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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Analysis Of Uncertainty In Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasts, Carolien N. Mossel
Analysis Of Uncertainty In Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasts, Carolien N. Mossel
Dissertations and Theses
Ensemble hydrometeorological forecasting has great potential for improving flood predictions and use in water management systems, however, the amount of data used and created with an ensemble forecast requires a careful and intentional approach to understand how useful and skillful the forecast is. The NOAA National Water Model (NWM) was run using downscaled NOAA Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) meteorological forcings for the 2016-2017 wet season (October-March) in California to create an 11-member hydrologic forecast ensemble. To evaluate the performance of these ensemble forecasts, we chose to study streamflow sites within Sonoma County, California, a rain-dominated region which includes the …
On The Improvements Of Boundary-Layer Representation For High Resolution Weather Forecasting In Costal-Urban Environments, David Melecio-Vazquez
On The Improvements Of Boundary-Layer Representation For High Resolution Weather Forecasting In Costal-Urban Environments, David Melecio-Vazquez
Dissertations and Theses
As large urban centers around the world become more densely populated, the global conversion from natural to man-made land surfaces will only increase. These land-use changes affect the urban surface energy budget which in turn changes the structure of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) above. With current high-performance computing systems, meteorological and built environment information can be better utilized to quantify the anthropogenic effects of these modifications. Although these systems have improved forecasting near-surface weather conditions, a comprehensive approach to represent urban impacts on the PBL is still limited. Improved PBL representation can lead to better weather and climate forecasts, …