Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

An Early Assessment Of Medium Range Monsoon Precipitation Forecasts From The Latest High-Resolution Ncep-Gfs (T1534) Model Over South Asia, Satya Prakash, Imaranali M. Momin, Ashis K. Mitra, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Fanglin Yang, Vijay Tallapragada

Publications and Research

Reliable prediction of the South Asian monsoon rainfall and its variability is crucial for various hydrological applications and early warning systems. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction – Global Forecast System (NCEP–GFS) is one of the popular global deterministic numerical weather prediction models, which is recently upgraded from T574 to T1534. In this paper, medium range monsoon precipitation forecasts from both the T1534 and T574 models are critically evaluated over the South Asia for the peak monsoon months (July and August) of 2015. Although both the versions of GFS model show similar large-scale monsoon rainfall patterns, the dry bias over …