Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Risk Assessment And Mapping Of Hand, Foot, And Mouth Disease At The County Level In Mainland China Using Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Bayesian Hierarchical Models, Chao Song, Yaqian He, Yanchen Bo, Jinfeng Wang, Zhoupeng Ren, Huibin Yang

Faculty & Staff Scholarship

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease, prominent in China. China’s HFMD data are sparse with a large number of observed zeros across locations and over time. However, no previous studies have considered such a zero-inflated problem on HFMD’s spatiotemporal risk analysis and mapping, not to mention for the entire Mainland China at county level. Monthly county-level HFMD cases data combined with related climate and socioeconomic variables were collected. We developed four models, including spatiotemporal Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models under the Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework to explore disease …