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Consistency Of Projected Drought Over The Sahel With Changes In The Monsoon Circulation And Extremes In A Regional Climate Model Projections, M. B. Sylla, A. T. Gaye, G. S. Jenkins, Jeremy S. Pal, F. Giorgi

Jeremy Pal

As a step toward an increased understanding of climate change over West Africa, in this paper we analyze the relationship between rainfall changes and monsoon dynamics in high-resolution regional climate model experiments performed using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3). Multidecadal simulations are carried out for present-day and future climate conditions under increased greenhouse gas forcing driven by the global climate model European Center/Hamburg 5 (ECHAM5). Compared to the present day, the future scenario simulation produces drier conditions over the Sahel and wetter conditions over orographic areas. The Sahel drying is accompanied by a weaker monsoon flow, a southward migration and …