Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Sampling Bias Overestimates Climate Change Impacts On Forest Growth In The Southwestern United States, Stefan Klesse, R. Justin Derose, Christopher H. Guiterman, Ann M. Lynch, Christopher D. O’Connor, John D. Shaw, Margaret E.K. Evans

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

Climate−tree growth relationships recorded in annual growth rings have recently been the basis for projecting climate change impacts on forests. However, most trees and sample sites represented in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) were chosen to maximize climate signal and are characterized by marginal growing conditions not representative of the larger forest ecosystem. We evaluate the magnitude of this potential bias using a spatially unbiased tree-ring network collected by the USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. We show that U.S. Southwest ITRDB samples overestimate regional forest climate sensitivity by 41–59%, because ITRDB trees were sampled at warmer and …

Assessment Of The Effects Of Climate Change On Evapotranspiration With An Improved Elasticity Method In A Nonhumid Area, Lei Tian, Jiming Jin, Pute Wu, Guo-Yue Niu

Watershed Sciences Faculty Publications

Climatic elasticity is a crucial metric to assess the hydrological influence of climate change. Based on the Budyko equation, this study performed an analytical derivation of the climatic elasticity of evapotranspiration (ET). With this derived elasticity, it is possible to quantitatively separate the impacts of precipitation, air temperature, net radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed on ET in a watershed. This method was applied in the Wuding River Watershed (WRW), located in the center of the Yellow River Watershed of China. The estimated rate of change in ET caused by climatic variables is −10.69 mm/decade, which is close to the …

Quantifying The Impact Of Climate Change And Human Activities On Streamflow In A Semi-Arid Watershed With The Budyko Equation Incorporating Dynamic Vegetation Information, Lei Tian, Jiming Jin, Pute Wu, Guo-Yue Niu

Watershed Sciences Faculty Publications

Understanding hydrological responses to climate change and land use and land cover change (LULCC) is important for water resource planning and management, especially for water-limited areas. The annual streamflow of the Wuding River Watershed (WRW), the largest sediment source of the Yellow River in China, has decreased significantly over the past 50 years at a rate of 5.2 mm/decade. Using the Budyko equation, this study investigated this decrease with the contributions from climate change and LULCC caused by human activities, which have intensified since 1999 due to China’s Grain for Green Project (GFGP). The Budyko parameter that represents watershed characteristics …

Can Farmers Adapt To Higher Temperatures? Evidence From India, Vis Taraz

Economics: Faculty Publications

Projections suggest that the damages from climate change will be substantial for developing countries. Understanding the ability of households in these countries to adapt to climate change is critical in order to determine the magnitude of the potential damages. In this paper, I investigate the ability of farmers in India to adapt to higher temperatures. I use a methodology that exploits short-term weather fluctuations as well as spatial variation in long-run climate. Specifically, I estimate how damaging high temperatures are for districts that experience high temperatures more or less frequently. I find that the losses from high temperatures are lower …

Climate Change Implications For Irrigation And Groundwater In The Republican River Basin, Usa, Gengxin Ou, Francisco Munoz-Arriola, Daniel R. Uden, Derrel Martin, Craig R. Allen, Nancy Shank

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

This study investigates the influence of climate change on groundwater availability, and thereby, irrigation across political boundaries within the US High Plains aquifer. A regression model is developed to predict changes in irrigation according to predicted changes in precipitation and temperature from a downscaled dataset of 32 general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation recharge changes are calculated with precipitation recharge curves developed for prognostic representations of precipitation across the Nebraska-Colorado-Kansas area and within the Republican River Basin focal landscape. Irrigation-recharge changes are scaled with changes in irrigation. The groundwater responses to climate forcings are then simulated under new pumping and recharge …

Impacts Of Climate Change And Bioenergy Markets On The Profitability Of Slash Pine Pulpwood Production In The Southeastern United States, Andres Susaeta, Pankaj Lal

Department of Earth and Environmental Studies Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

In this study, we assessed the impacts of climate change on the production of pulpwood and biomass for bioenergy, and the profitability of slash pine stands in the Southeastern United States. We employed the 3-PG (Physiological Processes Predicting Growth) model to determine the effects of future climates on forest growth and integrated it with a stand-level economic model to determine their impacts on optimal forestmanagement. We found that the average production of pulpwood increased for all sites by 7.5 m 3 ha -1 for all climatic scenarios and productivity conditions. In the case of forest biomass for bioenergy, the average …

Big Oil And Climate Change Denial, David Schelhaas

Faculty Work Comprehensive List

"One of the Alliance’s most basic commitments is to free market economic development fueled by coal and oil that will, as they see it, lift the poor out of poverty."

Posting about the philosophy of the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation from In All Things - an online journal for critical reflection on faith, culture, art, and every ordinary-yet-graced square inch of God’s creation.

https://inallthings.org/big-oil-and-climate-change-denial/

Not Masters But Stewards Of The Earth, David Schelhaas

Faculty Work Comprehensive List

"We are not servants of the earth but of the creator and Master of the earth, God."

Posting about the beliefs of the ­­­­­­­­Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation from In All Things - an online journal for critical reflection on faith, culture, art, and every ordinary-yet-graced square inch of God’s creation.

https://inallthings.org/not-masters-but-stewards-of-the-earth/

Seared And Bleared, Smudged And Smelly, David Schelhaas

Faculty Work Comprehensive List

"Most evangelicals oppose the very idea of climate change and are trying to inoculate their children so that they do not catch the 'climate concern' disease."

Posting about ­­­­­­­­why some Christians are climate change deniers from In All Things - an online journal for critical reflection on faith, culture, art, and every ordinary-yet-graced square inch of God’s creation.

https://inallthings.org/seared-and-bleared-smudged-and-smelly/

Unh Energy Task Force: 2017 Annual Report, Unh Energy Task Force

The Sustainability Institute Publications

The Energy Task Force (ETF) at the University of New Hampshire (UNH) was established in 2005 and is comprised of staff, faculty, and students. The ETF serves in an advisory capacity to the UNH President and makes recommendations on the full range of issues related to climate change and energy.

The fiscal year 2017 was a watershed year for the UNH and our commitment to renewable energy. Our greenhouse gas footprint is down 51% from the 2001 baseline and our electricity is now 100% powered by renewables. The University’s greenhouse gas emissions based on the number of students and gross …

Does Environment Filtering Or Seed Limitation Determine Post-Fire Forest Recovery Patterns In Boreal Larch Forests?, Wen H. Cai, Zhihua Liu, Yuan Z. Yang, Jian Yang

Forestry and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Wildfire is a primary natural disturbance in boreal forests, and post-fire vegetation recovery rate influences carbon, water, and energy exchange between the land and atmosphere in the region. Seed availability and environmental filtering are two important determinants in regulating post-fire vegetation recovery in boreal forests. Quantifying how these determinants change over time is helpful for understanding post-fire forest successional trajectory. Time series of remote sensing data offer considerable potential in monitoring the trajectory of post-fire vegetation recovery dynamics beyond current field surveys about structural attributes, which generally lack a temporal perspective across large burned areas. We used a time series …

Waterfall Formation At A Desert River-Reservoir Delta Isolates Endangered Fishes, Charles N. Cathcart, Casey A. Pennock, Christopher A. Cheek, Mark C. Mckinstry, Peter D. Mackinnon, Mary M. Conner, Keith B. Gido

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

Unforeseen interactions of dams and declining water availability have formed new obstacles to recovering endemic and endangered big-river fishes. During a recent trend of drying climate and declining reservoir water levels in the southwestern United States, a large waterfall has formed on two separate occasions (1989-1995 & 2001-present) in the transition zone between the San Juan River and Lake Powell reservoir because of deposited sediments. Because recovery plans for two large-bodied endangered fish species, razorback sucker (Xyrauchen texanus) and Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius), include annual stockings in the San Juan River, this waterfall potentially blocks upstream …

Governance For A Changing Climate: Adapting Boston’S Built Environment For Increased Flooding, Stephanie Kruel, Rebecca Herst, David Cash

School for the Environment Publications

Climate Change is impacting everything in our society and in our world. The changes we are already experiencing are starting to multiply and accelerate. Determining how to respond to this new reality wisely within the governance and governmental structures that we have built is a complex challenge. Some might argue it is humankind’s greatest test. Given the monumental size of this task, it is difficult to simultaneously address all of the related issues both broadly and deeply. This is the third and final in a series of reports from the Sustainable Solutions Lab that were sponsored by the Boston Green …

High Net Loss Of Intertidal Wetland Coverage In A Maine Estuary By Year 2100, Jack R. Mclachlan

Biology and Ecology Faculty Scholarship

Rising sea levels and coastal land use are predicted to synergistically impact coastal wetlands by reducing their extent and ecosystem functioning through a process known as “coastal squeeze”. Impervious surfaces associated with coastal development prevent the natural process of wetland migration, whereby intertidal wetland area is lost at its seaward edge to rising low water lines, but is replaced by eroding uplands and accumulating new wetland at its landward edge. As these constructed surfaces prevent the replacement of lost wetland, intertidal wetlands are “squeezed” by rising sea levels until they disappear. This study uses geographic information system (GIS) to predict …

The Melting ‘Crown Of The Continent’: Visual History Of Glacier National Park, Dori L. Gorczyca, Salma Monani, Sarah M. Principato

Environmental Studies Faculty Publications

Glacier National Park (GNP), located in northwest Montana, US, was signed into existence on 11 May 1910 by then President William Howard Taft. Conservationist George Bird Grinnell was instrumental in lobbying for the park’s creation and negotiated the sale with the Blackfeet Indians. As an editor of the outdoor magazine Field and Stream, Grinnell learned about the region from writer James Willard Schultz and made his first visit there in 1885. Enticed and amazed by the glaciers of the area, the high Rocky Mountain alpine terrain, and the flora and fauna that thrived here, Grinnell advocated for the creation …

How Does Climate Change Affect Endophytic Fungi?, Amber Toussaint, Natalie Christian, Katy Heath

PRECS student projects

Plant-associated microorganisms can have major effects on plant health, but climate change can affect plant microbiomes. While it is unknown how climate change will affect aboveground plant-associated microorganisms, such as foliar endophytic fungi, we hypothesize that increased CO₂ concentrations will increase species richness and diversity in endophytic fungal communities, because increased plant photosynthesis under elevated CO₂ will increase the resources available to the fungi.

"Waste Is Not Just Waste Anymore": Deconstructing The Relationship Between Sustainable Waste Prevention And Individual Socio-Demographic Characteristics (The Juxtaposition Of Ushongo Mtoni Village And Moshi Urban, Tanzania), Mahalia Smith

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

I am going to tell you a story about humans — their lives, livelihoods, environments, and their individual relationships to sustainable waste prevention. As developing countries, such as Tanzania experience economic growth, waste overflow and proper waste disposal become even more arduous challenges. Thus, it is becoming increasingly important to explore sustainable solutions such as waste prevention. Through conducting semi-structured interviews in two distinctly unique locations, Moshi Urban of the Kilimanjaro Region and Ushongo Village on the coast of Tanga Region, Tanzania, I explored how levels of awareness and involvement in sustainable waste prevention practices, specifically reducing, reusing, and recycling, …

Climate And Plant Controls On Soil Organic Matter In Coastal Wetlands, Michael J. Osland, Christopher A. Gabler, James B. Grace, Richard H. Day, Meagan L. Mccoy, Jennie L. Mcleod, Andrew S. From, Nicholas M. Enwright, Laura C. Feher, Camille L. Stagg

School of Earth, Environmental, and Marine Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Coastal wetlands are among the most productive and carbon‐rich ecosystems on Earth. Long‐term carbon storage in coastal wetlands occurs primarily belowground as soil organic matter (SOM). In addition to serving as a carbon sink, SOM influences wetland ecosystem structure, function, and stability. To anticipate and mitigate the effects of climate change, there is a need to advance understanding of environmental controls on wetland SOM. Here, we investigated the influence of four soil formation factors: climate, biota, parent materials, and topography. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico, we collected wetland plant and soil data across elevation and zonation gradients within 10 …

Farm Service Agency Employee Intentions To Use Weather And Climate Data In Professional Services, Rachel E. Schattman, Gabrielle Roesch-Mcnally, Sarah Wiener, Meredith T. Niles, David Y. Hollinger

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

This is a work of the U.S. Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.. Agricultural service providers often work closely with producers, and are well positioned to include weather and climate change information in the services they provide. By doing so, they can help producers reduce risks due to climate variability and change. A national survey of United States Department of …

The Effect Of Warmer Winters On The Demography Of An Outbreak Insect Is Hidden By Intraspecific Competition, Devin W. Goodsman, Guenchik Grosklos, Brian H. Aukema, Caroline Whitehouse, Katherine P. Bleiker, Nate G. Mcdowell, Richard S. Middleton, Chonggang Xu

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9‐year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km², that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on …

Feasibility Of Harbor-Wide Barrier Systems: Preliminary Analysis For Boston Harbor, Paul Kirshen, Mark Borrelli, Jarrett Byrnes, Robert F. Chen, Lucy Lockwood, Chris Watson, Kimberly Starbuck, Jack Wiggin, Allison Novelly, Kristin Uiterwyk, Kelli Thurson, Brett Mcmann, Carly Foster, Heather Sprague, Hugh Roberts, Di Jin, Kirk Bosma, Eric Holmes, Zach Stromer, Joe Famely, Alex Shaw, Brittany Hoffnagle, Rebecca Herst

School for the Environment Publications

The aim of this study is to provide the City of Boston with a preliminary assessment of the feasibilities and potential benefits, costs, and environmental impacts of three harborwide barrier configurations.

While this study is not comprehensive, and there are many ways that further research could refine and extend its findings, those findings were clear enough to justify making recommendations for next steps. The authors recommend that the City continue to focus its climate resilience strategy for the next several decades on the shore-based multi-layered approach described in Climate Ready Boston. Shore-based solutions would provide flood management more quickly at …

Big Data For Climate Change Actions And The Paradox Of Citizen Informedness, Kustini Lim-Wavde, Robert J. Kauffman

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Advanced sensor technology, social media, and other information technologies have provided us with “big data” on climate change. Due to the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Climate Observing System, climate observations and records, as well as discussions on climate-related concerns such as measurement of air temperature, are widely available now. The United Nations’ Global Pulse visualises public engagement on climate change globally, with data such as the volume of climate-related tweets. Big data, data analytics, and the sharing of scientific results in the popular press have created, as a result, an unprecedented level of citizen informedness—the degree to which citizens have …

Phenological Mismatch In Coastal Western Alaska May Increase Summer Season Greenhouse Gas Uptake, Katharine C. Kelsey, A. Joshua Leffler, Karen H. Beard, Ryan T. Choi, Joel A. Schmutz, Jeffery M. Welker

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

High latitude ecosystems are prone to phenological mismatches due to climate change- driven advances in the growing season and changing arrival times of migratory herbivores. These changes have the potential to alter biogeochemical cycling and contribute to feedbacks on climate change by altering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) through large regions of the Arctic. Yet the effects of phenological mismatches on gas fluxes are currently unexplored. We used a three-year field experiment that altered the start of the growing season and timing of grazing to …

Management Of An Urban Stormwater System Using Projected Future Scenarios Of Climate Models: A Watershed-Based Modeling Approach, Ranjeet Thakali, Ajay Kalra, Sajjad Ahmad, Kamal Qaiser

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Anticipating a proper management needs for urban stormwater due to climate change is becoming a critical concern to water resources managers. In an effort to identify best management practices and understand the probable future climate scenarios, this study used high-resolution climate model data in conjunction with advanced statistical methods and computer simulation. Climate model data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) were used to calculate the design storm depths for the Gowan Watershed of Las Vegas Valley, Nevada. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), was used for hydrological modeling. …

Carbon Flux And Weathering Processes In Icelandic Glacial-Fed Rivers, Allison Quiroga

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

An investigation into the carbon dynamics and weathering processes occurring in Icelandic glacial-fed streams was conducted during the spring to summer seasonal transition in June of 2017. Four major outlet rives were sampled from the glaciers of Gígjökull, Steinsholtsjökull, Sólheimajökull, and Falljökull. Markarfljót, the major river that Gígjökull, Steinsholtsjökull, and many other glaciers drain into, was also sampled. Longitudinal sampling occurred at all sites to capture downstream trends in the hydrogeochemistry and carbon dynamics. Distinct differences in geochemistry between glacier surface meltwater, sub-glacial waters, pro-glacial lake water, and post-mixed downstream samples were evident in the data. Glacier surface streams were …

Precipitation Extremes In Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios Over The Greater Horn Of Africa, Andualem Shiferaw, Tsegaye Tadesse, Clinton M. Rowe, Robert Oglesby

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This study first assesses the performance of regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in reproducing observed extreme precipitation indices over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region during 1989–2005. The study then assesses projected changes in these extremes during 2069–2098 compared to 1976–2005. The Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations are made using two RCMs, with large-scale forcing from four CMIP5 Global limate Models(GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that RCM simulations have reasonably captured observed patterns of moderate precipitation extreme indices (MPEI). Pattern correlation coefficients between simulated and observed MPEI …

Irrigated Agriculture And Future Climate Change Effects On Groundwater Recharge, Northern High Plains Aquifer, Usa, Zachary H. Lauffenburger, Jason J. Gurdak, Chris Hobza, Duane Woodward

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Understanding the controls of agriculture and climate change on recharge rates is critically important to develop appropriate sustainable management plans for groundwater resources and coupled irrigated agricultural systems. In this study, several physical (total potential (ψT) time series) and chemical tracer and dating (3H, Cl−, Br−, CFCs, SF6, and 3H/3He) methods were used to quantify diffuse recharge rates beneath two rangeland sites and irrigation recharge rates beneath two irrigated corn sites along an east-west (wet-dry) transect of the northern High Plains aquifer, Platte River Basin, central Nebraska. The field-based recharge estimates and historical climate were used to calibrate site-specific Hydrus-1D …

Changing Rainfall Frequency Rather Than Drought Rapidly Alters Annual Soil Respiration In A Tropical Forest, Qi Deng, Deqiang Zhang, Xi Han, Guowei Chu, Quanfa Zhang, Dafeng Hui

Biology Faculty Research

Tropical forests play an important role in global carbon (C) cycling due to high primary productivity and rapid litter and soil organic C decomposition. However, it is still unclear how changing rainfall will influence soil CO2 losses (i.e. via soil respiration) in tropical forests. Here, using a rainfall and litter manipulation experiment in a tropical forest, we show that enhanced litter-leached dissolved organic carbon (DOC) production with increased rainfall frequency drives substantial CO2 loss via soil respiration. A 50% increase in rainfall frequency (no change in total rainfall amount) enhanced inputs of DOC by 28%, total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) by …

Mixed Methods Approach To Understanding Farmer And Agricultural Advisor Perceptions Of Climate Change And Adaptation In Vermont, United States, Rachel E. Schattman, V. Ernesto Méndez, Scott C. Merrill, Asim Zia

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

The relationships among farmers’ belief in climate change, perceptions of climate-related risk, and use of climate adaptation practices is a growing topic of interest in U.S. scholarship. The northeast region is not well represented in the literature, although it is highly agricultural and will likely face climate-related risks that differ from those faced in other regions. We used a mixed methods approach to examine northeast farmers’ perceptions of climate change and climate-related risks over time, and perceived trade-offs associated with on-farm practices. Our investigation shows how northeastern farmers think about climate-risk, and what they are doing to address it.

Scientific And Technical Advisory Committee Review Of The Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’S Climate Change Assessment Framework And Programmatic Integration And Response Efforts, Maria Hermann, Scott Doney, Tal Ezer, Keryn Gedan, Philip Morefield, Barbara Muhling, Douglas Pirhalla, Stephen Shaw

CCPO Publications

[From the Executive Summary] The following report presents a synthesis of reviewer responses from the Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee’s (STAC) panel on the Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’s Climate Change Assessment Framework (CCAF) and Programmatic Integration and Response Efforts. The enclosed findings and recommendations are in response to the 16 questions delivered to the panel (Appendix A).

In summary, given the current state of knowledge, the combination of using climate model projections and downscaling provides an acceptable baseline for estimating changing climate conditions for the Chesapeake Bay, and the panel finds the CCAF approach to be fundamentally sound. However, the …