Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Coastal Lagoons And Climate Change: Ecological And Social Ramifications In The U.S. Atlantic And Gulf Coast Ecosystems, Abigail Anthony, Joshua Atwood, Peter V. August, Carrie Byron, Stanley Cobb, Cheryl Foster, Crystal Fry, Arthur Gold, Kifle Hagos, Leanna Heffner, D. Q. Kellogg, Kimberly Lellis-Dibble, James J. Opaluch, Candace A. Oviatt, Anna Pfeiffer-Herbert, Nicole Rohr, Leslie Smith, Tiffany Smythe, Judith Swift, Nathan Vinhateiro

Arthur Gold

Lagoons are highly productive coastal features that provide a range of natural services that society values. Their setting within the coastal landscape leaves them especially vulnerable to profound physical, ecological, and associated societal disturbance from global climate change. Expected shifts in physical and ecological characteristics range from changes in flushing regime, freshwater inputs, and water chemistry to complete inundation and loss and the concomitant loss of natural and human communities. Therefore, managing coastal lagoons in the context of global climate change is critical. Although management approaches will vary depending on local conditions and cultural norms, all management scenarios will need …

Nursing Females Are More Prone To Heat Stress: Demography Matters When Managing Flying-Foxes For Climate Change, Stephanie T. Snoyman, Jasmina Munich, Culum Brown

Ecological Impacts of Climate Change Collection

Determining the underlying mechanisms responsible for species-specific responses to climate change is important from a species management perspective. The grey-headed flying-fox, Pteropus poliocephalus, is listed as vulnerable but it also a significant pest species for orchardists and thereby presents an interesting management conundrum. Over the last century, the abundance of the grey-headed flying-fox, P. poliocephalus, in Australia has decreased due to a variety of threatening processes but has increased in abundance in urban areas. These flying-foxes are highly susceptible to extreme heat events which are predicted to increase in the future under climate change scenarios. Exceptionally hot days result in …

Common Garden Experiments Reveal Uncommon Responses Across Temperatures, Locations, And Species Of Ants, Shannon L. Pelini, Sarah E. Diamond, Heidi Maclean, Aaron M. Ellison, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Nathan J. Sanders, Robert R. Dunn

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

Population changes and shifts in geographic range boundaries induced by climate change have been documented for many insect species. On the basis of such studies, ecological forecasting models predict that, in the absence of dispersal and resource barriers, many species will exhibit large shifts in abundance and geographic range in response to warming. However, species are composed of individual populations, which may be subject to different selection pressures and therefore may be differentially responsive to environmental change. Asystematic responses across populations and species to warming will alter ecological communities differently across space. Common garden experiments can provide a more mechanistic …

Sea Level Rise (Slr) Acceleration In The Hampton Roads: A Scientific Perspective, Tal Ezer, Larry Atkinson

November 16, 2012: Best Practices for Adapting to Sea Level Rise and Flooding

No abstract provided.

Predictability Of Biomass Burning In Response To Climate Changes, A.-L. Daniau, Megan Walsh

All Faculty Scholarship for the College of the Sciences

Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from …

Impacts Of Climate Change On The Surface Water Balance Of The Central United States, 1984-2007, Bo Dong

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The climate system and the hydrologic cycle are strongly connected with each other. Understanding the interactions between these two systems is important, since variations in climate can trigger extensive changes in the hydrologic cycle, with significant impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, and society. Observations over the central U.S. in recent decades show numerous changes in climatic variables. This includes decreases in cloud cover and wind speed, increases in air temperature, and seasonal shifts in precipitation rate and rain/snow fraction. To assess the impacts of these variations in climate on the regional water cycle, a terrestrial ecosystem/land surface hydrologic model (Agro-IBIS) is …

Is Sea Level Rise Accelerating In The Chesapeake Bay? A Demonstation Of A Novel New Approach For Analyzing Sea Level Data, Tal Ezer, William Bryce Corlett

CCPO Publications

Sea level data from the Chesapeake Bay are used to test a novel new analysis method for studies of sea level rise (SLR). The method, based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Hilbert-Huang Transformation, separates the sea level trend from other oscillating modes and reveals how the mean sea level changes over time. Bootstrap calculations test the robustness of the method and provide confidence levels. The analysis shows that rates of SLR have increased from similar to 1-3 mm y(-1) in the 1930s to similar to 4-10 mm y(-1) in 2011, an acceleration of similar to 0.05-0.10 mm y(-2) that is …

The Ross Sea: In A Sea Of Change, Walker O. Smith, Peter N. Sedwick, Kevin R. Arrigo, David G. Ainley, Alejandro H. Orsi

OES Faculty Publications

The Ross Sea, the most productive region in the Antarctic, reaches farther south than any body of water in the world. While its food web is relatively intact, its oceanography, biogeochemistry, and sea ice coverage have been changing dramatically, and likely will continue to do so in the future. Sea ice cover and persistence have been increasing, in contrast to the Amundsen-Bellingshausen sector, which has resulted in reduced open water duration for its biota. Models predict that as the ozone hole recovers, ice cover will begin to diminish. Currents on the continental shelf will likely change in the coming century, …

Land Use Adaptation To Climate Change: Economic Damages From Land-Falling Hurricanes In The Atlantic And Gulf States Of The Usa, 1900-2005, Asim Zia

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Global climate change, especially the phenomena of global warming, is expected to increase the intensity of land-falling hurricanes. Societal adaptation is needed to reduce vulnerability from increasingly intense hurricanes. This study quantifies the adaptation effects of potentially policy driven caps on housing densities and agricultural cover in coastal (and adjacent inland) areas vulnerable to hurricane damages in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal regions of the U.S. Time series regressions, especially Prais-Winston and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, are estimated to forecast the economic impacts of hurricanes of varying intensity, given that various patterns of land use emerge in the Atlantic …

Development And Dissemination Of Clean Cookstoves: A Model Law For Developed Countries, Scott Miller

Drafting Model Laws on Indoor Pollution for Developing and Developed Nations (July 12-13)

21 pages.

"This model law was developed at a legislative drafting workshop on July 12-13, 2012, entitled Drafting Model Laws on Indoor Pollution for Developing and Developed Nations, which was sponsored by the Center for Energy & Environmental Security and the Colorado Natural Resources, Energy & Environmental Law Review at the University of Colorado Law School in Boulder, Colorado."-- Excerpted from 24 Colo. Nat. Resources, Energy & Envtl. L. Rev. 355 (2013).

"Scott Miller ed."

Development And Dissemination Of Clean Cookstoves: A Model Law For Developing Countries, Lakshman Guruswamy Ed.

Drafting Model Laws on Indoor Pollution for Developing and Developed Nations (July 12-13)

24 pages.

"This model law was developed at a legislative drafting workshop on July 12-13, 2012, entitled Drafting Model Laws on Indoor Pollution for Developing and Developed Nations, which was sponsored by the Center for Energy & Environmental Security and the Colorado Natural Resources, Energy & Environmental Law Review at the University of Colorado Law School in Boulder, Colorado." Excerpted from 24 Colo. Nat. Resources, Energy & Envtl. L. Rev. 331 (2013).

Sensitivity Of Circumpolar Deep Water Transport And Ice Shelf Basal Melt Along The West Antarctic Peninsula To Changes In The Winds, Michael S. Dinniman, John M. Klinck, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) can be found near the continental shelf break around most of Antarctica. Advection of this relatively warm water (up to 2 degrees C) across the continental shelf to the base of floating ice shelves is thought to be a critical source of heat for basal melting in some locations. A high-resolution (4 km) regional ocean-sea ice-ice shelf model of the west Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) coastal ocean was used to examine the effects of changes in the winds on across-shelf CDW transport and ice shelf basal melt. Increases and decreases in the strength of the wind fields …

Old Dominion University Climate Change And Sea Level Rise Initiative, Summer 2012, Larry P. Atkinson (Editor)

CCSLRI Newsletters

Summer 2012 Newsletter of the Old Dominion University Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Intiative

Collaborative Research: Norwegian-United States Ipy Scientific Traverse: Climate Variability And Glaciology In East Antarctica, Gordon S. Hamilton

University of Maine Office of Research Administration: Grant Reports

This award supports a project of scientific investigations along two overland traverses in East Antarctica: one going from the Norwegian Troll Station (72deg. S, 2deg. E) to the United States South Pole Station (90deg. S, 0deg. E) in 2007-2008; and a return traverse starting at South Pole Station and ending at Troll Station by a different route in 2008-2009. The project will investigate climate change in East Antarctica, with the goals of understanding climate variability in Dronning Maud Land of East Antarctica on time scales of years to centuries and determining the surface and net mass balance of the ice …

Carbon Sequestration And Sediment Accretion In San Francisco Bay Tidal Wetlands, John C. Callaway, Evyan L. Borgnis, R. Eugene Turner, Charles S. Milan

Faculty Publications

Tidal wetlands play an important role with respect to climate change because of both their sensitivity to sea-level rise and their ability to sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Policy-based interest in carbon sequestration has increased recently, and wetland restoration projects have potential for carbon credits through soil carbon sequestration. We measured sediment accretion, mineral and organic matter accumulation, and carbon sequestration rates using 137Cs and 210Pb downcore distributions at six natural tidal wetlands in the San Francisco Bay Estuary. The accretion rates were, in general, 0.2–0.5 cm year−1, indicating that local wetlands are keeping pace with recent rates of …

Century-Scale Responses Of Ecosystem Carbon Storage And Flux To Multiple Environmental Changes In The Southern United States, Hanqin Tian, Guangsheng Chen, Chi Zang, Mingliang Liu, Ge Sun, Arthur Chappelka, Wei Ren, Xiaofeng Xu, Chaoqun Lu, Shufen Pan, Hua Chen, Dafeng Hui, Steven Mcnulty, Graeme Lockaby, Eric Vance

Chaoqun (Crystal) Lu

Terrestrial ecosystems in the southern United States (SUS) have experienced a complex set of changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, tropospheric ozone (O3), nitrogen (N) deposition, and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) during the past century. Although each of these factors has received attention for its alterations on ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics, their combined effects and relative contributions are still not well understood. By using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) in combination with spatially explicit, long-term historical data series on multiple environmental factors, we examined the century-scale responses of ecosystem C storage and flux to multiple environmental changes in …

Long-Term Changes To The Frost-Free Season As A Function Of Climatic Continentality, Ian Blaylock

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

The beginning, end, and length of the annual frost-free season vary considerably both spatially and temporally. The continentality of the climate of a given area has a close connection with the magnitude and nature of these variations. Long term changes in the frost-free season can be divided into three distinct phases: a lengthening of the frost-free season in the early 20^th century, a shortening in the mid-20^th century, and a renewed, intensified lengthening from 1970 to today. While oceanic and ultraoceanic climates experience decreased incidence of frosts relative to their continental counterparts, analysis has shown that overall 20 …

Nantucket Shellfish Management Plan, Kristin Uiterwyk, Steve Bliven, Dan Leavitt, Jack Wiggin, Urban Harbors Institute, University Of Massachusetts Boston

Office of Community Partnerships Posters

Nantucket’s shellfish resources are an important part of the Island’s history, culture, and economy. Nantucket waters support one of the country’s last wild-caught bay scallop fisheries. Elsewhere along the Atlantic coast, fishing pressure, habitat loss, and disease have severely depleted bay scallop populations. Although Nantucketers continue to make a living harvesting shellfish from the Island’s waters, many do so with concern for the future of the resources and the habitats that support them. Urban Harbors Institute (UHI) provided technical assistance to the community to develop a Shellfish Management Plan (SMP) that addresses issues of water quality, habitat loss, climate change, …

Old Dominion University Climate Change And Sea Level Rise Initiative, Spring 2012, Larry P. Atkinson (Editor)

CCSLRI Newsletters

Summer 2012 Newsletter of the Old Dominion University Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative

Anthropogenic Climate Change And Allergic Diseases, James Blando, Leonard Bielory, Viann Nguyen, Rafael Diaz, Hueiwang Anna Jeng

Community & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Climate change is expected to have an impact on various aspects of health, including mucosal areas involved in allergic inflammatory disorders that include asthma, allergic rhinitis, allergic conjunctivitis and anaphylaxis. The evidence that links climate change to the exacerbation and the development of allergic disease is increasing and appears to be linked to changes in pollen seasons (duration, onset and intensity) and changes in allergen content of plants and their pollen as it relates to increased sensitization, allergenicity and exacerbations of allergic airway disease. This has significant implications for air quality and for the global food supply.

Oceanic Controls On The Mass Balance Of Wilkins Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Laurie Padman, Daniel P. Costs, M. S. Dinniman, Helen A. Fricker, Michael E. Goebel, Luis A. Huckstadt, Angelika Humbert, Ian Joughin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Ted Scambos, Michiel R. Van Den Broeke

CCPO Publications

Several Antarctic Peninsula (AP) ice shelves have lost significant fractions of their volume over the past decades, coincident with rapid regional climate change. Wilkins Ice Shelf (WIS), on the western side of the AP, is the most recent, experiencing a sequence of large calving events in 2008 and 2009. We analyze the mass balance for WIS for the period 1992-2008 and find that the averaged rate of ice-shelf thinning was similar to 0.8 m a(-1), driven by a mean basal melt rate of < w(b)> = 1.3 +/- 0.4 m a(-1). Interannual variability was large, associated with changes in both surface mass …

Can Oysters Crassostrea Virginica Develop Resistance To Dermo Disease In The Field: The Impediment Posed By Climate Cycles, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Ximing Guo, Eileen E. Hofmann, Susan E. Ford, David Bushek

CCPO Publications

Populations of eastern oysters, Crassostrea virginica, are commonly limited by mortality from dermo disease. Little development of resistance to Perkinsus marinus, the dermo pathogen, has occurred, despite the high mortality rates and frequency of epizootics. Can the tendency of the parasite to exhibit cyclic epizootics limit the oyster's response to the disease despite the presence of alleles apparently conferring disease resistance? We utilize a gene-based population dynamics model to simulate the development of disease resistance in Crassostrea virginica populations exposed to cyclic mortality encompassing periodicities expected of dermo disease over the geographic range at which epizootics have been …

Interannual And Spatial Impacts Of Phenological Transitions, Growing Season Length, And Spring And Autumn Temperatures On Carbon Sequestration: A North America Flux Data Synthesis, Chaoyang Wu, Alemu Gonsamo, Jing Ming Chen, Werner A. Kurz, David T. Price, Peter M. Lafleur, Rachhpal S. Jassal, Danilo Dragoni, Gil Bohrer, Christopher M. Gough, Shashi B. Verma, Andrew E. Suyker, J. William Munger

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Understanding feedbacks of ecosystem carbon sequestration to climate change is an urgent step in developing future ecosystem models. Using 187 site-years of flux data observed at 24 sites covering three plant functional types (i.e. evergreen forests (EF), deciduous forests (DF) and non-forest ecosystems (NF) (e.g., crop, grassland, wetland)) in North America, we present an analysis of both interannual and spatial relationships between annual net ecosystem production (NEP) and phenological indicators, including the flux-based carbon uptake period (CUP) and its transitions, degree-day-derived growing season length (GSL), and spring and autumn temperatures. Diverse responses were acquired between annul NEP and these indicators …

A Diatom Record Of Late Pliocene Cooling From The Ross Sea Continental Shelf, And-1b, Antarctica, Charlotte Sjunneskog, Diane Winter

ANDRILL Research and Publications

A late Pliocene – early Pleistocene, 2.9–2.0Ma, diatom record from the Antarctic Geological Drilling Program (ANDRILL) MIS drillcore AND-1B is presented. This core, recovered from beneath the Ross Ice Shelf south of Ross Island, comprises multiple diatomaceous-sediment units deposited during interglacial periods with open water over the core site. These represent interglacial phases of orbitally paced climate cycles and are punctuated by glacial advances. Extant diatom assemblages have limited presence in the late Pliocene record, which makes environmental interpretation less straight forward. We employ modern ecological data in combination with late Pliocene to present variation in diatom assemblages across the …

The Arctic Game, Sarah E. Nuernberger

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Since outsiders first visited the Arctic, they have believed in man's ability to conquer the region. Today's Arctic conquest is not one of heroic exploration, but rather one of ownership and exploitation. This paper illustrates contestation in the Arctic through the metaphor of a game, with attendant prizes, players, and rules. It focuses on how to prevent the future destruction of the Arctic given the interactions of the Arctic's landscape, prizes, players, and current management frameworks. In the wake of renewed resource exploitation and escalating climate change impacts, the current frameworks and mindsets are inadequate to support the precarious balance …

Global Air Temperature Variability Independent Of Sea-Surface Temperature Influences, Andrew C. Comrie, Gregory J. Mccabe

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Mean global surface air temperature (SAT) and sea surface temperature (SST) display substantial variability on timescales ranging from annual to multi-decadal. We review the key recent literature on connections between global SAT and SST variability. Although individual ocean influences on SAT have been recognized, the combined contributions of worldwide SST variability on the global SAT signal have not been clearly identified in observed data.Weanalyze these relations using principal components of detrended SST, and find that removing the underlying combined annual, decadal, and multi-decadal SST variability from the SAT time series reveals a nearly monotonic global warming trend in SAT since …

Hurricane Disturbance And Recovery Of Energy Balance, Co2 Fluxes And Canopy Structure In A Mangrove Forest Of The Florida Everglades, Jordan G. Barr, Vic Engel, Thomas J. Smith, José D. Fuentes

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Eddy covariance (EC) estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes and energy balance are examined to investigate the functional responses of a mature mangrove forest to a disturbance generated by Hurricane Wilma on October 24, 2005 in the Florida Everglades. At the EC site, high winds from the hurricane caused nearly 100% defoliation in the upper canopy and widespread tree mortality. Soil temperatures down to −50 cm increased, and air temperature lapse rates within the forest canopy switched from statically stable to statically unstable conditions following the disturbance. Unstable conditions allowed more efficient transport of water vapor and CO₂ from …

Recent Changes In The Growth And Nutrient Limitation Of Benthic And Pelagic Algae In Arctic Tundra Ponds, Christina Hernandez

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Arctic ponds are a dominant feature in Barrow, Alaska. Ponds may function as carbon sinks during the growing season from production of photosynthetic organisms like algae; however, little work has been done on this topic. Environmental changes have been occurring in the Arctic stemming from climate change and human perturbations. The focus of this study was to assess a historically studied region for changes in algal primary production that may have been produced due to increases in temperature over the past 40 years and increased human development. Additionally, this study aimed to determine nutrient limitation of algal production in the …

Process-Evaluation Of Tropospheric Humidity Simulated By General Circulation Models Using Water Vapor Isotopic Observations: 2. Using Isotopic Diagnostics To Understand The Mid And Upper Tropospheric Moist Bias In The Tropics And Subtropics, Camille Risi, David Noone, John Worden, Christian Frankenberg, Gabriele Stiller, Michael Kiefer, Bernd Funke, Kaley Walker, Peter Bernath, Matthias Schneider, Sandrine Bony, Jeonghoon Lee, Derek Brown, Christophe Sturm

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

Evaluating the representation of processes controlling tropical and subtropical tropospheric relative humidity (RH) in atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) is crucial to assess the credibility of predicted climate changes. GCMs have long exhibited a moist bias in the tropical and subtropical mid and upper troposphere, which could be due to the mis-representation of cloud processes or of the large-scale circulation, or to excessive diffusion during water vapor transport. The goal of this study is to use observations of the water vapor isotopic ratio to understand the cause of this bias. We compare the three-dimensional distribution of the water vapor isotopic …

Linking Nitrogen Biogeochemistry To Different Stages Of Wetland Soil Development In The Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Kelly Marie Henry

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Extensive wetland loss and nutrient-enhanced eutrophication occur across the Mississippi River delta and include newly emergent landscapes, in the early stages of ecological succession, and older landscape formations, with fully developed ecological communities. Here I tested how the anthropogenic effects of a climate-induced vegetation shift, an oil spill, and nitrate-enrichment regulate the principal environmental factors controlling nutrient biogeochemistry in wetland soils at different stages of development throughout the Mississippi River delta. In the older, transgressing Barataria basin, there was no clear effect of the climate-induced species shift from Spartina alterniflora Loisel to Avicennia germinans L. on soil nutrient chemistry. Observed …