Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

The Hot Hand In Number Matching Lottery Games, Mintaek Lee

Mintaek Lee

This project examines how many respondents are influenced by the Hot Hand Fallacy and Law of Small Numbers when playing a number matching lottery game. Three sets of previous winning numbers for a lottery game were provided to participants, and they were asked to estimate the likelihood of each number being drawn in the next drawing. Responses from people with less statistical background were more distorted from the theoretical probability than responses from people with more statistical background. The majority of the responses were sufficient to verify the initial hypothesis. The linear regression model was also constructed to predict the …