Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Identifying The Serious Clinical Outcomes Of Adverse Reactions To Drugs By A Multi-Task Deep Learning Framework, Haochen Zhao, Peng Ni, Qichang Zhao, Xiao Liang, Di Ai, Shannon Erhardt, Jun Wang, Yaohang Li, Jiianxin Wang

Computer Science Faculty Publications

Adverse Drug Reactions (ADRs) have a direct impact on human health. As continuous pharmacovigilance and drug monitoring prove to be costly and time-consuming, computational methods have emerged as promising alternatives. However, most existing computational methods primarily focus on predicting whether or not the drug is associated with an adverse reaction and do not consider the core issue of drug benefit-risk assessment-whether the treatment outcome is serious when adverse drug reactions occur. To this end, we categorize serious clinical outcomes caused by adverse reactions to drugs into seven distinct classes and present a deep learning framework, so-called GCAP, for predicting the …

Association Between The Health Belief Model, Exercise, And Nutrition Behaviors During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Keagan Kiely, Bill Mase, Andrew R. Hansen, Jessica S. Schwind

Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences Faculty Publications

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected our nation’s health further than the infection it causes. Physical activity levels and dietary intake have suffered while individuals grapple with the changes in behavior to reduce viral transmission. With unique nuances regarding the access to physical activity and nutrition during the pandemic, the constructs of Health Belief Model (HBM) may present themselves differently in nutrition and exercise behaviors compared to precautions implemented to reduce viral transmission studied in previous research. The purpose of this study was to investigate the extent of exercise and nutritional behavior change during the COVID-19 pandemic and explain the …

A Review Of Risk Concepts And Models For Predicting The Risk Of Primary Stroke, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Articles

Predicting an individual's risk of primary stroke is an important tool that can help to lower the burden of stroke for both the individual and society. There are a number of risk models and risk scores in existence but no review or classification designed to help the reader better understand how models differ and the reasoning behind these differences. In this paper we review the existing literature on primary stroke risk prediction models. From our literature review we identify key similarities and differences in the existing models. We find that models can differ in a number of ways, including the …

Quantifying The Relationship Between Sub-Population Wastewater Samples And Community-Wide Sars-Cov-2 Seroprevalence, Ted Smith, Rochelle H. Holm, Rachel J. Keith, Alok R. Amraotkar, Chance R. Alvarado, Krzysztof Banecki, Boseung Choi, Ian Santisteban, Adrienne M. Bushau-Sprinkle, Kathleen T. Kitterman, Joshua Fuqua, Krystal T. Hamorsky, Kenneth E. Palmer, J. Michael Brick, Aruni Bhatnagar, Grzegorz A. Rempala

Faculty Scholarship

Robust epidemiological models relating wastewater to community disease prevalence are lacking. Assessments of SARS-CoV-2 infection rates have relied primarily on convenience sampling, which does not provide reliable estimates of community disease prevalence due to inherent biases. This study conducted serial stratified randomized samplings to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in 3717 participants and obtained weekly samples of community wastewater for SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in Jefferson County, KY (USA) from August 2020 to February 2021. Using an expanded Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, the longitudinal estimates of the disease prevalence were obtained and compared with the wastewater concentrations using regression analysis. The model analysis …

Statistical Analysis Methods Applied To Early Outpatient Covid-19 Treatment Case Series Data, Eleftherios Gkioulekas, Peter A. Mccullough, Vladimir Zelenko

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

When confronted with a public health emergency, significant innovative treatment protocols can sometimes be discovered by medical doctors at the front lines based on repurposed medications. We propose a statistical framework for analyzing the case series of patients treated with such new protocols, that enables a comparison with our prior knowledge of expected outcomes, in the absence of treatment. The goal of the proposed methodology is not to provide a precise measurement of treatment efficacy, but to establish the existence of treatment efficacy, in order to facilitate the binary decision of whether the treatment protocol should be adopted on an …

An Odd-Protocol For Agent-Based Model For The Spread Of Covid-19 In Ireland, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Reports

No abstract provided.

Reinvigorating A Technical Countering Weapons Of Mass Destruction Distance Learning Graduate Certificate Program, James C. Petrosky, Gaiven Varshney, Jeremy Slagley, Sara Shaghaghi

Faculty Publications

Current Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD) demands can be divided broadly into policy and science. The science of chemical, biological, and radiological/nuclear weapons informs the limits of development, production, employment, operation, detection, risk characterization, human and material protection, and medical intervention. In short, the science of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) should precede and inform the development of policy. It is to this end that the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) CWMD program was re-established, providing a technical educational option for practitioners to understand the science behind a very technically challenging subject.

Adapting An Agent-Based Model Of Infectious Disease Spread In An Irish County To Covid-19, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Articles

The dynamics that lead to the spread of an infectious disease through a population can be characterized as a complex system. One way to model such a system, in order to improve preparedness, and learn more about how an infectious disease, such as COVID-19, might spread through a population, is agent-based epidemiological modelling. When a pandemic is caused by an emerging disease, it takes time to develop a completely new model that captures the complexity of the system. In this paper, we discuss adapting an existing agent-based model for the spread of measles in Ireland to simulate the spread of …

A Comparison Of Prospective Space-Time Scan Statistics And Spatiotemporal Event Sequence Based Clustering For Covid-19 Surveillance, Fuyu Xu, Kate Beard

Teaching, Learning & Research Documents

The outbreak of the COVID-19 disease was first reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Cases in the United States began appearing in late January. On March 11, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic. By mid-March COVID-19 cases were spreading across the US with several hotspots appearing by April. Health officials point to the importance of surveillance of COVID-19 to better inform decision makers at various levels and efficiently manage distribution of human and technical resources to areas of need. The prospective space-time scan statistic has been used to help identify emerging COVID-19 disease clusters, but results from …

The Effects Of Differences In Vaccination Rates Across Socioeconomic Groups On The Size Of Measles Outbreaks, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Conference papers

Vaccination rates are often presented at the level of a country or region. However, within those areas there might be geographic or demographic pockets that have higher or lower vaccination rates. We use an agent-based model designed to simulate the spread of measles in Irish towns to examine if the effectiveness of vaccination rates to reduce disease at a population level is sensitive to the uniformity of vaccinations across socioeconomic groups. We find that when vaccinations are not applied evenly across socioeconomic groups we see more outbreaks and outbreaks with larger magnitudes.

Sars-Cov-2 Transmission In Alberta, British Columbia, And Ontario, Canada, December 25, 2019, To December 1, 2020, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Yuen Wai Hung, Sylvia Ofori, Kamalich Muniz-Rodriguez, Po-Ying Lai, Gerardo Chowell

Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences Faculty Publications

Objective:

This study aimed to investigate coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemiology in Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario, Canada.

Methods:

Using data through December 1, 2020, we estimated time-varying reproduction number, R t , using EpiEstim package in R, and calculated incidence rate ratios (IRR) across the 3 provinces.

Results:

In Ontario, 76% (92 745/121 745) of cases were in Toronto, Peel, York, Ottawa, and Durham; in Alberta, 82% (49 878/61 169) in Calgary and Edmonton; in British Columbia, 90% (31 142/34 699) in Fraser and Vancouver Coastal. Across 3 provinces, R t dropped to ≤ 1 after April. …

Using A Hybrid Agent-Based And Equation Based Model To Test School Closure Policies During A Measles Outbreak, Elizabeth Hunter, John D. Kelleher

Articles

Background

In order to be prepared for an infectious disease outbreak it is important to know what interventions will or will not have an impact on reducing the outbreak. While some interventions might have a greater effect in mitigating an outbreak, others might only have a minor effect but all interventions will have a cost in implementation. Estimating the effectiveness of an intervention can be done using computational modelling. In particular, comparing the results of model runs with an intervention in place to control runs where no interventions were used can help to determine what interventions will have the greatest …

Data-Fusion For Epidemiological Analysis Of Covid-19 Variants In Uae, Anoud Bani-Hani, Anaïs Lavorel, Newel Bessadet

All Works

Since December 2019, a new pandemic has appeared causing a considerable negative global impact. The SARS-CoV-2 first emerged from China and transformed to a global pandemic within a short time. The virus was further observed to be spreading rapidly and mutating at a fast pace, with over 5,775 distinct variations of the virus observed globally (at the time of submitting this paper). Extensive research has been ongoing worldwide in order to get a better understanding of its behaviour, influence and more importantly, ways for reducing its impact. Data analytics has been playing a pivotal role in this research to obtain …

Surveys For Ticks On Wildlife Hosts And In The Environment At Asian Longhorned Tick (Haemaphysalis Longicornis)-Positive Sites In Virginia And New Jersey, 2018, Seth A. White, Sarah N. Bevins, Mark G. Ruder, David Shaw, Stacey L. Vigil, Adam Randall, Thomas J. Deliberto, Kristen Dominguez, Alec T. Thompson, James W. Mertins, Jeffrey T. Alfred, Michael J. Yabsley

USDA Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Haemaphysalis longicornis, the Asian longhorned tick (ALT), is native to eastern Asia, but it has become invasive in several countries, including Australia, New Zealand and recently in the eastern United States (US). To identify wild mammal and avian host species in the US, we conducted active wildlife surveillance in two states with known ALT infestations (Virginia and New Jersey). In addition, we conducted environmental surveys in both states. These surveillance efforts resulted in detection of 51 ALTinfested individuals from seven wildlife species, including raccoon (Procyon lotor), Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana), red fox (Vulpes vulpes …

A Hybrid Agent-Based And Equation Based Model For The Spread Of Infectious Diseases, Elizabeth Hunter, Brian Mac Namee, John D. Kelleher

Articles

Both agent-based models and equation-based models can be used to model the spread of an infectious disease. Equation-based models have been shown to capture the overall dynamics of a disease outbreak while agent-based models are able to capture heterogeneous characteristics of agents that drive the spread of an outbreak. However, agent-based models are computationally intensive. To capture the advantages of both the equation-based and agent-based models, we create a hybrid model where the disease component of the hybrid model switches between agent-based and equation-based. The switch is determined using the number of agents infected. We first test the model at …

Epidemiology Of Cancers In Men Who Have Sex With Men (Msm): A Protocol For Umbrella Review Of Systematic Reviews, Manoj Kumar Honaryar, Yelena Tarasenko, Maribel Almonte, Vitaly Smelov

Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences Faculty Publications

While earlier studies on men having sex with men (MSM) tended to examine infection-related cancers, an increasing number of studies have been focusing on effects of sexual orientation on other cancers and social and cultural causes for cancer disparities. As a type of tertiary research, this umbrella review (UR) aims to synthesize findings from existing review studies on the effects of sexual orientation on cancer. Relevant peer-reviewed systematic reviews (SRs) will be identified without date or language restrictions using MEDLINE, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and the International Prospective Register for Systematic Reviews, among others. The research team members will …

A Model For The Spread Of Infectious Diseases In A Region, Elizabeth Hunter, Brian Mac Namee, John D. Kelleher

Articles

In understanding the dynamics of the spread of an infectious disease, it is important to understand how a town’s place in a network of towns within a region will impact how the disease spreads to that town and from that town. In this article, we take a model for the spread of an infectious disease in a single town and scale it up to simulate a region containing multiple towns. The model is validated by looking at how adding additional towns and commuters influences the outbreak in a single town. We then look at how the centrality of a town …

Concordance Between Health Administrative Data And Survey-Derived Diagnoses For Mood And Anxiety Disorders, J. Edwards, A. Thind, S. Stranges, M. Chiu, Kelly K. Anderson

Epidemiology and Biostatistics Publications

Objective: To assess whether estimates of survey structured interview diagnoses of mood and anxiety disorders were concordant with diagnoses of these disorders obtained from health administrative data.

Methods: All Ontario respondents to the 2012 Canadian Community Health Survey-Mental Health (CCHS-MH) were linked to health administrative databases at ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences). Survey structured interview diagnoses were compared with health administrative data diagnoses obtained using a standardized algorithm. We used modified Poisson regression analyses to assess whether socio-demographic factors were associated with concordance between the two measures.

Results: Of the 4157 Ontarians included in our …

Rickettsialpox – A Rare But Not Extinct Disease: A Review Of The Literature And New Directions, Marina Eremeeva, Kamalich Muniz-Rodriguez

Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences Faculty Publications

Smallpox rickettsia is an urban zoonosis caused by Rickettsia akari. To date, R. akari is the only characterized representative of the group of spotted fevers transmitted by the gamasid mite Liponyssoides sanguineus, which is common among peridomic rodents. This disease was first described in New York in 1946, and a few years later a similar outbreak occurred in the Ukrainian SSR. Numerous serological studies and diagnostics of sporadic cases of smallpox rickettsiosis suggest its widespread occurrence on the planet; however, the current geography and incidence of smallpox rickettsiosis is unknown. Smallpox rickettsiosis is characterized by the classic clinical triad of …

Coccidioidomycosis: Medical And Spatio-Temporal Perspectives, Nikias Sarafoglou, Rafael Laniado-Laborin, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Coccidioidomycosis (CM) is a disease of major public health importance due to the challenges in its diagnosis and treatment. To understand CM requires the attributes of a multidisciplinary network analysis to appreciate the complexity of the medical, the environmental and the social issues involved: public health, public policy, geology, atmospheric science, agronomy, social sciences and finally humanities, all which provide insight into this population transformation.

In section 1 of this paper, we describe the CM-epidemiology, the clinical features, the diagnosis and finally the treatment.

In section 2, we highlight the most important contributions and controversies in the history of the …

9th Annual Postdoctoral Science Symposium, University Of Texas Md Anderson Cancer Center Postdoctoral Association

Annual Postdoctoral Science Symposium Abstracts

The mission of the Annual Postdoctoral Science Symposium (APSS) is to provide a platform for talented postdoctoral fellows throughout the Texas Medical Center to present their work to a wider audience. The MD Anderson Postdoctoral Association convened its inaugural Annual Postdoctoral Science Symposium (APSS) on August 4, 2011.

The APSS provides a professional venue for postdoctoral scientists to develop, clarify, and refine their research as a result of formal reviews and critiques of faculty and other postdoctoral scientists. Additionally, attendees discuss current research on a broad range of subjects while promoting academic interactions and enrichment and developing new collaborations.

Positive Association Between Dietary Inflammatory Index And The Risk Of Osteoporosis: Results From The Koges_Health Examinee (Hexa) Cohort Study, Hye Sun Kim, Cheongmin Sohn, Minji Kwon, Woori Na, Nitin Shivappa, James R. Hébert, Mi Kyung Kim

Faculty Publications

Previous studies have found that diet’s inflammatory potential is related to various diseases. However, little is known about its relationship with osteoporosis. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between the dietary inflammatory index (DII®) and osteoporosis risk in a large-scale prospective cohort study in Korea. This prospective cohort study included 159,846 participants (men 57,740; women 102,106) from South Korea with a mean follow-up of 7.9 years. The DII was calculated through a validated semi-quantitative FFQ (SQFFQ), and information on osteoporosis was self-reported by the participants. Analyses were performed by using a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model. …

Indicators For Early Assessment Of Palliative Care In Lung Cancer Patients: A Population Study Using Linked Health Data, Maria Kelly, Katie M. O'Brien, Michael Lucey, Kerri Clough-Gorr, Ailish Hannigan

Department of Mathematics Publications

Analysing linked, routinely collected data may be useful to identify characteristics of patients with suspected lung cancer who could benefit from early assessment for palliative care. The aim of this study was to compare characteristics of newly diagnosed lung cancer patients dying within 30 days of diagnosis (short term survivors) with those surviving more than 30 days. To identify indicators for early palliative care assessment we distinguished between characteristics available at diagnosis (age, gender, smoking status, marital status, comorbid disease, admission type, tumour stage and histology) from those available post diagnosis. A second aim was to examine the association between …

Dietary Inflammatory Index And Cardiovascular Risk And Mortality—A Meta-Analysis, Nitin Shivappa, Justyna Godos, James R. Hébert, Michael Wirth, Gabriele Piuri, Attilio Speciani, Giuseppe Grosso

Faculty Publications

Diet and chronic inflammation have been suggested to be risk factors in the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and related mortality. The possible link between the inflammatory potential of diet measured through the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII^®) and CVD has been investigated in several populations across the world. The aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis on studies exploring this association. Data from 14 studies were eligible, of which two were case-control, eleven were cohort, and one was cross-sectional. Results from the random-effects meta-analysis showed a positive association between increasing DII, indicating a pro-inflammatory diet, and …

Organic Solvent Exposure And Depressive Symptoms Among Licensed Pesticide Applicators In The Agricultural Health Study, Miriam Siegel, Sarah E. Starks, Wayne T. Sanderson, Freya Kamel, Jane A. Hoppin, Fred Gerr

Epidemiology and Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Purpose

Although organic solvents are often used in agricultural operations, neurotoxic effects of solvent exposure have not been extensively studied among farmers. The current analysis examined associations between questionnaire-based metrics of organic solvent exposure and depressive symptoms among farmers.

Methods

Results from 692 male Agricultural Health Study participants were analyzed. Solvent type and exposure duration were assessed by questionnaire. An “ever-use” variable and years of use categories were constructed for exposure to gasoline, paint/lacquer thinner, petroleum distillates, and any solvent. Depressive symptoms were ascertained with the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D); scores were analyzed separately as continuous (0–60) …

Dietary Inflammatory Index And Colorectal Cancer Risk – A Meta-Analysis, Nitin Shivappa, Justyna Godos, James R. Hébert, Michael David Wirth, Gabriele Piuri, Attilio Speciani, Giuseppe Grosso

Faculty Publications

Diet and chronic inflammation of the colon have been suggested to be risk factors in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). The possible link between inflammatory potential of diet, measured through the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII®), and CRC has been investigated in several populations across the world. The aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis on studies exploring this association. Data from nine studies were eligible, of which five were case-control and four were cohort studies. Results from meta-analysis showed a positive association between increasing DII scores, indicating a pro-inflammatory diet, and CRC. Individuals in the highest versus …

Epidemiological, Clinical And Genetic Aspects Of Adult Onset Isolated Focal Dystonia In Ireland, L. Williams, E. Mcgovern, O. Kimmich, A. Molloy, I. Beiser, John Butler, F. Molloy, P. Logan, D.G. Healy, T. Lynch, R. Walsh, L. Cassidy, P. Moriarty, H. Moore, T. Mcswiney, C. Walsh, S. O'Riordan, M. Hutchinson

Articles

Background: Adult onset idiopathic isolated focal dystonia presents with a number of phenotypes. Reported prevalence rates vary considerably; well-characterized cohorts are important to our understanding of this disorder.

Aim: To perform a nationwide epidemiological study of adult onset idiopathic isolated focal dystonia in the Republic of Ireland.

Methods: Patients with adult onset idiopathic isolated focal dystonia were recruited from multiple sources. Diagnosis was based on assessment by a neurologist with an expertise in movement disorders. When consent was obtained, a number of clinical features including family history were assessed.

Results: On the prevalence date there were 592 individuals in Ireland …

Impact Of Disease On The Survival Of Three Commercially Fished Species, John M. Hoenig, Maya L. Groner, Matthew W. Smith, Wolfgang K. Vogelbein, David M. Taylor, Donald F. Landers Jr., John T. Swenarton, David T. Gauthier

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Recent increases in emergent infectious diseases have raised concerns about the sustainability of some marine species. The complexity and expense of studying diseases in marine systems often dictate that conservation and management decisions are made without quantitative data on population-level impacts of disease. Mark-recapture is a powerful, underutilized, tool for calculating impacts of disease on population size and structure, even in the absence of etiological information. We applied logistic regression models to mark-recapture data to obtain estimates of disease-associated mortality rates in three commercially important marine species: snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) in Newfoundland, Canada, that experience sporadic epizootics …

Optimal Control Analysis Of Ebola Disease With Control Strategies Of Quarantine And Vaccination, Muhammad Dure Ahmad, Muhammad Usman, Adnan Khan, Mudassar Imran

Mathematics Faculty Publications

The 2014 Ebola epidemic is the largest in history, affecting multiple countries in West Africa. Some isolated cases were also observed in other regions of the world.

The Role Of Mathematical Modeling In Designing And Evaluating Antimicrobial Stewardship Programs, Lester Caudill, Joanna R. Wares

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

Antimicrobial agent effectiveness continues to be threatened by the rise and spread of pathogen strains that exhibit drug resistance. This challenge is most acute in healthcare facilities where the well-established connection between resistance and sub-optimal antimicrobial use has prompted the creation of antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs). Mathematical models offer tremendous potential for serving as an alternative to controlled human experimentation for assessing the effectiveness of ASPs. Models can simulate controlled randomized experiments between groups of virtual patients, some treated with the ASP measure under investigation, and some without. By removing the limitations inherent in human experimentation, including health risks, study …