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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
What Is Y2k And How Did The University Of Nevada System Solve It?, Diane R. Dietrich
What Is Y2k And How Did The University Of Nevada System Solve It?, Diane R. Dietrich
UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones
The turn of the century change from 1999 to 2000 will create chaos for the world's computer systems. This paper will discuss the causes of the Y2K problem, the reaction to this problem by the University of Nevada System Computer Services and possible repercussions of this problem for Nevada, the United States and the world.
Level Adjusted Exponential Smoothing: A Method For Judgmentally Adjusting Exponential Smoothing Models For Planned Discontinuities, Dan Williams, Don Miller
Level Adjusted Exponential Smoothing: A Method For Judgmentally Adjusting Exponential Smoothing Models For Planned Discontinuities, Dan Williams, Don Miller
Publications and Research
Forecasters often make judgmental adjustments to exponential smoothing forecasts to account for the effects of a future planned change. While this approach may produce sound initial forecasts, it can result in diminished accuracy for forecast updates. A proposed technique lets the forecaster include policy change adjustments within an exponential smoothing model. For 20 real data series representing Virginia Medicaid expenses, initial forecasts and forecast updates are developed using the proposed technique and several alternatives, and they are updated through various simulated level shifts. The proposed technique was more accurate than the alternatives in updating forecasts when a shift in level …