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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Real-Time Environmental Forecasts Of The Chesapeake Bay: Model Setup, Improvements, And Online Visualization, Aaron Bever, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Pierre St-Laurent
Real-Time Environmental Forecasts Of The Chesapeake Bay: Model Setup, Improvements, And Online Visualization, Aaron Bever, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Pierre St-Laurent
VIMS Articles
Daily real-time nowcasts (current conditions) and 2-day forecasts of environmental conditions in the Chesapeake Bay have been continuously available for 4 years. The forecasts use a 3-D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model with 1–2 km resolution and 3-D output every 6 h that includes salinity, water temperature, pH, aragonite saturation state, alkalinity, dissolved oxygen, and hypoxic volume. Visualizations of the forecasts are available through a local institutional website (www.vims.edu/hypoxia) and the MARACOOS Oceans Map portal (https://oceansmap.maracoos.org/chesapeake-bay/). Modifications to real-time graphics on the local website are routinely made based on stakeholder input and are formatted for use on a mobile …
Advancing Estuarine Ecological Forecasts: Seasonal Hypoxia In Chesapeake Bay, Donald Scavia, Isabella Bertani, (...), Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Et Al
Advancing Estuarine Ecological Forecasts: Seasonal Hypoxia In Chesapeake Bay, Donald Scavia, Isabella Bertani, (...), Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Et Al
VIMS Articles
Ecological forecasts are quantitative tools that can guide ecosystem management. The coemergence of extensive environmental monitoring and quantitative frameworks allows for widespread development and continued improvement of ecological forecasting systems. We use a relatively simple estuarine hypoxia model to demonstrate advances in addressing some of the most critical challenges and opportunities of contemporary ecological forecasting, including predictive accuracy, uncertainty characterization, and management relevance. We explore the impacts of different combinations of forecast metrics, drivers, and driver time windows on predictive performance. We also incorporate multiple sets of state-variable observations from different sources and separately quantify model prediction error and measurement …