Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Cellulosic Biofuels: Expert Views On Prospects For Advancement, Erin D. Baker, Jeffrey M. Keisler

Management Science and Information Systems Faculty Publication Series

In this paper we structure, obtain and analyze results of an expert elicitation on the relationship between U. S. government Research & Development funding and the likelihood of achieving advances in cellulosic biofuel technologies. While there was disagreement among the experts on each of the technologies, the patterns of disagreement suggest several distinct strategies. Selective Thermal Processing appears to be the most promising path, with the main question being how much funding is required to achieve success. Thus, a staged investment in this path looks promising. With respect to gasification, there remains fundamental disagreement over whether success is possible even …