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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Predicting Intraday Financial Market Dynamics Using Takens' Vectors; Incorporating Causality Testing And Machine Learning Techniques, Abubakar-Sadiq Bouda Abdulai
Predicting Intraday Financial Market Dynamics Using Takens' Vectors; Incorporating Causality Testing And Machine Learning Techniques, Abubakar-Sadiq Bouda Abdulai
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Traditional approaches to predicting financial market dynamics tend to be linear and stationary, whereas financial time series data is increasingly nonlinear and non-stationary. Lately, advances in dynamical systems theory have enabled the extraction of complex dynamics from time series data. These developments include theory of time delay embedding and phase space reconstruction of dynamical systems from a scalar time series. In this thesis, a time delay embedding approach for predicting intraday stock or stock index movement is developed. The approach combines methods of nonlinear time series analysis with those of causality testing, theory of dynamical systems and machine learning (artificial …
Comparison Of Two Parameter Estimation Techniques For Stochastic Models, Thomas C. Robacker
Comparison Of Two Parameter Estimation Techniques For Stochastic Models, Thomas C. Robacker
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Parameter estimation techniques have been successfully and extensively applied to deterministic models based on ordinary differential equations but are in early development for stochastic models. In this thesis, we first investigate using parameter estimation techniques for a deterministic model to approximate parameters in a corresponding stochastic model. The basis behind this approach lies in the Kurtz limit theorem which implies that for large populations, the realizations of the stochastic model converge to the deterministic model. We show for two example models that this approach often fails to estimate parameters well when the population size is small. We then develop a …