Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Assessing The Real-Time Lagrangian Predictability Of The Operational Navy Coastal Ocean Model In The Gulf Of Mexico, Lea Kristen Locke

Dissertations

This study quantitatively assesses the drift predictive skill of Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center’s (FNMOC’s) operational ocean models which are used to support a wide range of military and civilian applications. Overall, the findings of this work support the recommendation of spatial filtering for regional-scale ocean model velocity fields used in deep-water drift applications. In conjunction with filtering, the use of a pure particle drift algorithm is suggested for short-term forecasts and a drift algorithm including a sub-grid scale, random flight, parameterization for predictions requiring extended forecast predictions.

Drift prediction skill is quantified through metrics of in-cloud percentage, distance …