Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

The Predictive Hazard Ratio For Biomarker Evaluation Studies, Debashis Ghosh

Debashis Ghosh

There is tremendous scientific and medical interest in the use of biomarkers to better facilitate medical decision making. In this article, we present a simple framework for assessing the predictive ability of a biomarker. The methodology requires use of techniques from a subfield of survival analysis termed semicompeting risks; results are presented to make the article self-contained. A crucial parameter for evaluating is the predictive hazard ratio, which is different from the usual hazard ratio from Cox regression models for right-censored data. This quantity will be defined; its estimation, inference and adjustment for covariates will be discussed. Aspects of censoring …

A Causal Framework For Surrogate Endpoints With Semi-Competing Risks Data, Debashis Ghosh

Debashis Ghosh

In this note, we address the problem of surrogacy using a causal modelling framework that differs substantially from the potential outcomes model that pervades the biostatistical literature. The framework comes from econometrics and conceptualizes direct effects of the surrogate endpoint on the true endpoint. While this framework can incorporate the so-called semi-competing risks data structure, we also derive a fundamental non-identifiability result. Relationships to existing causal modelling frameworks are also discussed.

Meta-Analysis For Surrogacy: Accelerated Failure Time Models And Semicompeting Risks Modelling, Debashis Ghosh, Jeremy M. Taylor, Daniel J. Sargent

Debashis Ghosh

There has been great recent interest in the medical and statistical literature in the assessment and validation of surrogate endpoints as proxies for clinical endpoints in medical studies. More recently, authors have focused on using meta-analytical methods for quanti cation of surrogacy. In this article, we extend existing procedures for analysis based on the accelerated failure time model to this setting. An advantage of this approach relative to proportional hazards model is that it allows for analysis in the semi-competing risks setting, where we constrain the surrogate endpoint to occur before the true endpoint. A novel principal components procedure is …

Combining Multiple Models With Survival Data: The Phase Algorithm, Debashis Ghosh, Zheng Yuan

Debashis Ghosh

In many scientic studies, one common goal is to develop good prediction rules based on a set of available measurements. This paper proposes a model averaging methodology using proportional hazards regression models to construct new estimators of predicted survival probabilities. A screening step based on an adaptive searching algorithm is used to handle large numbers of covariates. The nite-sample properties of the proposed methodology is assessed using simulation studies. Application of the method to a cancer biomarker study is also given.

Composite Endpoint Analysis For Assessing Surrogacy With Censored Data, Debashis Ghosh

Debashis Ghosh

Background: There is great interest in the development of surrogate endpoints using new technologies in medical research. The promise of such endpoints is that they would allow for faster completion of clinical trials and would be potentially cost-effective.

Purpose: In determining surrogacy, it is important to distinguish the roles of surrogate from the true endpoint. The latter should be thought of as the gold standard. We discuss a framework in which the utility of a surrogate endpoint is based on whether or not as part of a composite endpoint, it yields treatment effects that associate with that on the true …