Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Changing Climatic Conditions In The Colorado River Basin: Implications For Water Resources Management In The Las Vegas Valley, Srijana Dawadi

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Climate change affects the water available in a region. It also affects the water demand, because of the increase in temperature. A system dynamics model was developed for the Colorado River Basin (CRB), operating at a monthly time scale, to assess the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow in the Colorado River and its subsequent impact on the water resources management in the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). The effect of climate change on streamflow was evaluated using 16 global climate model outputs for 3 emission scenarios, also referenced in the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Risk …

The Limits To Prediction In Ecological Systems, Brian Beckage, Louis J. Gross, Stuart Kauffman

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Predicting the future trajectories of ecological systems is increasingly important as the magnitude of anthropogenic perturbation of the earth systems grows.We distinguish between two types of predictability: the intrinsic or theoretical predictability of a system and the realized predictability that is achieved using available models and parameterizations. We contend that there are strong limits on the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems that arise from inherent characteristics of biological systems. While the realized predictability of ecological systems can be limited by process and parameter misspecification or uncertainty, we argue that the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems is widely and strongly limited …

Climate Change In The Piscataqua/Great Bay Region: Past, Present, And Future, Cameron P. Wake, Elizabeth Burakowski, Eric Kelsey, Katharine Hayhoe, Anne Stoner, Chris Watson, Ellen Douglas

The Sustainability Institute Publications

Earth ’s climate changes. It always has and always will. However, an extensive body of scientific evidence indicates that human activities are now a significant force driving change in the Earth’s climate system. This report describes how the climate of the Piscataqua/Great Bay region of coastal New Hampshire in the United States has changed over the past century and how the future climate of the region will be affected by human activities that are warming the planet.

Overall, the region has been getting warmer and wetter over the last century, and the rate of change has increased over the last …

Heating Up The Forest: Open-Top Chamber Warming Manipulation Of Arthropod Communities At Harvard And Duke Forests, Shannon L. Pelini, Francis P. Bowles, Aaron M. Ellison, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Nathan J. Sanders, Robert R. Dunn

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

1.Recent observations indicate that climatic change is altering biodiversity, and models suggest that the consequences of climate change will differ across latitude. However, long-term experimental field manipulations that directly test the predictions about organisms' responses to climate change across latitude are lacking. Such experiments could provide a more mechanistic understanding of the consequences of climate change on ecological communities and subsequent changes in ecosystem processes, facilitating better predictions of the effects of future climate change. 2.This field experiment uses octagonal, 5-m-diameter (c.22m 3) open-top chambers to simulate warming at northern (Harvard Forest, Massachusetts) and southern (Duke Forest, North Carolina) hardwood …

Pakistan’S Two-Stage Monsoon And Links With The Recent Climate Change, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Robert Davies, Wan Ru Huang, Robert R. Gillies

Plants, Soils, and Climate Faculty Publications

Meteorological conditions related to the Pakistan floods of 2010 were examined in the context of monsoon dynamics and large‐scale circulations. Case and climatological analyses suggest that summer precipitation in northern Pakistan comprises two distinct phases: (1) a premonsoon trough phase (July) whose rainfall is more episodic and intense, occurring prior to arrival of the monsoon trough, and (2) a monsoon trough phase (August) whose rainfall is persistent, yet less episodic, driven by northward migration of the monsoon trough. Analyses of conditional instability, moisture flux, and circulation features support a persistent increase in conditional instability during the July premonsoon trough phase, …

Severe 2010 Cold-Water Event Caused Unprecedented Mortality To Corals Of The Florida Reef Tract And Reversed Previous Survivorship Patterns, Diego Lirman, Stephanie Schopmeyer, Derek Manzello, Lewis J. Gramer, William F. Precht, Frank E. Muller-Karger, Kenneth Banks, Brian Barnes, Erich Bartels, Amanda Bourque, James Byrne, Scott Donahue, Janice Duquesnel, Louis Fisher, David S. Gilliam, James C. Hendee, Meaghan E. Johnson, Kerry Maxwell, Erin Mcdevitt, Jamie Monty, Digna Rueda, Rob Ruzicka, Sara Thanner

Marine & Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles

Background

Coral reefs are facing increasing pressure from natural and anthropogenic stressors that have already caused significant worldwide declines. In January 2010, coral reefs of Florida, United States, were impacted by an extreme cold-water anomaly that exposed corals to temperatures well below their reported thresholds (16°C), causing rapid coral mortality unprecedented in spatial extent and severity.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Reef surveys were conducted from Martin County to the Lower Florida Keys within weeks of the anomaly. The impacts recorded were catastrophic and exceeded those of any previous disturbances in the region. Coral mortality patterns were directly correlated to in-situ and satellite-derived …

Collaborative Research: Asian Ice Core Array (Aica)--Reconstruction Of Past Physical And Chemical Climate Over Asia, Paul Mayewski, Karl J. Kreutz, Andrei V. Kurbatov

University of Maine Office of Research Administration: Grant Reports

Funding is provided to help the researchers build on success using ice cores for understanding past physical and chemical climate change from Antarctica, Arctic, North Pacific and Asia by analyzing and interpreting a new array of Asian ice cores. The researchers plan to use five existing ice cores and collect one new ice core to enhance the reconstruction of environmental conditions over Asia.

The primary research questions for the Asian Ice Core Array (AICA) research include:

(1) Asian climate variability - How do major Asian circulation features (i.e., Asian monsoon, Westerlies, polar air masses, Siberian and Tibetan Highs) vary on …

Old Dominion University Climate Change And Sea Level Rise Initiative, Summer Update 2011, Larry P. Atkinson (Editor)

CCSLRI Newsletters

Summer 2011 Newsletter of the Old Dominion University Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative

Identifying Changes In Climatic Trends And The Fingerprints Of Landuse And Landcover Changes In The High Plains Of The Usa, Denis Mutiibwa

Department of Agricultural and Biological Systems Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Human activities such as conversion of natural ecosystem to croplands and urban-centers, deforestation and afforestation impact biophysical properties of land surface such as albedo, energy balance, and surface roughness. Alterations in these properties affect the heat and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmospheric boundary layer. The objectives of this research were; (i) to quantitatively identify the High plains’ regional climate change in temperatures over the period 1895 to 2006, (ii) detect the signatures of anthropogenic forcing of LULC changes on the regional climate change of the High Plains, and (iii) examine the trends in evolving regional latent heat …

Analyzing Past And Predicting Future Drought With Comprehensive Drought Indices For Arkansas-Red River Basin, Lu Liu, Yang Hong, James E. Hocker

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

This study is intended to examine the past drought and predict future drought scenarios for Arkansas-Red River Basin with comprehensive drought indices ranging from meteorology, hydro-meteorology to hydrology. In this proceeding, we present some early results and analysis with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Historical climate data within the 1900-2009 timeframe were archived to derive the drought indices calculations. The projected A2, A1B climate data modules from 16 statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCM) were applied in drought occurrence frequency and affected area prediction. The results from the SPI and PDSI show that …

Slides: Smart Fallowing: New Strategies In Ag Forbearance, Bonnie Colby

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Dr. Bonnie Colby, Department of Agriculture & Resource Economics, University of Arizona

34 slides

Materials For Presentation: Water Banks: Voluntary And Flexible Water Supplies For The Colorado River's Uncertain Future [Outline], Robert Wigington

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

4 pages.

"Robert Wigington, The Nature Conservancy"

Fact Sheet: Study Of Long-Term Augmentation Options For The Water Supply Of The Colorado System, Black & Veatch, Ch2m Hill

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

1 page.

"March 2008"

Material submitted by Les Lampe, Colorado River Water Consultants, for "Augmentation Options" program, Session 3: Mapping a New Course, Panel F: Some Policy Options and Solutions.

Colorado River Water Consultants is a project-specific partnership of engineering firms Black & Veatch and CH2MHill.

Agenda: Navigating The Future Of The Colorado River, University Of Colorado Boulder. Natural Resources Law Center, Western Water Policy Program

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Competition for scarce Colorado River water resources is nothing new, but the conflicts that prompted the seven basin states to negotiate the 1922 Colorado River Compact have grown considerably fiercer and more complex in recent decades. In 2007, responding to the challenges of increasing demand and sustained drought, the seven basin states and a number of other affected interests agreed to a set of interim guidelines for allocating Colorado River water in the event of shortages. This agreement represents an important evolution in the governance of the Colorado River, suggesting that the many interests in the basin can work together …

Can The Battle Against Climate Change Become An Effective Social Movement?, John Dernbach

John C. Dernbach

No abstract provided.

Effects Of Short-Term Warming On Low And High Latitude Forest Ant Communities, Shannon L. Pelini, Mark Boudreau, Neil Mccoy, Aaron M. Ellison, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Nathan J. Sanders, Robert R. Dunn

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

Climatic change is expected to have differential effects on ecological communities in different geographic areas. However, few studies have experimentally demonstrated the effects of warming on communities simultaneously at different locales. We manipulated air temperature with in situ passive warming and cooling chambers and quantified effects of temperature on ant abundance, diversity, and foraging activities (predation, scavenging, seed dispersal, nectivory, granivory) in two deciduous forests at 35° and 43° N latitude in the eastern U.S. In the southern site, the most abundant species, Crematogaster lineolata, increased while species evenness, most ant foraging activities, and abundance of several other ant species …

Slides: Arctic Ecosystem Services Measurement And Modeling Project, Eric Biltonen

Best Management Practices (BMPs): What? How? And Why? (May 26)

Presenter: Eric Biltonen, PhD, Environment Economist, Houston Advanced Research Center

8 slides

Federal Energy Efficiency And Conservation Laws, John Dernbach, Marianne Tyrrell

John C. Dernbach

This paper provides an overview of U.S. law and policy concerning energy efficiency and conservation. The United States appears torn between two narratives - one expressing the abundant demonstrated opportunities provided by energy savings and the other based on a fear of deprivation from using less energy. Rather than choosing between the two, U.S. law and policy splits the difference - embracing efficiency and conservation more or less halfheartedly. Energy efficiency and conservation policy thus has a Groundhog Day aspect, in which the same or similar arguments are made year after year, decade after decade, and often (it appears) to …

Impacts Of Tropospheric Ozone And Climate Change On Net Primary Productivity And Net Carbon Exchange Of China's Forest Ecosystems, Wei Ren, Hanqin Tian, Bo Tao, Arthur Chappelka, Ge Sun, Chaoqun (Crystal) Lu, Mingliang Liu, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaofeng Xu

Chaoqun (Crystal) Lu

We investigated how ozone pollution and climate change/variability have interactively affected net primary productivity (NPP) and net carbon exchange (NCE) across China's forest ecosystem in the past half century. Using the dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM) in conjunction with 10-km-resolution gridded historical data sets (tropospheric O3 concentrations, climate variability/change, and other environmental factors such as land-cover/land-use change (LCLUC), increasing CO2 and nitrogen deposition), we conducted nine simulation experiments to: (1) investigate the temporo-spatial patterns of NPP and NCE in China's forest ecosystems from 1961–2005; and (2) quantify the effects of tropospheric O3 pollution alone or in combination with climate variability …

Climate Change And Community Dynamics: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Of Resource-Driven Changes In A Desert Rodent Community, Glenda M. Yenni

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Predicting effects of climate change on species persistence often assumes that those species are responding to abiotic effects alone. However, biotic interactions between community members may affect species’ ability to respond to abiotic changes. Latent Gaussian models of resource availability using precipitation and NDVI and accounting for spatial autocorrelation and rodent group-level uncertainty in the process are developed to detect differences in seasons, groups, and the experimental removal of one group. Precipitation and NDVI have overall positive effects on rodent energy use as expected, but meaningful differences were detected. Differences in the importance of seasonality when the dominant group was …

Super-Aggregations Of Krill And Humpback Whales In Wilhelmina Bay, Antarctic Peninsula, Douglas P. Nowacek, Ari S. Friedlaender, Patrick N. Halpin, Elliott L. Hazen, David W. Johnston, Andrew J. Read, Boris Espinasse, Meng Zhou, Yiwu Zhu

Environmental, Earth, and Ocean Sciences Faculty Publication Series

Ecological relationships of krill and whales have not been explored in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), and have only rarely been studied elsewhere in the Southern Ocean. In the austral autumn we observed an extremely high density (5.1 whales per km²) of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) feeding on a super-aggregation of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) in Wilhelmina Bay. The krill biomass was approximately 2 million tons, distributed over an area of 100 km² at densities of up to 2000 individuals m⁻³; reports of such ‘super-aggregations’ of krill have been absent in …

Climate And Land Use Controls Over Terrestrial Water Use Efficiency In Monsoon Asia, Hanqin Tian, Chaoqun (Crystal) Lu, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaofeng Xu, Mingliang Liu, Wei Ren, Bo Tao, Ge Sun, Shufen Pan, Jiyuan Liu

Chaoqun (Crystal) Lu

Much concern has been raised regarding how and to what extent climate change and intensive human activities have altered water use efficiency (WUE, amount of carbon uptake per unit of water use) in monsoon Asia. By using a process-based ecosystem model [dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM)], we examined effects of climate change, land use/cover change, and land management practices (i.e. irrigation and nitrogen fertilization) on WUE in terrestrial ecosystems of monsoon Asia during 1948–2000. Our simulations indicated that due to climate variability/change, WUE in the entire area decreased by 3·6% during the study period, with the largest decrease of 6·8% …

Crop Updates 2011 - Nutrition, Precision Agriculture & Climate And Forecasting, Deb Archdeacon, Andrew Gulliver, David Cullen, Qifu Ma, Richard Bell, Ross Brennan, Craig Scanlan, Wen Chen, Geoff Anderson, Mike Bolland, Peter Rees, Sandy Alexander, Frank D'Emden, Stephen Davies, Breanne Best, Louise Barton, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Ralph Kiese, Daniel Murphy, Peter Newman, Roger Mandel, Roger Lawes, Michael Robertson, Derk Bakker, Jeremy Lemon, Alison Lacey, John Paul Collins, Glen Riethmuller, Fiona H. Evans, David Stephens, Caroline Peek, Tim Scanlon

Crop Updates

This session covers sixteen papers from different authors:

Nutrition

1. Balance® used in conventional cropping practice with half of the upfront fertiliser rate can sustain crop yield and build soil biological fertility, Deb Archdeacon1, Andrew Gulliver2 and David Cullen2, 1Agronomica, Wellington Mill, WA, 2Custom Composts, Nambeelup, WA

2. Effects of potassium (K) supply on plant growth, potassium uptake and grain Yield in wheat grown in grey sand, Qifu Ma1, Richard Bell1, Ross Brennan2 and Craig Scanlan2, 1School of Environmental Science, Murdoch University, 2Department of Agriculture and Food

3. Improving fertiliser management: redefining the …

Slides: Environmental Water In Australia, Chris Arnott

Conversation with Water Management Reps from Colorado and Australia: "Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons Learned from Australia" (February 14)

Presenter: Chris Arnott, Managing Director, Alluvium Consulting

30 slides

The Essential And Growing Role Of Legal Education In Achieving Sustainability, John Dernbach

John C. Dernbach

This article suggests that law schools need to play a leading role in the national and global effort to achieve sustainability, including the effort to address climate change. The article first describes the various drivers for sustainability in law schools. Clients are increasingly demanding that their lawyers 'walk the talk,' as many businesses and corporations already are. The universities that provide an institutional home for most law schools are also adopting sustainability policies and practices that influence their law schools. Within the legal profession, the American Bar Association, as well as many state and local bar associations, have adopted a …

Where Do We Stand On Global Warming?, Raymond S. Bradley

Raymond S Bradley

Global temperatures have risen by ~0.8°C since the end of the 19th century. This increase has not been linear, as there have been periods when temperatures were stable for short periods before rising once again. The reasons for these changes in the rate of temperature rise are related to anthropogenic factors (sulphate aerosol pollution versus greenhouse gas inputs to the atmosphere) as well as to natural factors (volcanic eruptions, solar irradiance variations, El Ni.o/Southern Oscillation [ENSO] fluctuations, etc). Over the last decade or so, temperatures have not risen at the same rate as in previous decades, and this has led …

Natural Archives, Changing Climates, Raymond S. Bradley

Raymond S Bradley

Climatic changes have occurred throughout human history, but instrumental measurements do not provide us with a very long perspective on climate variations. In many regions, instrumental records only extend back a century or two. To understand the longer-term variability of the climate system, we rely on natural archives— sediments, ice caps, peat bogs, cave deposits, banded corals and tree rings—in which a record of past changes in climate has been preserved. They are a treasure trove of the climatic and environmental history of the planet and provide information about factors that may have caused the climate to change, such as …

Colorado's Large Snow Events' Impact On Tree Ring Growth And Dillon Reservoir, Katrina Leona Marzetta

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Meteorological observations from 1894 through 2010 suggest that 17 historically large snow events occurred in the mountains of Colorado within Denver's water supply region. Of these 16 events, 14 can be identified in precipitation sensitive tree ring records as positive climatic pointer years. If these storms were to occur today, they would have the potential to fill reservoirs in Denver Water's supply system, even after years of sustained drought. These "drought busters" have the potential to refill Dillon Reservoir by increasing average yearly inflow up to 146% of the previous year's inflow. Such drought busters can help Denver recover from …

The "Cash For Clunkers" Program: A Sustainability Evaluation, Marianne Tyrrell, John Dernbach

John C. Dernbach

This article describes and evaluates the effectiveness of the Consumer Assistance to Recycle and Save Act of 2009, also known as the “Cash for Clunkers” legislation. Under this law, Congress authorized persons trading in older and less fuel-efficient motor vehicles for newer and more fuel-efficient vehicles to receive a voucher worth up to $4,500 toward the purchase of the new vehicle. The article reviews various studies assessing the effectiveness of this legislation based on economic, social, and environmental criteria. Because these criteria are consistent with the goals of sustainable development, the legislation provides important lessons for future efforts to achieve …

Energy Efficiency And Conservation: New Legal Tools And Opportunities, John Dernbach, Robert Mckinstry, Darin Lowder

John C. Dernbach

Many new and ambitious energy efficiency and conservation laws are being enacted at all levels of government—and with greater financial incentives than provided previously. These innovations are intended to overcome or minimize market barriers such as principal-agent problems, information and transaction costs, high internal discount rates, and up-front capital needs that discourage cost-saving investments. Innovations such as public-private partnerships also require significant legal input and creativity for the client to reap the often remarkably large energy and cost savings. This article reviews a range of these tools, especially financial legal mechanisms, that could help significantly reduce U.S. energy consumption.