Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Effect Of Parameter Distributions On Uncertainty Analysis Of Hydrologic Models, C. Thomas Haan, Daniel E. Storm, T. Al-Issa, Sandeep Prabhu, George J. Sabbagh, Dwayne R. Edwards

Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering Faculty Publications

Increasing concern about the accuracy of hydrologic and water quality models has prompted interest in procedures for evaluating the uncertainty associated with these models. If a Monte Carlo simulation is used in an uncertainty analysis, assumptions must be made relative to the probability distributions to assign to the model input parameters. Some have indicated that since these parameters can not be readily determined, uncertainty analysis is of limited value. In this article we have evaluated the impact of parameter distribution assumptions on estimates of model output uncertainty. We conclude that good estimates of the means and variances of the input …