Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Forecasting Economic Growth And Movements With Wavelet Transform And Arima Model, Omar Alsinglawi, Omar Alsinglawi, Mohammad Aladwan, Mohammad Aladwan, Saddam Alwadi, Saddam Alwadi

Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences

This study uses historical data and modern statistical models to forecast future Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Jordan. The Wavelet Transformation model (WT) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model were applied to the time series data and yielded a best-fitting result of (2,1,1) for estimating GDP between 2022-2031. The study concludes that GDP is expected to increase with a positive growth rate of around 3.22%, and recommends government agencies to monitor GDP, strengthen existing policies, and adopt necessary economic reforms to support growth. Additionally, the private sector is encouraged to enhance production tools to achieve economic growth that benefits …