Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Verifying Empirical Predictive Modeling Of Societal Vulnerability To Hazardous Events: A Monte Carlo Experimental Approach, Yi Victor Wang, Seung Hee Kim, Menas C. Kafatos

Institute for ECHO Articles and Research

With the emergence of large amounts of historical records on adverse impacts of hazardous events, empirical predictive modeling has been revived as a foundational paradigm for quantifying disaster vulnerability of societal systems. This paradigm models societal vulnerability to hazardous events as a vulnerability curve indicating an expected loss rate of a societal system with respect to a possible spectrum of intensity measure (IM) of an event. Although the empirical predictive models (EPMs) of societal vulnerability are calibrated on historical data, they should not be experimentally tested with data derived from field experiments on any societal system. Alternatively, in this paper, …

Using A Hybrid Agent-Based And Equation Based Model To Test School Closure Policies During A Measles Outbreak, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Articles

Background

In order to be prepared for an infectious disease outbreak it is important to know what interventions will or will not have an impact on reducing the outbreak. While some interventions might have a greater effect in mitigating an outbreak, others might only have a minor effect but all interventions will have a cost in implementation. Estimating the effectiveness of an intervention can be done using computational modelling. In particular, comparing the results of model runs with an intervention in place to control runs where no interventions were used can help to determine what interventions will have the greatest …

A Model For The Spread Of Infectious Diseases In A Region, Elizabeth Hunter, Brian Mac Namee, John D. Kelleher

Articles

In understanding the dynamics of the spread of an infectious disease, it is important to understand how a town’s place in a network of towns within a region will impact how the disease spreads to that town and from that town. In this article, we take a model for the spread of an infectious disease in a single town and scale it up to simulate a region containing multiple towns. The model is validated by looking at how adding additional towns and commuters influences the outbreak in a single town. We then look at how the centrality of a town …

The Trolley Problem In Virtual Reality, Jungsu Pak, Ariane Guirguis, Nicholas Mirchandani, Scott Cummings, Uri Maoz

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

Would people react to the Trolley problem differently based on the medium? Immersive Virtual Reality Driving Simulator was used to examine participants respond to the trolley problem in a realistic and controlled simulated environment.

Design And Implementation Of A Stand-Alone Tool For Metabolic Simulations, Milad Ghiasi Rad

Department of Computer Science and Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

In this thesis, we present the design and implementation of a stand-alone tool for metabolic simulations. This system is able to integrate custom-built SBML models along with external user’s input information and produces the estimation of any reactants participating in the chain of the reactions in the provided model, e.g., ATP, Glucose, Insulin, for the given duration using numerical analysis and simulations. This tool offers the food intake arguments in the calculations to consider the personalized metabolic characteristics in the simulations. The tool has also been generalized to take into consideration of temporal genomic information and be flexible for simulation …

Parsing The Relationship Between Baserunning And Batting Abilities Within Lineups, Ben S. Baumer, James Piette, Brad Null

Statistical and Data Sciences: Faculty Publications

A baseball team's offensive prowess is a function of two types of abilities: batting and baserunning. While each has been studied extensively in isolation, the effects of their interaction is not well understood. We model offensive output as a scalar function f of an individual player's batting and baserunning profile z. Each of these profiles is in turn estimated from Retrosheet data using heirarchical Bayesian models. We then use the SimulOutCome simulation engine as a method to generate values of f(z) over a fine grid of points. Finally, for each of several methods of taking the extra base, we graphically …

Visualizing The Simulation Of 3-D Underwater Sensor Networks, Matthew T. Tran

Honors Scholar Theses

The majority of sensor network research deals with land-based networks, which are essentially two-dimensional, and thus the majority of simulation and animation tools also only handle such networks. Underwater sensor networks on the other hand, are essentially 3D networks because the depth at which a sensor node is located needs to be considered as well. Due to that additional dimension, specialized tools need to be used when conducting simulations for experimentation.

The School of Engineering’s Underwater Sensor Network (UWSN) lab is conducting research on underwater sensor networks and requires simulation tools for 3D networks. The lab has extended NS-2, a …

Simulations In 3d Tactics, Interdiction And Multi-Agent Modelling, A. R. Green, I. C. Piper, Daniel Keep, C. J. Flaherty

Faculty of Informatics - Papers (Archive)

The analysis of vulnerabilities in large complex spaces is fundamentally problematic. The lack of capacity to generate a threat assessment merely exacerbates this problem. Lacking as well, in current literature is a developed methodology. To overcome this problem, we propose an approach using multi-agent modelling, which is also melded with three dimensional (3D) tactical understandings. Our approach builds on a microsimulation decision support tool, which was developed for a behavioural simulation of CBRN events. Microsimulation is based on the individual; who as an individual has a number of attributes, and which are stochastic (when repeated within an attribute). This approach …

Rule-Based Run Control And Evaluation For Simulation, Robert F. Gordon Ph.D., Kow C. Chang, Edward A. Macnair

Faculty Works: MCS (1984-2023)

RC 19494 (84719)

Modeling projects are often faced with a large parameter space that has to be explored in order to produce a set of performance measures representing the behavior of the systems under study. In this paper, we describe a software component that provides the analyst with the functionality to specify a design of experiments and execute a search algorithm over the resulting parameter space. The component invokes the associated simulation runs and compares the results to a goal to determine the solution. This component has been implemented as the run control mechanism in the RESearch Queueing Modeling Environment …

An Introduction To The Research Queueing Package For Modeling Computer Systems And Communication Networks, Robert F. Gordon Ph.D., Edward A. Macnair

Faculty Works: MCS (1984-2023)

A queueing network is an important tool for modeling systems where performance is principally affected by contention for resources. Such systems include computer systems, communication networks and manufacturing lines. In order to effectively use queuing networks as performance models, appropriate software is necessary for definition ofthe networks to be solved, for solution ofthe networks and for examination of the performance measures obtained. The RESearch Queueing Package (RESQ) and the RESearch Queueing Package Modeling Environment (RESQME) form a system for constructing, solving and analyzing extended queueing network models. We refer to the class of RESQ networks as "extended" because of characteristics …