Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Multinomial Logistic Regression: An Application To Estimating Performance Of A Multiple Screening Test For Bowel Cancer When Negatives Are Unverified., Chris Lloyd, Don Frommer

Chris J. Lloyd

This paper describes a method of estimating the performance of a multiple screening test where those who test negative do not have their true disease status determined. The methodology is motivated by a dataset on 49,927 subjects who were given K=6 binary tests for bowel cancer. A complicating factor is that individuals may have polyps present in the bowel, a condition that the screening test is not designed to detect but which may be worth diagnosing. The methodology is based on a multinomial logit model for Pr(S|R_6), the probability distribution of patient status S (healthy, polyps or diseased) conditional on …