Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Estimation Problems In Complex Field Studies With Deep Interactions: Time-To-Event And Local Regression Models For Environmental Effects On Vital Rates, Krzysztof M. Sakrejda

Doctoral Dissertations

Field studies that measure vital rates in context over extended time periods are a cornerstone of our understanding of population processes. These studies inform us about the relationship between biological process and environmental noise in an irreplaceable way. These data sets bring ``big data'' and ``big model'' challenges, which limit the application of standard software (e.g., \textbf{BUGS}). The environmental sensitivity of vital rates is also expected to exhibit interactions and non-linearity, which typically result in difficult model selection questions in large data sets. Finally, long-term ecological data sets often contain complex temporal structure. In commonly applied discrete-time models complex temporal …

Wind Power Capacity Value Metrics And Variability: A Study In New England, Frederick W. Letson

Doctoral Dissertations

Capacity value is the contribution of a power plant to the ability of the power system to meet high demand. As wind power penetration in New England, and worldwide, increases so does the importance of identifying the capacity contribution made by wind power plants. It is critical to accurately characterize the capacity value of these wind power plants and the variability of the capacity value over the long term. This is important in order to avoid the cost of keeping extra power plants operational while still being able to cover the demand for power reliably. This capacity value calculation is …

Variable Selection In Single Index Varying Coefficient Models With Lasso, Peng Wang

Doctoral Dissertations

Single index varying coefficient model is a very attractive statistical model due to its ability to reduce dimensions and easy-of-interpretation. There are many theoretical studies and practical applications with it, but typically without features of variable selection, and no public software is available for solving it. Here we propose a new algorithm to fit the single index varying coefficient model, and to carry variable selection in the index part with LASSO. The core idea is a two-step scheme which alternates between estimating coefficient functions and selecting-and-estimating the single index. Both in simulation and in application to a Geoscience dataset, we …

Threat Analysis, Countermeaures And Design Strategies For Secure Computation In Nanometer Cmos Regime, Raghavan Kumar

Doctoral Dissertations

Advancements in CMOS technologies have led to an era of Internet Of Things (IOT), where the devices have the ability to communicate with each other apart from their computational power. As more and more sensitive data is processed by embedded devices, the trend towards lightweight and efficient cryptographic primitives has gained significant momentum. Achieving a perfect security in silicon is extremely difficult, as the traditional cryptographic implementations are vulnerable to various active and passive attacks. There is also a threat in the form of "hardware Trojans" inserted into the supply chain by the untrusted third-party manufacturers for economic incentives. Apart …

Physical Activity Classification With Conditional Random Fields, Evan L. Ray

Doctoral Dissertations

In this thesis we develop methods for classifying physical activity using accelerometer recordings. We cast this as a problem of classification in time series with moderate to high dimensional observations at each time point. Specifically, we observe a vector of summary statistics of the accelerometer signal at each point in time, and we wish to use these observations to estimate the type and intensity of physical activity the individual engaged in as it changes over time. Our methods are based on Conditional Random Fields, which allow us to capture temporal dependence in an individual’s physical activity type without requiring us …

Developing An Optimal Model For Infant Home Visitation, Isaac Atuahene

Doctoral Dissertations

The United States, Great Britain, Denmark, Canada and many other countries have accepted home visitation (HV) as a promising strategy for interventions for infants after births and for their mothers. Prior HV studies have focused on theoretical foundations, evaluations of programs, cost/benefit analysis and cost estimation by using hospital/payer/insurance data to prove its effectiveness and high cost. As governments and private organizations continue to fund HVs, it is an opportune time to develop and formulate operations research (OR) models of HV coverage, quality and cost so they might be used in program implementation as done for adult home healthcare (HHC) …

Evaluating The Effects Of Standardized Patient Care Pathways On Clinical Outcomes, Anna V. Romanova

Doctoral Dissertations

The main focus of this study is to create a standardized approach to evaluating the impact of the patient care pathways across all major disease categories and key outcome measures in a hospital setting when randomized clinical trials are not feasible. Toward this goal I identify statistical methods, control factors, and adjustments that can correct for potential confounding in observational studies. I investigate the efficiency of existing bias correction methods under varying conditions of imbalanced samples through a Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation results are then utilized in a case study for one of the largest primary diagnosis areas, chronic …

Nanoscaled Cellulose And Its Carbonaceous Material: Application And Local Structure Investigation, Yujie Meng

Doctoral Dissertations

In this dissertation, cellulose nanocrystals three-dimensional morphology, size distribution, and the crystal structure were statistically and quantitatively investigated. Lognormal distribution was identified as the most likely for cellulose nanocrystals’ size distribution. Height and width dimensions were shown to decrease toward the ends from the midpoint of individual CNCs, implying a spindle-like shape. XRD analysis of crystallite size accompanied with TEM and AFM measurements revealed that the cross-sectional dimensions of individual switchgrass CNC were either rectangular or elliptical shape, with an approximately 3~5 nm [nanometer] lateral element length range. A sponge-like carbon aerogel from microfibril cellulose with high porosity, ultra-low density, …

Numerical Approximation Of Stochastic Differential Equations Driven By Levy Motion With Infinitely Many Jumps, Ernest Jum

Doctoral Dissertations

In this dissertation, we consider the problem of simulation of stochastic differential equations driven by pure jump Levy processes with infinite jump activity. Examples include, the class of stochastic differential equations driven by stable and tempered stable Levy processes, which are suited for modeling of a wide range of heavy tail phenomena. We replace the small jump part of the driving Levy process by a suitable Brownian motion, as proposed by Asmussen and Rosinski, which results in a jump-diffusion equation. We obtain L^p [the space of measurable functions with a finite p-norm], for p greater than or equal to …

Numerical Methods For Deterministic And Stochastic Phase Field Models Of Phase Transition And Related Geometric Flows, Yukun Li

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation consists of three integral parts with each part focusing on numerical approximations of several partial differential equations (PDEs). The goals of each part are to design, to analyze and to implement continuous or discontinuous Galerkin finite element methods for the underlying PDE problem.

Part One studies discontinuous Galerkin (DG) approximations of two phase field models, namely, the Allen-Cahn and Cahn-Hilliard equations, and their related curvature-driven geometric problems, namely, the mean curvature flow and the Hele-Shaw flow. We derive two discrete spectrum estimates, which play an important role in proving the sharper error estimates which only depend on a …

Monte Carlo Methods In Finance, Je Guk Kim

Doctoral Dissertations

Monte Carlo method has received significant consideration from the context of quantitative finance mainly due to its ease of implementation for complex problems in the field. Among topics of its application to finance, we address two topics: (1) optimal importance sampling for the Laplace transform of exponential Brownian functionals and (2) analysis on the convergence of quasi-regression method for pricing American option. In the first part of this dissertation, we present an asymptotically optimal importance sampling method for Monte Carlo simulation of the Laplace transform of exponential Brownian functionals via Large deviations principle and calculus of variations the closed form …

Sensitivity Of Mixed Models To Computational Algorithms Of Time Series Data, Gunaime Nevine

Doctoral Dissertations

Statistical analysis is influenced by implementation of the algorithms used to execute the computations associated with various statistical techniques. Over many years; very important criteria for model comparison has been studied and examined, and two algorithms on a single dataset have been performed numerous times. The goal of this research is not comparing two or more models on one dataset, but comparing models with numerical algorithms that have been used to solve them on the same dataset.

In this research, different models have been broadly applied in modeling and their contrasting which are affected by the numerical algorithms in different …

Small Sample Umpu Equivalence Testing Based On Saddlepoint Approximations, Renren Zhao

Doctoral Dissertations

"In the first section, we consider small sample equivalence tests for exponentiality. Statistical inference in this setting is particularly challenging since equivalence testing procedures typically require a much larger sample size, in comparison to classical "difference tests", to perform well. We make use of Butler's marginal likelihood for the shape parameter of a gamma distribution in our development of equivalence tests for exponentiality. We consider two procedures using the principle of confidence interval inclusion, four Bayesian methods, and the uniformly most powerful unbiased (UMPU) test where a saddlepoint approximation to the intractable distribution of a canonical sufficient statistic is used. …

Small Sample Saddlepoint Confidence Intervals In Epidemiology, Pasan Manuranga Edirisinghe

Doctoral Dissertations

"In section 1, we develop a novel method of confidence interval construction for directly standardized rates. These intervals involve saddlepoint approximations to the intractable distribution of a weighted sum of Poisson random variables and the determination of hypothetical Poisson mean values for each of the age groups. Simulation studies show that, in terms of coverage probability and length, the saddlepoint confidence interval (SP) outperforms four competing confidence intervals obtained from the moment matching (M8), gamma-based (G1,G4) and ABC bootstrap (ABC) methods.

In section 2, we first consider Brillinger's classical model for a vital rate estimate with a random denominator. We …

Computational Intelligence Based Complex Adaptive System-Of-Systems Architecture Evolution Strategy, Siddharth Agarwal

Doctoral Dissertations

The dynamic planning for a system-of-systems (SoS) is a challenging endeavor. Large scale organizations and operations constantly face challenges to incorporate new systems and upgrade existing systems over a period of time under threats, constrained budget and uncertainty. It is therefore necessary for the program managers to be able to look at the future scenarios and critically assess the impact of technology and stakeholder changes. Managers and engineers are always looking for options that signify affordable acquisition selections and lessen the cycle time for early acquisition and new technology addition. This research helps in analyzing sequential decisions in an evolving …

Investigation Of Robust Optimization And Evidence Theory With Stochastic Expansions For Aerospace Applications Under Mixed Uncertainty, Harsheel R. Shah

Doctoral Dissertations

One of the primary objectives of this research is to develop a method to model and propagate mixed (aleatory and epistemic) uncertainty in aerospace simulations using DSTE. In order to avoid excessive computational cost associated with large scale applications and the evaluation of Dempster Shafer structures, stochastic expansions are implemented for efficient UQ. The mixed UQ with DSTE approach was demonstrated on an analytical example and high fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of transonic flow over a RAE 2822 airfoil.

Another objective is to devise a DSTE based performance assessment framework through the use of quantification of margins and …

Essays On Unit Root Testing In Time Series, Xiao Zhong

Doctoral Dissertations

"Unit root tests are frequently employed by applied time series analysts to determine if the underlying model that generates an empirical process has a component that can be well-described by a random walk. More specifically, when the time series can be modeled using an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process, such tests aim to determine if the autoregressive (AR) polynomial has one or more unit roots. The effect of economic shocks do not diminish with time when there is one or more unit roots in the AR polynomial, whereas the contribution of shocks decay geometrically when all the roots are outside …