Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

The Shortfalls Of Vulnerability Indexes For Public Health Decision-Making In The Face Of Emergent Crises: The Case Of Covid-19 Vaccine Uptake In Virginia, Lydia Cleveland Sa, Erika Frydenlund

VMASC Publications

Equitable and effective vaccine uptake is a key issue in addressing COVID-19. To achieve this, we must comprehensively characterize the context-specific socio-behavioral and structural determinants of vaccine uptake. However, to quickly focus public health interventions, state agencies and planners often rely on already existing indexes of "vulnerability." Many such "vulnerability indexes" exist and become benchmarks for targeting interventions in wide ranging scenarios, but they vary considerably in the factors and themes that they cover. Some are even uncritical of the use of the word "vulnerable," which should take on different meanings in different contexts. The objective of this study is …

Computational Decision Support For Socio-Technical Awareness Of Land-Use Planning Under Complexity—A Dam Resilience Planning Case Study, Andreas Tolk, Jennifer A. Richkus, F. Leron Shults, Wesley J. Wildman

VMASC Publications

Land-use planning for modern societies requires technical competence as well as social competence. We therefore propose an integrative solution enabling better land-use planning and management through better-informed decision-making. We adapt a method developed for cross-disciplinary team building to identify the stakeholders and their various objectives and value systems. We use these results to populate artificial societies embedded into a dynamic data analytics framework as a tool to identify, explore, and visualize the challenges resulting from the different objectives and value systems in land-use planning and management. To prove the feasibility of the proposed solution, we present two use cases from …

Understanding And Assessing Demographic (In)Equity Resulting From Extreme Heat Exposure Due To Lack Of Tree Canopies In Norfolk, Va Using Agent-Based Modeling, Virginia Zamponi, Kevin O'Brien, Erik Jensen, Brandon Feldhaus, Russell Moore, Christopher J. Lynch, Ross Gore

VMASC Publications

Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can result in illness and death. In urban areas of dense concentrations of pavement, buildings, and other surfaces that absorb and retain heat, extreme heat conditions can arise regularly and create harmful environmental exposures for residents daily during certain parts of the year. Tree canopies provide shade and help to cool the environment, making mature trees with large canopies a simple and effective way to reduce urban heat. We develop a demographically representative 1 (agent): 1 (person) agent-based model to understand the extent to which different demographics of residents in Norfolk, VA are equitably shaded …

Estimating The Health Effects Of Adding Bicycle And Pedestrian Paths At The Census Tract Level: Multiple Model Comparison, Ross J. Gore, Christopher Lynch, Craig Jordan, Andrew Collins, R. Michael Robinson, Gabrielle Fuller, Pearson Ames, Prateek Keerthi, Yash Kandukuri

VMASC Publications

Background: Adding additional bicycle and pedestrian paths to an area can lead to improved health outcomes for residents over time. However, quantitatively determining which areas benefit more from bicycle and pedestrian paths, how many miles of bicycle and pedestrian paths are needed, and the health outcomes that may be most improved remain open questions.

Objective: Our work provides and evaluates a methodology that offers actionable insight for city-level planners, public health officials, and decision makers tasked with the question “To what extent will adding specified bicycle and pedestrian path mileage to a census tract improve residents’ health outcomes over time?” …

Combining Green Metrics And Digital Twins For Sustainability Planning And Governance Of Smart Buildings And Cities, Casey R. Corrado, Suzanne M. Delong, Emily G. Holt, Edward Y. Hua, Andreas Tolk

VMASC Publications

Creating a more sustainable world will require a coordinated effort to address the rise of social, economic, and environmental concerns resulting from the continuous growth of cities. Supporting planners with tools to address them is pivotal, and sustainability is one of the main objectives. Modeling and simulation augmenting digital twins can play an important role to implement these tools. Although various green best practices have been utilized over time and there are related attempts at measuring green success, works in the published literature tend to focus on addressing a single problem (e.g., energy efficiency), and a comprehensive approach that takes …

Human Ergonomic Simulation To Support The Design Of An Exoskeleton For Lashing/De-Lashing Operations Of Containers Cargo, Francesco Longo, Antonio Padovano, Vittorio Solina, Virginia D' Augusta, Stefan Venzl, Roberto Calbi, Michele Bartuni, Ornella Anastasi, Rafael Diaz

VMASC Publications

Lashing and de-lashing operations of containers cargo on board containerships are considered as quite strenuous activities in which operators are required to work continuously over a 6 or 8 hours shift with very limited break. This is mostly because containerships need to leave the port as soon as possible and containers loading and unloading operations must be executed with very high productivity (stay moored in a port is a totally unproductive time for a ship and a loss-making business for a shipping company). Operators performing lashing and de-lashing operations are subjected to intense ergonomic stress and uncomfortable working postures. To …

Human Factors, Ergonomics And Industry 4.0 In The Oil & Gas Industry: A Bibliometric Analysis, Francesco Longo, Antonio Padovano, Lucia Gazzaneo, Jessica Frangella, Rafael Diaz

VMASC Publications

Over the last few years, the Human Factors and Ergonomics (HF/E) discipline has significantly benefited from new human-centric engineered digital solutions of the 4.0 industrial age. Technologies are creating new socio-technical interactions between human and machine that minimize the risk of design-induced human errors and have largely contributed to remarkable improvements in terms of process safety, productivity, quality, and workers’ well-being. However, despite the Oil&Gas (O&G) sector is one of the most hazardous environments where human error can have severe consequences, Industry 4.0 aspects are still scarcely integrated with HF/E. This paper calls for a holistic understanding of the changing …

Agent-Based Modelling Of Values: The Case Of Value Sensitive Design For Refugee Logistics, Christine Boshuijzen-Van Burken, Ross J. Gore, Frank Dignum, Lamber Royakkers, Phillip Wozny, F. Leron Shults

VMASC Publications

We have used value sensitive design as a method to develop an agent-based model of values in humanitarian logistics for refugees. Schwartz’s theory of universal values is implemented in the model in such a way that agents can make value trade-offs, which are operationalized into a measure of refugee wellbeing and a measure of public opinion about how the refugee logistics is being handled. By trying out different ‘value scenarios’, stakeholders who are responsible for, or involved in refugee logistics can have insights into the effects of various value choices. The model is visualized and made usable as a platform …

Shipbuilding Supply Chain Framework And Digital Transformation: A Project Portfolios Risk Evaluation, Rafael Diaz, Katherine Smith, Rafael Landaeta, Antonio Padovano

VMASC Publications

Program portfolio managers in digital transformation programs have a need for knowledge that can guide decisions related to the alignment of program investments with the sustainability and strategic objectives of the organization. The purpose of this research is to illustrate the utility of a framework capable of clarifying the cost-benefit tradeoffs stemming from assessing digitalization program investment risks in the military shipbuilding sector. Our approach uses Artificial Neural Network to quantify benefits and risks per project while employing scenario analysis to quantify the effects of operational constraints. A Monte Carlo model is used to generate data samples that support the …

Temporal And Spatiotemporal Investigation Of Tourist Attraction Visit Sentiment On Twitter, Jose J. Padilla, Hamdi Kavak, Christopher J. Lynch, Ross J. Gore, Saikou Y. Diallo

VMASC Publications

In this paper, we propose a sentiment-based approach to investigate the temporal and spatiotemporal effects on tourists' emotions when visiting a city's tourist destinations. Our approach consists of four steps: data collection and preprocessing from social media; visitor origin identification; visit sentiment identification; and temporal and spatiotemporal analysis. The temporal and spatiotemporal dimensions include day of the year, season of the year, day of the week, location sentiment progression, enjoyment measure, and multi-location sentiment progression. We apply this approach to the city of Chicago using over eight million tweets. Results show that seasonal weather, as well as special days and …

Protecting The Most Vulnerable, Joshua G. Behr

VMASC Publications

No abstract provided.

Research, Cooperation, A Vision For Combatting Rising Seas, Joshua Behr

VMASC Publications

No abstract provided.

Building Resiliency In Response To Sea Level Rise And Recurrent Flooding: Comprehensive Planning In Hampton Roads, Joshua G. Behr, Rafael Diaz, Molly Mitchell

VMASC Publications

[Introduction]

Over the past few decades, the Hampton Roads region, with its extensive coastline, has been experiencing more frequent flooding from surges and precipitation caused by tropical storms, nor’easters and heavy thunderstorms (Figure 1). Recurrent flooding is “flooding that occurs repeatedly in the same area over time due to precipitation events, high tides or storm surge.”¹ The recurrence of tidal/surge flooding in Hampton Roads has increased from 1.7 days of “nuisance” flooding per year in 1960 to 7.3 days per year in 2014.² Although there is no definitive region-wide data to document the increases in precipitation-induced flooding, there …

Estimating Cost Adjustments Required To Accomplish Target Savings In Chronic Disease Management Interventions: A Simulation Study, Rafael Diaz, Joshua G. Behr, Bruce S. Britton

VMASC Publications

Chronic diseases are persistent ailments that are not preventable or curable with medication or vaccination. Many of the leading chronic conditions in industrialized societies may be related to lifestyle choices. The prevalence of these chronic conditions significantly affects the health, suffering, and longevity of patients. This paper demonstrates the utility of system dynamics as an approach to model and simulate the behavior of key cost factors in the implementation of population health management interventions. The study uses modeling and simulation as an evaluative method to identify potential savings stemming from an intervention within a well-defined population group. The model is …

Integrating Truck Emissions Cost In Traffic Assignment, Peter Foytik, R. Michael Robinson

VMASC Publications

The adverse impacts of greenhouse gasses (GHG) and the imperative for reducing the existing rate of GHG production are well established. In the United States, the largest source of GHG emissions from human activities is from burning fossil fuels, primarily for the generation of electricity and transportation. The transportation sector accounts for 28% of all U.S. GHG production. Heavy-duty vehicles, such as large freight trucks, account for nearly one-fifth of the U.S. total, and this fraction is expected to grow rapidly. Consequently, many efforts are being used to reduce the total emissions of freight trucks. Most efforts emphasize one of …

Hurricane Preparedness: Community Vulnerability And Medically Fragile Populations, Joshua G. Behr, Rafael Diaz

VMASC Publications

No abstract provided.

Toward A Formalism Of Modeling And Simulation Using Model Theory, Saikou Y. Diallo, Jose Padilla, Ross Gore, Heber Herencia-Zapana, Andreas Tolk

VMASC Publications

This article proposes a Modeling and Simulation (M&S) formalism using Model Theory. The article departs from the premise that M&S is the science that studies the nature of truth using models and simulations. Truth in models and simulations is relative as they seek to answer specific modeling questions. Consequently, truth in M&S is relative because every model is a purposeful abstraction of reality. We use Model Theory to express the proposed formalism because it is built from the premise that truth is relative. The proposed formalism allows us to: (1) deduce formal definitions and explanations of areas of study in …

Do Groups Matter? An Agent-Based Modeling Approach To Pedestrian Egress, Andrew Collins, Terra Elzie, Erika Frydenlund, R. Michael Robinson

VMASC Publications

Festivals in city parks attended by individuals and families are a universal feature of urban life. These venues often have the common attributes of vendors and other obstacles that restrict pedestrian movement through certain areas, as well as fixed number of exits. In this study, the authors build an agent-based model (ABM) that incorporates group cohesion forces into this type of pedestrian egress scenario. The scenario considered was an evacuation of 500 people through a single exit. This allowed an investigation into the use of two different simulated pedestrian's heading updating rules.

Colonel Blotto Games And Lancaster's Equations: A Novel Military Modeling Combination, Andrew Collins, Patrick T. Hester

VMASC Publications

Military strategists face a difficult task when engaged in a battle against an adversarial force. They have to predict both what tactics their opponent will employ and the outcomes of any resultant conflicts in order to make the best decision about their actions. Game theory has been the dominant technique used by analysts to investigate the possible actions that an enemy will employ. Traditional game theory can be augmented by use of Lanchester equations, a set of differential equations used to determine the outcome of a conflict. This paper demonstrates a novel combination of game theory and Lanchester equations using …