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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Modelling Cholera In Periodic Environments, Drew Posny, Jin Wang
Modelling Cholera In Periodic Environments, Drew Posny, Jin Wang
Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications
We propose a deterministic compartmental model for cholera dynamics in periodic environments. The model incorporates seasonal variation into a general formulation for the incidence (or, force of infection) and the pathogen concentration. The basic reproduction number of the periodic model is derived, based on which a careful analysis is conducted on the epidemic and endemic dynamics of cholera. Several specific examples are presented to demonstrate this general model, and numerical simulation results are used to validate the analytical prediction.
A Generalized Cholera Model And Epidemic-Endemic Analysis, Jin Wang, Shu Liao
A Generalized Cholera Model And Epidemic-Endemic Analysis, Jin Wang, Shu Liao
Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications
The transmission of cholera involves both human-to-human and environment-to-human pathways that complicate its dynamics. In this paper, we present a new and unified deterministic model that incorporates a general incidence rate and a general formulation of the pathogen concentration to analyse the dynamics of cholera. Particularly, this work unifies many existing cholera models proposed by different authors. We conduct equilibrium analysis to carefully study the complex epidemic and endemic behaviour of the disease. Our results show that despite the incorporation of the environmental component, there exists a forward transcritical bifurcation at R0 = 1 for the combined human-environment epidemiological …
Stability Analysis And Application Of A Mathematical Cholera Model, Shu Liao, Jim Wang
Stability Analysis And Application Of A Mathematical Cholera Model, Shu Liao, Jim Wang
Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications
In this paper, we conduct a dynamical analysis of the deterministic cholera model proposed in [9]. We study the stability of both the disease-free and endemic equilibria so as to explore the complex epidemic and endemic dynamics of the disease. We demonstrate a real-world application of this model by investigating the recent cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe. Meanwhile, we present numerical simulation results to verify the analytical predictions.