Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Nitrogen Reductions Have Decreased Hypoxia In The Chesapeake Bay: Evidence From Empirical And Numerical Modeling, Luke T. Frankel, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Pierre St-Laurent, Aaron J. Bever, Rom Lipcius, Gopal Bhatt, Gary W. Shenk

VIMS Articles

Seasonal hypoxia is a characteristic feature of the Chesapeake Bay due to anthropogenic nutrient input from agriculture and urbanization throughout the watershed. Although coordinated management efforts since 1985 have reduced nutrient inputs to the Bay, oxygen concentrations at depth in the summer still frequently fail to meet water quality standards that have been set to protect critical estuarine living resources. To quantify the impact of watershed nitrogen reductions on Bay hypoxia during a recent period including both average discharge and extremely wet years (2016–2019), this study employed both statistical and three-dimensional (3-D) numerical modeling analyses. Numerical model results suggest that …

Long-Term Annual Aerial Surveys Of Submersed Aquatic Vegetation (Sav) Support Science, Management, And Restoration, Robert J. Orth, William C. Dennison, Cassie Gurbisz, (...), Kenneth A. Moore, Christopher J. Patrick, (..), David J. Wilcox, Richard A. Batiuk

VIMS Articles

Aerial surveys of coastal habitats can uniquely inform the science and management of shallow, coastal zones, and when repeated annually, they reveal changes that are otherwise difficult to assess from ground-based surveys. This paper reviews the utility of a long-term (1984–present) annual aerial monitoring program for submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) in Chesapeake Bay, its tidal tributaries, and nearby Atlantic coastal bays, USA. We present a series of applications that highlight the program’s importance in assessing anthropogenic impacts, gauging water quality status and trends, establishing and evaluating restoration goals, and understanding the impact of commercial fishing practices on benthic habitats. These …

Real-Time Environmental Forecasts Of The Chesapeake Bay: Model Setup, Improvements, And Online Visualization, Aaron Bever, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Pierre St-Laurent

VIMS Articles

Daily real-time nowcasts (current conditions) and 2-day forecasts of environmental conditions in the Chesapeake Bay have been continuously available for 4 years. The forecasts use a 3-D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model with 1–2 km resolution and 3-D output every 6 h that includes salinity, water temperature, pH, aragonite saturation state, alkalinity, dissolved oxygen, and hypoxic volume. Visualizations of the forecasts are available through a local institutional website (www.vims.edu/hypoxia) and the MARACOOS Oceans Map portal (https://oceansmap.maracoos.org/chesapeake-bay/). Modifications to real-time graphics on the local website are routinely made based on stakeholder input and are formatted for use on a mobile …

Advancing Estuarine Ecological Forecasts: Seasonal Hypoxia In Chesapeake Bay, Donald Scavia, Isabella Bertani, (...), Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Et Al

VIMS Articles

Ecological forecasts are quantitative tools that can guide ecosystem management. The coemergence of extensive environmental monitoring and quantitative frameworks allows for widespread development and continued improvement of ecological forecasting systems. We use a relatively simple estuarine hypoxia model to demonstrate advances in addressing some of the most critical challenges and opportunities of contemporary ecological forecasting, including predictive accuracy, uncertainty characterization, and management relevance. We explore the impacts of different combinations of forecast metrics, drivers, and driver time windows on predictive performance. We also incorporate multiple sets of state-variable observations from different sources and separately quantify model prediction error and measurement …

Long-Term Annual Aerial Surveys Of Submersed Aquatic Vegetation (Sav) Support Science, Management, And Restoration, Robert J. Orth, William C. Dennison, Cassie Gurbisz, Michael Hannam, Jeni Keisman, J. Brooke Landry, Jonathan S. Lefcheck, Kenneth A. Moore, Rebecca R. Murphy, Christopher J. Patrick, Jeremy Testa, Donald E. Weller, David J. Wilcox, Richard A. Batiuk

VIMS Articles

Aerial surveys of coastal habitats can uniquely inform the science and management of shallow, coastal zones, and when repeated annually, they reveal changes that are otherwise difficult to assess from ground-based surveys. This paper reviews the utility of a long-term (1984–present) annual aerial monitoring program for submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) in Chesapeake Bay, its tidal tributaries, and nearby Atlantic coastal bays, USA. We present a series of applications that highlight the program’s importance in assessing anthropogenic impacts, gauging water quality status and trends, establishing and evaluating restoration goals, and understanding the impact of commercial fishing practices on benthic habitats. These …

Toward A Coordinated Global Observing System For Seagrasses And Marine Macroalgae, J. Emmett Duffy, L. Benedetti-Cecchi, Et Al, Robert J. Orth, Et Al

VIMS Articles

In coastal waters around the world, the dominant primary producers are benthic macrophytes, including seagrasses and macroalgae, that provide habitat structure and food for diverse and abundant biological communities and drive ecosystem processes. Seagrass meadows and macroalgal forests play key roles for coastal societies, contributing to fishery yields, storm protection, biogeochemical cycling and storage, and important cultural values. These socio-economically valuable services are threatened worldwide by human activities, with substantial areas of seagrass and macroalgal forests lost over the last half-century. Tracking the status and trends in marine macrophyte cover and quality is an emerging priority for ocean and coastal …

Piecewisesem: Piecewise Structural Equation Modelling In R For Ecology, Evolution, And Systematics, Jonathan S. Lefcheck

VIMS Articles

Summary

1. Ecologists and evolutionary biologists rely on an increasingly sophisticated set of statistical tools to describe complex natural systems. One such tool that has gained significant traction in the biological sciences is structural equation models (SEM), a form of path analysis that resolves complex multivariate relationships among a suite of interrelated variables.

2. Evaluation of SEMs has historically relied on covariances among variables, rather than the values of the data points themselves. While this approach permits a wide variety of model forms, it limits the incorporation of detailed specifications. Recent developments have allowed for the simultaneous implementation of non‐normal distributions, random …

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