Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

A Bayesian Framework To Unravel Food, Groundwater, And Climate Linkages: A Case Study From Louisiana, Nitin K. Singh, Ruchi Bhattacharya, David M. Borrok

Geosciences and Geological and Petroleum Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

Advancing our understanding of the connections among groundwater, food, and climate is critical to meet global food demands while optimizing water resources usage. However, our understanding of the linkages among groundwater, food, and climate is still limited. Here, we offer a Bayesian framework to simulate crop yield at a regional scale and quantify its relationships and associated uncertainty with climate, groundwater, agricultural, and energy-related variables. We implemented the framework in the rice-producing regions of Louisiana from 1960-2015. To build a parsimonious model, we used a probability-based variable selection approach to detect the key drivers of rice yield. Rice yield increased, …