Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Lightning Forecast From Chaotic And Incomplete Time Series Using Wavelet De-Noising And Spatiotemporal Kriging, Jared K. Nystrom, Raymond Hill, Andrew J. Geyer, Joseph J. Pignatiello Jr., Eric Chicken

Faculty Publications

Purpose: Present a method to impute missing data from a chaotic time series, in this case lightning prediction data, and then use that completed dataset to create lightning prediction forecasts.

Design/Methodology/Approach: Using the technique of spatiotemporal kriging to estimate data that is autocorrelated but in space and time. Using the estimated data in an imputation methodology completes a dataset used in lighting prediction.

Findings: The techniques provided prove robust to the chaotic nature of the data, and the resulting time series displays evidence of smoothing while also preserving the signal of interest for lightning prediction.

Abstract © Emerald Publishing …

Optimal Estimation Inversion Of Ionospheric Electron Density From Gnss-Pod Limb Measurements: Part I-Algorithm And Morphology, Dong L. Wu, Nimalan Swarnalingam, Cornelius Csar Jude H. Salina, Daniel J. Emmons, Tyler C. Summers, Robert Gardiner-Garden

Faculty Publications

GNSS-LEO radio links from Precise Orbital Determination (POD) and Radio Occultation (RO) antennas have been used increasingly in characterizing the global 3D distribution and variability of ionospheric electron density (Ne). In this study, we developed an optimal estimation (OE) method to retrieve Ne profiles from the slant total electron content (hTEC) measurements acquired by the GNSS-POD links at negative elevation angles (ε < 0°). Although both OE and onion-peeling (OP) methods use the Abel weighting function in the Ne inversion, they are significantly different in terms of performance in the lower ionosphere. The new OE results can overcome the large Ne oscillations, sometimes negative values, seen in the OP retrievals in the E-region ionosphere. In the companion paper in this Special Issue, the HmF2 and NmF2 from the OE retrieval are validated against ground-based ionosondes and radar observations, showing generally good agreements in NmF2 from all sites. Nighttime hmF2 measurements tend to agree better than the daytime when the ionosonde heights tend to be slightly lower. The OE algorithm has been applied to all GNSS-POD data acquired from the COSMIC-1 (2006–2019), COSMIC-2 (2019–present), and Spire (2019–present) constellations, showing a consistent ionospheric Ne morphology. The unprecedented spatiotemporal sampling of the ionosphere from these constellations now allows a detailed analysis of the frequency–wavenumber spectra for the Ne variability at different heights. In the lower ionosphere (~150 km), we found significant spectral power in DE1, DW6, DW4, SW5, and SE4 wave components, in addition to well-known DW1, SW2, and DE3 waves. In the upper ionosphere (~450 km), additional wave components are still present, including DE4, DW4, DW6, SE4, and SW4. The co-existence of eastward- and westward-propagating wave4 components implies the presence of a stationary wave4 (SPW4), as suggested by other earlier studies. Further improvements to the OE method are proposed, including a tomographic inversion technique that leverages the asymmetric sampling about the tangent point associated with GNSS-LEO links.

Remote Internal Wave Forcing Of Regional Ocean Simulations Near The U.S. West Coast, Oladeji Q. Siyanbola, Maarten C. Buijsman, Audrey Delpech, Lionel Renault, Roy Barkan, Jay F. Shriver, Brian K. Arbic, James C. Mcwilliams

Faculty Publications

Low mode internal waves are able to propagate across ocean basins and modulate ocean dynamics thousands of kilometers away from their generation sites. In this study, the impact of remotely generated internal waves on the internal wave energetics near the U.S. West Coast is investigated with realistically forced regional ocean simulations. At the open boundaries, we impose high-frequency oceanic state variables obtained from a global ocean simulation with realistic atmospheric and astronomical tidal forcing. We use the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) technique in separating ingoing and outgoing internal tide energy fluxes at the open boundaries in order to quantify internal …

Soil Organic Matter Diagenetic State Informs Boreal Forest Ecosystem Feedbacks To Climate Change, Allison N. Myers-Pigg, Karl Kaiser, Ronald Benner, Susan E. Ziegler

Faculty Publications

The fate of soil organic carbon (SOC) in boreal forests is dependent on the integrative ecosystem response to climate change. For example, boreal forest productivity is often nitrogen (N) limited, and climate warming can enhance N cycling and primary productivity. However, the net effect of this feedback on the SOC reservoir and its longevity with climate change remain unclear due to difficulty in detecting small differences between large and variable carbon (C) fluxes needed to determine net changes in soil reservoirs. The diagenetic state of SOC – resulting from the physicochemical and biological transformations that alter the original biomolecular composition …

Atmospheric Meteorological Effects On Forecasting Daily Lightning Occurrence At Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Jon Saul [*], Torrey J. Wagner, Eric G. Mbonimpa, Brent T. Langhals

Faculty Publications

As the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and Kennedy Space Center increase their launch rate, any process that could assist in the automation of the currently-manual lightning forecast would be valuable. This work examines the possibility of machine-learning assistance with the daily lighting forecast which is produced by the 45th Weather Squadron. A dataset consisting of 34 lightning, pressure, temperature and windspeed measurements taken from 334 daily weather balloon (rawinsonde) launches in the timeframe 2012-2021 was examined. Models were created using recursive feature elimination on logistic regression and XGClassifier algorithms, as well as Bayesian and bandit optimization of neural network …

The Behavior Of Partially Coherent Twisted Space-Time Beams In Atmospheric Turbulence, Milo W. Hyde Iv

Faculty Publications

We study how atmospheric turbulence affects twisted space-time beams, which are non-stationary random optical fields whose space and time dimensions are coupled with a stochastic twist. Applying the extended Huygens–Fresnel principle, we derive the mutual coherence function of a twisted space-time beam after propagating a distance z through atmospheric turbulence of arbitrary strength. We specialize the result to derive the ensemble-averaged irradiance and discuss how turbulence affects the beam’s spatial size, pulse width, and space-time twist. Lastly, we generate, in simulation, twisted space-time beam field realizations and propagate them through atmospheric phase screens to validate our analysis.