Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Advancing Estuarine Ecological Forecasts: Seasonal Hypoxia In Chesapeake Bay, Donald Scavia, Isabella Bertani, (...), Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Et Al

VIMS Articles

Ecological forecasts are quantitative tools that can guide ecosystem management. The coemergence of extensive environmental monitoring and quantitative frameworks allows for widespread development and continued improvement of ecological forecasting systems. We use a relatively simple estuarine hypoxia model to demonstrate advances in addressing some of the most critical challenges and opportunities of contemporary ecological forecasting, including predictive accuracy, uncertainty characterization, and management relevance. We explore the impacts of different combinations of forecast metrics, drivers, and driver time windows on predictive performance. We also incorporate multiple sets of state-variable observations from different sources and separately quantify model prediction error and measurement …