneumococcal disease rates.

Methods: We assess PCV impact by combining Bayesian model averaging with change-point models to estimate the timing and magnitude of vaccine-associated changes, while controlling for seasonality and other …

Mechanistic Mathematical Models: An Underused Platform For Hpv Research, Marc Ryser, Patti Gravitt, Evan R. Myers

Global Health Faculty Publications

Health economic modeling has become an invaluable methodology for the design and evaluation of clinical and public health interventions against the human papillomavirus (HPV) and associated diseases. At the same time, relatively little attention has been paid to a different yet complementary class of models, namely that of mechanistic mathematical models. The primary focus of mechanistic mathematical models is to better understand the intricate biologic mechanisms and dynamics of disease. Inspired by a long and successful history of mechanistic modeling in other biomedical fields, we highlight several areas of HPV research where mechanistic models have the potential to advance the …

Perspectives On Model Forecasts Of The 2014–2015 Ebola Epidemic In West Africa: Lessons And The Way Forward, Gerardo Chowell, Cecile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Stefano Merler, Alessandro Vespignani

Global Health Faculty Publications

The unprecedented impact and modeling efforts associated with the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa provides a unique opportunity to document the performances and caveats of forecasting approaches used in near-real time for generating evidence and to guide policy. A number of international academic groups have developed and parameterized mathematical models of disease spread to forecast the trajectory of the outbreak. These modeling efforts often relied on limited epidemiological data to derive key transmission and severity parameters, which are needed to calibrate mechanistic models. Here, we provide a perspective on some of the challenges and lessons drawn from these efforts, …

When Is A Randomised Controlled Trial Health Equity Relevant? Development And Validation Of A Conceptual Framework, J. Jull, M. Whitehead, M. Petticrew, E. Kristjansson, D. Gough, Sarah Baird, +Several Additional Authors

Global Health Faculty Publications

Background Randomised controlled trials can provide evidence relevant to assessing the equity impact of an intervention, but such information is often poorly reported. We describe a conceptual framework to identify health equity-relevant randomised trials with the aim of improving the design and reporting of such trials.

Methods An interdisciplinary and international research team engaged in an iterative consensus building process to develop and refine the conceptual framework via face-to-face meetings, teleconferences and email correspondence, including findings from a validation exercise whereby two independent reviewers used the emerging framework to classify a sample of randomised trials.

Results A randomised trial can …