Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Influence Of Pavement Conditions On Commercial Motor Vehicle Crashes, Stephen Arhin, Babin Manandhar, Adam Gatiba

Mineta Transportation Institute

Commercial motor vehicle (CMV) safety is a major concern in the United States, including the District of Columbia (DC), where CMVs make up 15% of traffic. This research uses a comprehensive approach, combining statistical analysis and machine learning techniques, to investigate the impact of road pavement conditions on CMV accidents. The study integrates traffic crash data from the Traffic Accident Reporting and Analysis Systems Version 2.0 (TARAS2) database with pavement condition data provided by the District Department of Transportation (DDOT). Data spanning from 2016 to 2020 was collected and analyzed, focusing on CMV routes in DC. The analysis employs binary …

Examining The Externalities Of Highway Capacity Expansions In California: An Analysis Of Land Use And Land Cover (Lulc) Using Remote Sensing Technology, Serena E. Alexander, Bo Yang, Owen Hussey, Derek Hicks

Mineta Transportation Institute

There are over 590,000 bridges dispersed across the roadway network that stretches across the United States alone. Each bridge with a length of 20 feet or greater must be inspected at least once every 24 months, according to the Federal Highway Act (FHWA) of 1968. This research developed an artificial intelligence (AI)-based framework for bridge and road inspection using drones with multiple sensors collecting capabilities. It is not sufficient to conduct inspections of bridges and roads using cameras alone, so the research team utilized an infrared (IR) camera along with a high-resolution optical camera. In many instances, the IR camera …

A Gravity Model Integrating Land-Use And Transportation Policies For Sustainable Development: Case Study Of Fresno, California, Chih-Hao Wang, Na Chen

Mineta Transportation Institute

The idea of urban compaction has been long proposed and promoted to address the problem of urban sprawl in many American cities. However, there are still rare successful cases of such implementation in the United States. This study uses a classic gravity model, TELEM (Transpiration, Economic, and Land-Use Model) to examine to what extent a land-use or transportation policy must be regulated to make the urban compaction occur in a typical auto-dependent city—Fresno, California. Five scenarios are considered (BL, L1, L2, T1, and T2), in which the baseline (BL) is a natural growth scenario. Without any policy interventions, the city …

Aligning The Transit Industry And Their Vendors In The Face Of Increasing Cyber Risk: Recommendations For Identifying And Addressing Cybersecurity Challenges, Scott Belcher, Terri Belcher, Kathryn Seckman, Brandon Thomas, Homayun Yaqub

Mineta Transportation Institute

Public transit agencies in the United States depend on external vendors to help deliver and maintain many essential services and to provide critical technologies, from ticket purchases to scheduling to email management. While the integration of new, advanced technologies into the public transit industry brings important advancements to U.S. critical transportation infrastructure, the application of digital technologies also brings with it a new assortment of digital risks. Transit agencies of all sizes are finding themselves subject to cyber incidents—most notably ransomware attacks—like those experienced by larger, more prominent companies and critical infrastructure providers. The findings in this report focus on …

Biological Hydrogen Gas Production From Food Waste As A Sustainable Fuel For Future Transportation, Pitiporn Asvapathanagul, Leanne Deocampo, Nicholas Banuelos

Mineta Transportation Institute

In the global search for the right alternative energy sources for a more sustainable future, hydrogen production has stood out as a strong contender. Hydrogen gas (H2) is well-known as one of the cleanest and most sustainable energy sources, one that mainly yields only water vapor as a byproduct. Additionally, H2 generates triple the amount of energy compared to hydrocarbon fuels. H2 can be synthesized from several technologies, but currently only 1% of H2 production is generated from biomass. Biological H2 production generated from anaerobic digestion is a fraction of the 1%. This study aims to enhance biological H2 production …

Evaluation Of Sustainability Determinants To Develop A Sustainability Rating System For California Infrastructure Construction Projects, Joseph Kim, Patricia Mccarthy

Mineta Transportation Institute

This study evaluates the important sustainability determinants that affect factors’ success in meeting their sustainability goals when conducting infrastructure construction projects in California. The study implemented the online survey method to evaluate the sustainability characteristics that infrastructure industry professionals currently are aware of under the current situation in California. A data set of 25 validated survey responses is used for statistical data analysis using analysis of variables, Kruskal-Wallis tests, and two sample t-tests. The analysis results showed that the median response values for the six major sustainability categories do not show any significant difference. The results also showed that no …

Taming The Data In The Internet Of Vehicles, Shahab Tayeb

Mineta Transportation Institute

As an emerging field, the Internet of Vehicles (IoV) has a myriad of security vulnerabilities that must be addressed to protect system integrity. To stay ahead of novel attacks, cybersecurity professionals are developing new software and systems using machine learning techniques. Neural network architectures improve such systems, including Intrusion Detection System (IDSs), by implementing anomaly detection, which differentiates benign data packets from malicious ones. For an IDS to best predict anomalies, the model is trained on data that is typically pre-processed through normalization and feature selection/reduction. These pre-processing techniques play an important role in training a neural network to optimize …

Drivers’ Response To Scenarios When Driving Connected And Automated Vehicles Compared To Vehicles With And Without Driver Assist Technology, Srinivas S. Pulugurtha, Raghuveer Gouribhatla

Mineta Transportation Institute

Traffic related crashes cause more than 38,000 fatalities every year in the United States. They are the leading cause of death among drivers up to 54 years in age and incur $871 million in losses each year. Driver errors contribute to about 94% of these crashes. In response, automotive companies have been developing vehicles with advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) that aid in various driving tasks. These features are aimed at enhancing safety by either warning drivers of a potential hazard or picking up certain driving maneuvers like maintaining the lane. These features are already part of vehicles with Driver …

Analytical Models For Traffic Congestion And Accident Analysis, Hongrui Liu, Rahul Ramachandra Shetty

Mineta Transportation Institute

In the US, over 38,000 people die in road crashes each year, and 2.35 million are injured or disabled, according to the statistics report from the Association for Safe International Road Travel (ASIRT) in 2020. In addition, traffic congestion keeping Americans stuck on the road wastes millions of hours and billions of dollars each year. Using statistical techniques and machine learning algorithms, this research developed accurate predictive models for traffic congestion and road accidents to increase understanding of the complex causes of these challenging issues. The research used US Accidents data consisting of 49 variables describing 4.2 million accident records …

Exploring The Relationship Between Mandatory Helmet Use Regulations And Adult Cyclists’ Behavior In California Using Hybrid Machine Learning Models, Fatemeh Davoudi Kakhki, Maria Chierichetti

Mineta Transportation Institute

In California, bike fatalities increased by 8.1% from 2015 to 2016. Even though the benefits of wearing helmets in protecting cyclists against trauma in cycling crash has been determined, the use of helmets is still limited, and there is opposition against mandatory helmet use, particularly for adults. Therefore, exploring perceptions of adult cyclists regarding mandatory helmet use is a key element in understanding cyclists’ behavior, and determining the impact of mandatory helmet use on their cycling rate. The goal of this research is to identify sociodemographic characteristics and cycling behaviors that are associated with the use and non-use of bicycle …

Developing An Effective Targeted Mobile Application To Enhance Transportation Safety And Use Of Active Transportation Modes In Fresno County: The Role Of Application Design & Content, Samer Sarofim

Mineta Transportation Institute

Do pedestrians and cyclists need their own app? Pedestrians and cyclists in Fresno county think so, and this research examined this need and how it relates to the importance of app design. Survey participants (all who regularly use active transportation modes) along with a variety of transportation stakeholders, including the Fresno Council of Government, the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) District 6, and the City of Fresno — Public Works Department, indicated the importance of designing effective communication tools to enhance the utilization of active transportation modes and to ensure the safety of vulnerable road users. In this study, over …

Multifidelity Prediction In Wildfire Spread Simulation: Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification And Sensitivity Analysis, Mario Miguel Valero, Lluís Jofre, Ricardo Torres

Faculty Research, Scholarly, and Creative Activity

Wildfire behavior predictions typically suffer from significant uncertainty. However, wildfire modeling uncertainties remain largely unquantified in the literature, mainly due to computing constraints. New multifidelity techniques provide a promising opportunity to overcome these limitations. Therefore, this paper explores the applicability of multifidelity approaches to wildland fire spread prediction problems. Using a canonical simulation scenario, we assessed the performance of control variates Monte-Carlo (MC) and multilevel MC strategies, achieving speedups of up to 100x in comparison to a standard MC method. This improvement was leveraged to quantify aleatoric uncertainties and analyze the sensitivity of the fire rate of spread (RoS) to …

Predicting Bus Travel Times In Washington, Dc Using Artificial Neural Networks (Anns), Stephen Arhin, Babin Manandhar, Hamdiat Baba Adam, Adam Gatiba

Mineta Transportation Institute

Washington, DC is ranked second among cities in terms of highest public transit commuters in the United States, with approximately 9% of the working population using the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) Metrobuses to commute. Deducing accurate travel times of these metrobuses is an important task for transit authorities to provide reliable service to its patrons. This study, using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), developed prediction models for transit buses to assist decision-makers to improve service quality and patronage. For this study, we used six months of Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) and Automatic Passenger Counting (APC) data for six Washington …

Using Beam Software To Simulate The Introduction Of On-Demand, Automated, And Electric Shuttles For Last Mile Connectivity In Santa Clara County, Gary Hsueh, David Czerwinski, Cristian Poliziani, Terris Becker, Alexandre Hughes, Peter Chen, Melissa Benn

Mineta Transportation Institute

Despite growing interest in low-speed automated shuttles, pilot deployments have only just begun in a few places in the U.S., and there is a lack of studies that estimate the impacts of a widespread deployment of automated shuttles designed to supplement existing transit networks. This project estimated the potential impacts of automated shuttles based on a deployment scenario generated for a sample geographic area: Santa Clara County, California. The project identified sample deployment markets within Santa Clara County using a GIS screening exercise; tested the mode share changes of an automated shuttle deployment scenario using BEAM, an open-source beta software …

Local Climate Action Planning As A Tool To Harness The Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation And Equity Potential Of Autonomous Vehicles And On-Demand Mobility, Serena Alexander, Asha Weinstein Agrawal, Benjamin Y. Clark

Mineta Transportation Institute

This report focuses on how cities can use climate action plans (CAPs) to ensure that on-demand mobility and autonomous vehicles (AVs) help reduce, rather than increase, green-house gas (GHG) emissions and inequitable impacts from the transportation system. We employed a three-pronged research strategy involving: (1) an analysis of the current literature on on-demand mobility and AVs; (2) a systematic content analysis of 23 CAPs and general plans developed by municipalities in California; and (3) a comparison of findings from the literature and content analysis of plans to identify opportunities for GHG emissions reduction and mobility equity.

Findings indicate that maximizing …

Development Of A Statistical Model To Predict Materials’ Unit Prices For Future Maintenance And Rehabilitation In Highway Life Cycle Cost Analysis, Changmo Kim, Ghazan Khan, Brent Nguyen, Emily L. Hoang

Mineta Transportation Institute

The main objectives of this study are to investigate the trends in primary pavement materials’ unit price over time and to develop statistical models and guidelines for using predictive unit prices of pavement materials instead of uniform unit prices in life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) for future maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) projects. Various socio-economic data were collected for the past 20 years (1997–2018) in California, including oil price, population, government expenditure in transportation, vehicle registration, and other key variables, in order to identify factors affecting pavement materials’ unit price. Additionally, the unit price records of the popular pavement materials were …

Is The Transit Industry Prepared For The Cyber Revolution? Policy Recommendations To Enhance Surface Transit Cyber Preparedness, Scott Belcher, Terri Belcher, Eric Greenwald, Brandon Thomas

Mineta Transportation Institute

The intent of this study is to assess the readiness, resourcing, and structure of public transit agencies to identify, protect from, detect, respond to, and recover from cybersecurity vulnerabilities and threats. Given the multitude of connected devices already in use by the transit industry and the vast amount of data generated (with more coming online soon), the transit industry is vulnerable to malicious cyber-attack and other cybersecurity-related threats. This study reviews the state of best cybersecurity practices in public surface transit; outlines U.S. public surface transit operators’ cybersecurity operations; assesses U.S. policy on cybersecurity in public surface transportation; and provides …

Analysis Of The Benefits Of Green Streets, Christopher E. Ferrell, John M. Eells, Richard W. Lee, Reyhane Hosseinzade

Mineta Transportation Institute

Green streets offer many potential benefits that include improving water quality, absorbing carbon (sequestration), and reducing urban heat island effects. This report summarizes: (1) the research team’s analysis of 14 tools calculating green streets benefits; and (2) the results of applying the most promising calculators to a select group of green streets case studies. The researchers are affiliated with the Mineta Transportation Institute, which serves the California Department of Transportation (“Caltrans”). The report presents the results of the case study analyses, with an emphasis on carbon sequestration benefits and improvements to pedestrian levels of service (PLOS).

Trees absorb carbon dioxide …

Managing Cyber Risks & Business Exposure In The Surface Transportation Ecosystem, Jacques R. Francoeur

Mineta Transportation Institute

This report focuses on Surface Transportation (ST), both fixed and route-based, and the growing threats to their information technology (IT) infrastructures. As an industry, ST seeks to optimize the movement of people and goods, while ensuring safety and resiliency and minimizing environmental impact. Cyber threats are a powerful medium for those with the political, social, and economic motivations and wherewithal to disrupt and destroy existing ST systems. The ultimate objective is to develop a new paradigm to define, describe, design, and deploy the most effective protection, at the lowest cost, in the shortest time within the limits of available resources. …

Environmental Studies 129: Water Policy In The Western U.S., Costanza Rampini

Faculty Publications, Environmental Studies

Water, or lack of it, is the defining characteristic of development in the Western United States. Using multiple analytical frameworks, including history, law, economics, environmental science, and sociology, we will investigate the interrelationships of key policies, players, and projects involved in Western water. More specifically, we will critically examine how important federal, state, and local water policies arose and how they affect different stakeholder groups (e.g., irrigators, environmentalists, indigenous peoples, the local citizenry, government entities, public water resource agencies). We will also learn about how stakeholder values and corresponding water policies have changed, or failed to change, over time. Case …

Global Climate Change I-Ii, Kendall Barrett Sooter, Dione Rossiter, Costanza Rampini

Faculty Publications, Environmental Studies

Many different scientific observations and measurements indicate that Earth is experiencing global-scale changes in climate, i.e., in the long-term distributions of temperature, cloud cover, precipitation, and extreme weather events. Scientific consensus considers most these changes to be caused or accelerated by human activities. The economic, ecological, social, and cultural challenges caused by global climate change will affect everyone on the planet, and are very likely to have disproportionate impacts on developing nations. In this course, we will study global climate change from an interdisciplinary perspective, incorporating natural and social science approaches to understanding processes and effects. We will study the …

Changes In Service And Associated Ridership Impacts Near A New Light Rail Transit Line, Jeongwoo Lee, Marlon Boarnet, Douglas Houston, Hilary Nixon, Steven Spears

Faculty Publications, Urban and Regional Planning

Los Angeles (LA), for many years a city with limited rail transit, is substantially expanding its public transit system. This paradigm change in transportation policy and investment creates new requirements for monitoring. One area needing evaluation is whether new, high quality transit options, such as light rail, near existing transit services increase sustainable transportation mode shares and reduce car travel. Few studies have explored light rail’s role as a catalyst to increase overall transit use and achieve sustainability goals within an auto-oriented city like LA. Metro’s data show that trips taken on its bus and rail system dropped overall by …