Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Vulnerability Of Shallow Tidal Water Habitats In Virginia To Climate Change, Donna Marie Bilkovic, Carl H. Herschner, Tamia Rudnicky, Karinna Nunez, Daniel E. Schatt, Sharon Kileen, Marcia Berman, Center For Coastal Resources Management, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science

Reports

The principal objective of this study was to develop a characterization of current shallow-water habitat components in Virginia tidal waters and predict climate driven changes to these habitats. To project broad-scale climate change effects on the abundance and distribution of coastal habitats, an inundation model based on anticipated relative sea-level rise, temperature and salinity projections, and coastal development were integrated into a GIS modeling framework. Using this framework, simple models were constructed that forecast the distribution of key coastal habitat parameters within the next 50 to 100 years including: shallow-water areas, tidal wetlands, submerged aquatic vegetation and estuarine beaches. The …