Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Added Value From 576 Years Of Tree-Ring Records In The Prediction Of The Great Salt Lake Level, Robert R. Gillies, Oi-Yu Chung, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, R. Justin Derose, Yan Sun

Wasatch Dendroclimatology Research

Predicting lake level fluctuations of the Great Salt Lake (GSL) in Utah – the largest terminal salt-water lake in the Western Hemisphere – is critical from many perspectives. The GSL integrates both climate and hydrological variations within the region and is particularly sensitive to low-frequency climate cycles. Since most hydroclimate variable records cover less than a century, forecasting the predominant yet under-represented decadal variability of the GSL level with such relatively short instrumental records poses a challenge. To overcome data limitations, this study assesses two options: (1) developing a model using the observational GSL elevation record of 137 years to …