Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

The Flow Of Power: Addressing Asymmetric Flood Risk In The Upper Valley, Eric Vr Hryniewicz

Geography Undergraduate Senior Theses

Floods are the most damaging natural disasters in America. Land use change in upland watersheds can increase the probability and severity of floods (Bronstert, Niehoff, & Burger, 2002). When watersheds are divided by political and private property boundaries it leads to a misalignment of incentives in which downstream users lack recourse for upstream land use decisions contributing to flood risk. In this thesis, researchers interrogate the attributes of town officials and towns that determine what motivates town governments to act on flooding and what motivates and enables town officials to collaborate on planning and how do they collaborate in practice. …

Flood Hazard And Risk Analyses In The Republic Of Panama: A Case Study From The Juan Diaz River Watershed In Panama City, Virgilio De Jesus Quintero

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Flooding is the natural hazard with most occurrences in Panama. Its frequency and magnitude have increased over the years. This dissertation analyzes Panama’s flood activity in order to better understand flood hazards, the current evolution of Panamanian perceptions of flood risk, and the incorporation of indigenous knowledge used to mitigate flood hazards. The first chapter developed a baseline of past and current flood inventory in Panama, which required the use of flood historical data, thematic cartography, and Geographic Information Science (GIS). This chapter shows Panama has experienced floods in varying degrees. Through the spatial and temporal distribution of floods from …

Death-Related Anxiety Associated With Riskier Decision-Making Irrespective Of Framing: A Bayesian Model Comparison, Blaine Tomkins

Psychology Faculty Publications

A commonly reported finding is that anxious individuals are less likely to make risky decisions. However, no studies have examined whether this association extends to death-related anxiety. The present study examined how groups low, moderate, and high in death-related anxiety make decisions with varying levels of risk. Participants completed a series of hypothetical bets in which the probability of a win was systematically manipulated. High-anxiety individuals displayed the greatest risk-taking behavior, followed by the moderate-anxiety group, with the low-anxiety group being most risk-averse. Experiment 2 tested this association further by framing outcomes in terms of losses, rather than gains. A …

Fact Sheet - Human Settlements: Climate Change Impacts And Risks, Winston T. L. Chow, Richard Dawson, Bruce Glavovic, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Mark Pelling, William Solecki

Research Collection College of Integrative Studies

This regional factsheet on cities and human settlements gives a snapshot of the key findings of the Sixth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2022 - Impacts. Adaptation and Vulnerability, distilled from the relevant Chapters and Cross-Chapter Papers, the Technical Summary and the Global to Regional Atlas.

The Effect Of High Elevation Weather Stations On The Usda's Pasture, Rangeland, And Forage Insurance Program, Wyatt Matthew Feuz

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

This paper examines the effect of high elevation weather stations on the rainfall index used by the Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage insurance program. Weather station data for the state of Utah is used to identify high elevation weather stations and their location. Utilizing the corresponding rainfall index data, the effect of the high elevation weather stations is determined. This paper finds when high elevation weather stations begin reporting there is a jump up of 19.01–27.88 percentage points on average in the rainfall index for the corresponding grid locations. This indicates the rainfall index may not accurately represent actual precipitation amounts …

Studying The Relationship Between Financial Risk Aversion And Income With The Jeopardy! Daily Double, Miles Johnson

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

It has long been up for debate as to whether there is a link between financial risk aversion and income. This study’s purpose is to, using data from the game show Jeopardy!, investigate this question through analytical research. This study made use of multiple regression analyses in order to examine the relationship between income and risk aversion in Jeopardy! contestants who appeared on the show between January 2019 and October 2020. Specifically, this study looked to isolate the potential impact a contestant’s estimated annual income had on their willingness to bet on the Jeopardy! Daily Double question. It was …

Fields Brook Superfund Site: Race, Class, And Environmental Justice In A Blasted Landscape, Richard C. Bargielski

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In 1980, the United States Congress passed the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). This federal law provided the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) with the legal tools necessary to pursue polluters who had improperly stored or disposed hazardous wastes. Since its passage, more than a thousand sites have been added to the National Priorities List (NPL), but only a fraction have been cleaned up. Proponents of neoliberalism argue that aggressive environmental policies such as CERCLA harm workers by making it impossible for businesses to operate profitably. This coincides with a drop of nearly 50% in the U.S. …

Effects Of Social Cues On Biosecurity Compliance In Livestock Facilities: Evidence From Experimental Simulations, Luke Trinity, Scott C. Merrill, Eric M. Clark, Christopher J. Koliba, Asim Zia, Gabriela Bucini, Julia M. Smith

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Disease outbreaks in U.S. animal livestock industries have economic impacts measured in hundreds of millions of dollars per year. Biosecurity, or procedures intended to protect animals against disease, is known to be effective at reducing infection risk at facilities. Yet, to the detriment of animal health, humans do not always follow biosecurity protocols. Human behavioral factors have been shown to influence willingness to follow biosecurity protocols. Here we show how social cues may affect cooperation with a biosecurity practice. Participants were immersed in a simulated swine production facility through a graphical user interface and prompted to make a decision that …

Garch Modeling Of Value At Risk And Expected Shortfall Using Bayesian Model Averaging, Ismail Kheir

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis conducts Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation using GARCH modeling and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). BMA considers multiple models weighted by some information criterion. Through BMA, this thesis finds that VaR and ES estimates can be improved through enhanced modeling of the data generation process.

A Systematic Assessment Of Socio-Economic Impacts Of Prolonged Episodic Volcano Crises, Justin Peers

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Uncertainty surrounding volcanic activity can lead to socio-economic crises with or without an eruption as demonstrated by the post-1978 response to unrest of Long Valley Caldera (LVC), CA. Extensive research in physical sciences provides a foundation on which to assess direct impacts of hazards, but fewer resources have been dedicated towards understanding human responses to volcanic risk. To evaluate natural hazard risk issues at LVC, a multi-hazard, mail-based, household survey was conducted to compare perceptions of volcanic, seismic, and wildfire hazards. Impacts of volcanic activity on housing prices and businesses were examined at the county-level for three volcanoes with a …

Willingness To Comply With Biosecurity In Livestock Facilities: Evidence From Experimental Simulations, Scott C. Merrill, Susan Moegenburg, Christopher J. Koliba, Asim Zia, Luke Trinity, Eric Clark, Gabriela Bucini, Serge Wiltshire, Timothy Sellnow, Deanna Sellnow, Julia M. Smith

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. Disease in U.S. animal livestock industries annually costs over a billion dollars. Adoption and compliance with biosecurity practices is necessary to successfully reduce the risk of disease introduction or spread. Yet, a variety …

Humans As Sensors: The Influence Of Extreme Heat Vulnerability Factors On Risk Perceptions Across The Contiguous United States, Forrest Scott Schoessow

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Extreme heat events are the deadliest natural hazard in the United States and will continue to get worse in the coming years due to the effects of climate change. As a result, more people will experience deadly heat conditions. This highlights the need for decision-makers to develop better strategies for preventing future losses. How badly individuals are affected by extreme heat depends on many circumstances, such as how high temperatures actually are, weather conditions, and location. For example, a dry 90 °F day in Phoenix is probably more tolerable than a humid 90 °F day in New Orleans for most …

Managing Risks Of Market Price Uncertainty For A Microgrid Operation, Sriram Raghavan

Masters Theses

"After deregulation of electricity in the United States, the day-ahead and real-time markets allow load serving entities and generation companies to bid and purchase/sell energy under the supervision of the independent system operator (ISO). The electricity market prices are inherently uncertain, and can be highly volatile. The main objective of this thesis is to hedge against the risk from the uncertainty of the market prices when purchasing/selling energy from/to the market. The energy manager can also schedule distributed generators (DGs) and storage of the microgrid to meet the demand, in addition to energy transactions from the market. The risk measure …

A Qualitative Examination Of The Perception Of Risk In Warnings For Severe Weather, Teresa Simmons

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

In the past decade, weather disasters have claimed thousands of lives and resulted in billions of dollars in damages. Awareness of a storm threats can occur hours or days in advance, but disaster assessments indicate many people do not heed storm warnings. This problem is old. Despite 50 years of research, and new technologies and training to improve responsiveness, the basic issue– understanding how people interpret and respond to weather warnings–persists. An exploratory study that incorporated human behavior theories and communication models not traditionally associated with severe weather analysis was conducted to learn how weather risks are perceived by nonscientists. …

Revealing The Vulnerability Of Urban Communities To Flood Hazard In Tanzania: A Case Of The Dar Es Salaam City Ecosystem, Herbert Hambati, Greg Gaston

International Journal of Geospatial and Environmental Research

Losses from environmental flood hazards have escalated in recent decades, prompting a reorientation of emergency management systems away from simple post event response. There is a noticeable change in policy, with more emphasis on loss reduction through mitigation, preparedness, and recovery projects and programs. Effective mitigation of losses from flood hazards requires hazard identification, an assessment of all the hazards likely to affect a given place and people, and risk-reduction measures that are compatible across a multitude of hazards. The degree to which populations are vulnerable to flood hazards, however, is not solely dependent upon proximity to the source of …

Recent Periods Of Financial Turbulence On The Russian Stock Market And Their Effect On Price Correlation And Value At Risk, Alexander Logoveev, Gregory Cherinko

Undergraduate Economic Review

The aim of this article is to observe and analyze the recent periods of financial turbulence on the Russian stock market and determine their influence on the correlation coefficients between asset prices and the Value at Risk measure for a portfolio. Our task was to describe the previously observed phenomenon of correlation enlargement during times of financial crises deemed in our research as separate Black Swans. Based on up-to-date financial data analysis we determined correlation trends that can be useful in risk management and applied the Value at Risk method.

Helping A Microfinance Institution Select Its Clients: A Risk Analysis Using Social Networks, Sayantan Mitra, Varunavi Newar

Black & Gold

This paper formulates an objective mathematical model for a Microfinance Institution (MFI) to measure the credit worthiness associated with a potential client. We use concepts from network theory to determine the credit worthiness of an individual in relation to other households in the community. We use the concept of eigenvector centrality to evaluate the relative credit worthiness in the network. The latter part of the model focuses on the absolute measures of credit worthiness such as income, ownership of assets and risk of the proposed investment. This model would help MFIs reduce the risk of borrowing by ensuring that there …

The Routine Disaster: A Case Study In El Salvador, Tyler M. Barton

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports - Open

A 2010 report by the UN Disaster Assessment and Coordination ranked El Salvador as the most vulnerable country in the world to natural disasters, with roughly 95% of the population at risk. The combination of recurring natural disasters and high vulnerability in a relatively small country has led to repeated exposure of local residents to significant natural phenomena of all sorts, including earthquakes, flooding, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and hurricanes.

The effect of disaster assistance can be multi-faceted and this report examines the case of flooding hazards of a small town in the south-eastern San Miguel region of the country, called …

Evaluating Small Drone Surveillance Capabilities To Enhance Traffic Conformance Intelligence, Brian Cusack, Reza Khaleghparast

Australian Security and Intelligence Conference

The availability of cheap small physical drones that fly around and have a variety of visual and sensor networks attached invites investigation for work applications. In this research we assess the capability of a set of commercially available drones (VTOL) that cost less than $1000 (Cheap is a relative term and we consider anything less than $5000 relatively cheap). The assessment reviews the capability to provide secure and safe motor vehicle surveillance for conformance intelligence. The evaluation was conducted by initially estimating a set of requirements that would satisfy an ideal surveillance situation and then by comparing a sample of …

Creating An Operational Security Management Structure For Inimical Environments: Papua New Guinea As A Case Study, William J. Bailey

Australian Security and Intelligence Conference

Security is a necessary cost for businesses wishing to operate in the developing economy of Papua New Guinea. The country continues to face levels of crime and violence out of proportion to other East Asian countries; which deters many would be investors. However, the potential in PNG is vast and eagerly sought after despite the high costs required to operate without harm, therefore, it is necessary manage the security situation. Experience from similar countries has shown by using optimal security management systems and structures it is possible to work safely, securely and effectively, but this requires a comprehensive security, threat …

Testing The Waters: Local Users, Sea Level Rise, And The Productive Usability Of Interactive Geovisualizations, Daniel Richards

English Faculty Publications

This paper explores the potential for technical communicators to employ usability research with risk-based interactive geovisualization technologies as a method of cultivating "critical rhetorics of risk communication" for local communities. Through integrating theories from usability studies and risk communication, I offer some new directions for thinking about the productive usability of online, participatory technologies that promote citizen engagement in science. I argue that the key tenets of productive usability afford technical communicators the opportunity to build localized knowledge of risk in real, local users, which in turn improves the capacity for a community and its stakeholders to more effectively communicate …

Judging Dread: A Quantitative Investigation Of Affect, Psychometric Dread And Risk Consequence, Melvyn Griffiths

Theses: Doctorates and Masters

Risk is generally understood as a product of the likelihood and consequence of an event. However, the way in which estimations of consequences are formed is unclear due to the complexities of human perception. In particular, the influence of Affect, defined as positive or negative qualities subjectively assigned to stimuli, may skew risk consequence judgements. Thus a clearer understanding of the role of Affect in risk consequence estimations has significant implications for risk management, risk communication and policy formulation.

In the Psychometric tradition of risk perception, Affect has become almost synonymous with the concept of Dread, despite Dread being measured …

Keeping In Touch: Exchange As An Adaptive Strategy In Southern Nevada, Timothy Joshua Ferguson

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Archaeologists have always wondered about the extent of vessel movement in the American Southwest. Identifying vessel movement allows for the study of social interactions across a region and the role of ceramics in the adaptive processes of agriculturalists living in marginal, highly variable environments. In many instances, exchange may act as a way to reduce the risk of resource shortfalls by creating social ties in other areas. This research investigated the changing risk reduction strategies of households in the lowland Virgin region of southern Nevada by using geochemical methods to trace the exchange of locally produced pottery. It was hypothesized …

Multi-Stakeholder Case Prioritization In Digital Investigations, Joshua I. James

Journal of Digital Forensics, Security and Law

This work examines the problem of case prioritization in digital investigations for better utilization of limited criminal investigation resources. Current methods of case prioritization, as well as observed prioritization methods used in digital forensic investigation laboratories are examined. After, a multi-stakeholder approach to case prioritization is given that may help reduce reputational risk to digital forensic laboratories while improving resource allocation. A survey is given that shows differing opinions of investigation priority between Law Enforcement and the public that is used in the development of a prioritization model. Finally, an example case is given to demonstrate the practicality of the …

Charting A New Course For The Colorado River: A Summary Of Guiding Principles, Colorado River Research Group

Books, Reports, and Studies

[4] p. : color illustrations ; 28 cm.

Misidentification Of Tansy, Tanacetum Macrophyllum, As Yarrow, Achillea Grandifolia: A Health Risk Or Benefit?, Niko Radulovic, Polina Blagojevic, Danielle Skropeta, Aleksandra Zarubica, Bojan Zlatkovic, Radosav Palic´

Danielle Skropeta

Tansy, Tanacetum macrophyllum (Waldst. & Kit.) Sch. Bip., is often misidentified by herb collectors as yarrow, Achillea grand folia Friv. With the former, cases of poisoning induced by its ingestion are well documented, but the latter is widely used for ethnopharmacological purposes. The aim of this study was to estimate, based on the volatile metabolite profiles of the two species, the potential health risk connected with their misidentification. GC and GC-MS analysis of the essential oils hydrodistilled using a Clevenger-type apparatus from A. grandifolia, T macrophyllum, and two plant samples (reputedly of A. grandifolia, but in fact mixtures of A. …

The Place Of Education In Building Disaster Resilience: A Strategic Examination, Neil Dufty

Neil Dufty

No abstract provided.

Towards A Conceptual Model Of User Acceptance Of Location-Based Emergency Services, Anas Aloudat, Katina Michael

Professor Katina Michael

This paper investigates the introduction of location-based services by government as part of an all-hazards approach to modern emergency management solutions. Its main contribution is in exploring the determinants of an individual’s acceptance or rejection of location services. The authors put forward a conceptual model to better predict why an individual would accept or reject such services, especially with respect to emergencies. While it may be posited by government agencies that individuals would unanimously wish to accept life-saving and life-sustaining location services for their well-being, this view remains untested. The theorised determinants include: visibility of the service solution, perceived service …

The Future Prospects Of Embedded Microchips In Humans As Unique Identifiers: The Risks Versus The Rewards, Katina Michael, M.G. Michael

Professor Katina Michael

Microchip implants for humans are not new. Placing heart pacemakers in humans for prosthesis is now considered a straightforward procedure. In more recent times we have begun to use brain pacemakers for therapeutic purposes to combat illnesses such as epilepsy, Parkinson’s Disease, and severe depression. Microchips are even being placed inside prosthetic knees and hips during restorative procedures to help in the gathering of post-operative analytics that can aid rehabilitation further. While medical innovations that utilise microchips abound, over the last decade we have begun to see the potential use of microchip implants for non-medical devices in humans, namely for …

Slides: Envirofit: Making The World Fit For Humanity, Jessica Alderman

2012 Energy Justice Conference and Technology Exposition (September 17-18)

Presenter: Jessica Alderman, Director, ENVIROFIT

15 slides