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Projecting The Covid-19 Weekly Deaths And Hospitalizations For Jefferson County, Kentucky, Seyed Karimi, Natalie Dupre, W. Paul Mckinney, Bert B. Little, Naiya Patel, Sarah Moyer
Projecting The Covid-19 Weekly Deaths And Hospitalizations For Jefferson County, Kentucky, Seyed Karimi, Natalie Dupre, W. Paul Mckinney, Bert B. Little, Naiya Patel, Sarah Moyer
The University of Louisville Journal of Respiratory Infections
Introduction: The trends in the numbers of active hospitalizations and fatalities caused by the COVID-19 in Jefferson County, Kentucky, were projected over the period May 7 to August 20, 2020.
Methods: The projections provided in this report are from a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model. The model was calibrated using the COVID-19 transmission dynamics parameters from relevant literature and clinical dynamics parameters from the county’s data. The model was used to measure the impact of public health policy interventions designed to contain the infection. The policy was modeled by its intervention day and impact on the transmission of the virus such that …