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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Improving Country Conflict And Peace Modeling: Datasets, Imputations, And Hierarchical Clustering, Benjamin D. Leiby Sep 2022

Improving Country Conflict And Peace Modeling: Datasets, Imputations, And Hierarchical Clustering, Benjamin D. Leiby

Theses and Dissertations

Many disparate datasets exist that provide country attributes covering political, economic, and social aspects. Unfortunately, this data often does not include all countries nor is the data complete for those countries included, as measured by the dataset’s missingness. This research addresses these dataset shortfalls in predicting country instability by considering country attributes in all aspects as well as in greater thresholds of missingness. First, a structured summary of past research is presented framed by a developed casual taxonomy and functional ontology. Additionally, a novel imputation technique for very large datasets is presented to account for moderate missingness in the expanded …


Forecasting Country Conflict Using Statistical Learning Methods, Sarah Neumann, Darryl K. Ahner, Raymond R. Hill Jun 2022

Forecasting Country Conflict Using Statistical Learning Methods, Sarah Neumann, Darryl K. Ahner, Raymond R. Hill

Faculty Publications

Purpose — This paper aims to examine whether changing the clustering of countries within a United States Combatant Command (COCOM) area of responsibility promotes improved forecasting of conflict. Design/methodology/approach — In this paper statistical learning methods are used to create new country clusters that are then used in a comparative analysis of model-based conflict prediction. Findings — In this study a reorganization of the countries assigned to specific areas of responsibility are shown to provide improvements in the ability of models to predict conflict. Research limitations/implications — The study is based on actual historical data and is purely data driven. …


Global Gnss-Ro Electron Density In The Lower Ionosphere, Dong L. Wu, Daniel J. Emmons Ii, Nimalan Swarnalingam Mar 2022

Global Gnss-Ro Electron Density In The Lower Ionosphere, Dong L. Wu, Daniel J. Emmons Ii, Nimalan Swarnalingam

Faculty Publications

Lack of instrument sensitivity to low electron density (Ne) concentration makes it difficult to measure sharp Ne vertical gradients (four orders of magnitude over 30 km) in the D/E-region. A robust algorithm is developed to retrieve global D/E-region Ne from the high-rate GNSS radio occultation (RO) data, to improve spatiotemporal coverage using recent SmallSat/CubeSat constellations. The new algorithm removes F-region contributions in the RO excess phase profile by fitting a linear function to the data below the D-region. The new GNSS-RO observations reveal many interesting features in the diurnal, seasonal, solar-cycle, and magnetic-field-dependent variations in the …


A Comparison Of Sporadic-E Occurrence Rates Using Gps Radio Occultation And Ionosonde Measurements, Rodney Carmona, Omar A. Nava, Eugene V. Dao, Daniel J. Emmons Jan 2022

A Comparison Of Sporadic-E Occurrence Rates Using Gps Radio Occultation And Ionosonde Measurements, Rodney Carmona, Omar A. Nava, Eugene V. Dao, Daniel J. Emmons

Faculty Publications

Sporadic-E (Es) occurrence rates from Global Position Satellite radio occultation (GPS-RO) measurements have shown to vary by a factor of five between studies, motivating the need for a comparison with ground-based measurements. In an attempt to find accurate GPS-RO techniques for detecting Es formation, occurrence rates derived using five previously developed GPS-RO techniques are compared to ionosonde measurements over an eight-year period from 2010–2017. GPS-RO measurements within 170 km of a ionosonde site are used to calculate Es occurrence rates and compared to the ground-truth ionosonde measurements. The techniques are compared individually for each ionosonde site …


Machine Learning Land Cover And Land Use Classification Of 4-Band Satellite Imagery, Lorelei Turner [*], Torrey J. Wagner, Paul Auclair, Brent T. Langhals Jan 2022

Machine Learning Land Cover And Land Use Classification Of 4-Band Satellite Imagery, Lorelei Turner [*], Torrey J. Wagner, Paul Auclair, Brent T. Langhals

Faculty Publications

Land-cover and land-use classification generates categories of terrestrial features, such as water or trees, which can be used to track how land is used. This work applies classical, ensemble and neural network machine learning algorithms to a multispectral remote sensing dataset containing 405,000 28x28 pixel image patches in 4 electromagnetic frequency bands. For each algorithm, model metrics and prediction execution time were evaluated, resulting in two families of models; fast and precise. The prediction time for an 81,000-patch group of predictions wasmodels, and >5s for the precise models, and there was not a significant change in prediction time when a …