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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Simulating Phase Transitions And Control Measures For Network Epidemics Caused By Infections With Presymptomatic, Asymptomatic, And Symptomatic Stages, Benjamin Braun, Başak Taraktaş, Brian Beckage, Jane Molofsky
Simulating Phase Transitions And Control Measures For Network Epidemics Caused By Infections With Presymptomatic, Asymptomatic, And Symptomatic Stages, Benjamin Braun, Başak Taraktaş, Brian Beckage, Jane Molofsky
Mathematics Faculty Publications
We investigate phase transitions associated with three control methods for epidemics on small world networks. Motivated by the behavior of SARS-CoV-2, we construct a theoretical SIR model of a virus that exhibits presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and symptomatic stages in two possible pathways. Using agent-based simulations on small world networks, we observe phase transitions for epidemic spread related to: 1) Global social distancing with a fixed probability of adherence. 2) Individually initiated social isolation when a threshold number of contacts are infected. 3) Viral shedding rate. The primary driver of total number of infections is the viral shedding rate, with probability of …