Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Essays On Oil Price Volatility And Irreversible Investment, Daniel Joseph Pastor

Wayne State University Dissertations

In chapter 1, we provide an extensive and systematic evaluation of the relative

forecasting performance of several models for the volatility of daily spot

crude oil prices. Empirical research over the past decades has uncovered

significant gains in forecasting performance of Markov Switching GARCH

models over GARCH models for the volatility of financial assets and crude

oil futures. We find that, for spot oil price returns, non-switching models

perform better in the short run, whereas switching models tend to do better

at longer horizons.

In chapter 2, I investigate the impact of volatility on firms' irreversible investment decisions using real …