Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Quantifying Temporal Change In Biodiversity: Challenges And Opportunities, Maria Dornelas, Anne E. Magurran, Stephen T. Buckland, Anne Chao, Robin L. Chazdon, Robert K. Colwell, Tom Curtis, Kevin J. Gaston, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Matthew A. Kosnik, Brian Mcgill, Jenny L. Mccune, Hélène Morlon, Peter J. Mumby, Lise Øvreås, Angelika Studeny, Mark Vellend

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

Growing concern about biodiversity loss underscores the need to quantify and understand temporal change. Here, we review the opportunities presented by biodiversity time series, and address three related issues: (i) recognizing the characteristics of temporal data; (ii) selecting appropriate statistical procedures for analysing temporal data; and (iii) inferring and forecasting biodiversity change. With regard to the first issue, we draw attention to defining characteristics of biodiversity time series-lack of physical boundaries, unidimensionality, autocorrelation and directionality-that inform the choice of analytic methods. Second, we explore methods of quantifying change in biodiversity at different timescales, noting that autocorrelation can be viewed as …