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Statistics and Probability

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U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

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2015

Causal inference

Articles 1 - 2 of 2

Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Semi-Parametric Estimation And Inference For The Mean Outcome Of The Single Time-Point Intervention In A Causally Connected Population, Oleg Sofrygin, Mark J. Van Der Laan Dec 2015

Semi-Parametric Estimation And Inference For The Mean Outcome Of The Single Time-Point Intervention In A Causally Connected Population, Oleg Sofrygin, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

We study the framework for semi-parametric estimation and statistical inference for the sample average treatment-specific mean effects in observational settings where data are collected on a single network of connected units (e.g., in the presence of interference or spillover). Despite recent advances, many of the current statistical methods rely on estimation techniques that assume a particular parametric model for the outcome, even though some of the most important statistical assumptions required by these models are most likely violated in the observational network settings, often resulting in invalid and anti-conservative statistical inference. In this manuscript, we rely on the recent methodological …


Adaptive Pre-Specification In Randomized Trials With And Without Pair-Matching, Laura B. Balzer, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Maya L. Petersen May 2015

Adaptive Pre-Specification In Randomized Trials With And Without Pair-Matching, Laura B. Balzer, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Maya L. Petersen

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In randomized trials, adjustment for measured covariates during the analysis can reduce variance and increase power. To avoid misleading inference, the analysis plan must be pre-specified. However, it is unclear a priori which baseline covariates (if any) should be included in the analysis. Consider, for example, the Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health (SEARCH) trial for HIV prevention and treatment. There are 16 matched pairs of communities and many potential adjustment variables, including region, HIV prevalence, male circumcision coverage and measures of community-level viral load. In this paper, we propose a rigorous procedure to data-adaptively select the adjustment set …