Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Almost Everybody Disagrees Almost All The Time: The Genericity Of Weakly Merging Nowhere, Ronald I. Miller, Chris William Sanchirico

All Faculty Scholarship

Suppose we randomly pull two agents from a population and ask them to observe an unfolding, infinite sequence of zeros and ones. If each agent starts with a prior belief about the true sequence and updates this belief on revelation of successive observations, what is the chance that the two agents will come to agree on the likelihood that the next draw is a one? In this paper we show that there is no chance. More formally, we show that under a very unrestrictive definition of what it means to draw priors “randomly,” the probability that two priors have any …

How Not To Prevent Oil Crises: Challenge For An Education President, Ibpp Editor

International Bulletin of Political Psychology

This article describes several problematic approaches that are components of lay psychology.

Seasonal Adjustment Of Naira Exchange Rate Statistics 1970-1995, O M. Akinuli

CBN Occasional Papers

This paper uses a current statistical approach to examine and adjust the seasonalities in the Naira exchange rate statistics, vis-a-vis the U.S. Dollar and the pound sterling for a period of twenty-five (25) years. Such study is necessary as it helps to understand the behavioural pattern of a trend in an attempt to predict the future. An investigation like this also helps to expose both the short and long run tendencies of a series which may require urgent or new policy measures to be taken sooner than expected. This paper reviews the regimes of exchange rate under the period, the …

Divestment Of Federal Water Projects, A. Jack Garner

Dams: Water and Power in the New West (Summer Conference, June 2-4)

21 pages.

Contains references.

Greener And More Equitable: A Vision For Dams And Other Western Water Issues, Bruce C. Driver

Dams: Water and Power in the New West (Summer Conference, June 2-4)

10 pages.

Contains 1 page of references.

Integrating New Values With Old Uses In The Relicensing Of Kingsley Dam And Related Facilities (Making Part Of The Problem A Part Of The Solution), Margot Zallen

Dams: Water and Power in the New West (Summer Conference, June 2-4)

21 pages (includes illustrations and map).

Klamath Basin: Balancing Instream Flows With Irrigation And Power, Carl Ullman

Dams: Water and Power in the New West (Summer Conference, June 2-4)

15 pages (includes illustrations and maps).

Damming The West: Development Of Western Water Resources, Gilbert F. White

Dams: Water and Power in the New West (Summer Conference, June 2-4)

8 pages.

Patterns Of Demographic And Economic Change In The Western United States, Pamela Case

Dams: Water and Power in the New West (Summer Conference, June 2-4)

17 pages.

Contains footnotes.

Agenda: Dams: Water And Power In The New West, University Of Colorado Boulder. Natural Resources Law Center

Dams: Water and Power in the New West (Summer Conference, June 2-4)

Conference organizers and/or speakers included University of Colorado School of Law professors David H. Getches, Douglas S. Kenney, Kathryn M. Mutz, Elizabeth Ann (Betsy) Rieke, Charles F. Wilkinson and Lawrence J. MacDonnell.

The keynote address by Charles F. Wilkinson is titled Coming to Grips with Growth in the West: Traditional Communities, Free Rivers and the New Megalopoli, and it will be held on Monday, June 2, at 12:30 p.m. in the Lindsley Memorial Courtroom of the law school. Wilkinson is a noted law professor, writer and authority on Western issues.

The conference will begin by providing historical context for the …

Coming To Grips With Growth In The West: Traditional Communities, Free Rivers, And The New Megalopolises, Charles Wilkinson

Dams: Water and Power in the New West (Summer Conference, June 2-4)

25 pages.

Contains 2 pages of references.

Town Of Charlton, Massachusetts Rural Preservation Planning Study, Center For Economic Development

Center for Economic Development Technical Reports

The town of Charlton, Massachusetts has experienced relatively high population growth over the past two and a half decades. From 1970 to 1990 the population more than doubled, and this growth is projected to continue into the next millennium. this boom in residential growth and development has placed financial pressures on the town, impacting the town's ability to provide services to its residents. For example, many of the new residents moving in to Charlton are families with children who increase the funding necessary for the town's school system budget. To offset these financial pressures, the town is actively engaging economic …

City Of Gardner, Massachusetts Inventory Of Existing And Removed Tanks, Center For Economic Development

Center for Economic Development Technical Reports

The purpose of this project is to provide the City of Gardner with a list of contaminated sites in the Rear Main Street Area. During the past month, I have been researching potential brownfield locations within this corridor, and inputting them into a working database. Overall, the problem identified is that the city has little knowledge of how much land is contaminated within its city. Therefore, the goal of my project was to identify the parcels in the Rear Main Street Area that have been contaminated with hazardous materials.

Protecting The Environment: Finding The Balance Between Delaney And Free Play, Geoffrey C. Hazard Jr., Howard C. Kunreuther

All Faculty Scholarship

No abstract provided.

Uniformly Adaptive Estimation For Models With Arma Errors, Douglas Steigerwald

Douglas G. Steigerwald

A semiparametric estimator based on an unknown density is uniformly adaptive if the expected loss of the estimator converges to the asymptotic expected loss of the maximum likelihood estimator based on the true density (MLE), and if convergence does not depend on either the parameter values or the form of the unknown density. Without uniform adaptivity, the asymptotic expected loss of the MLE need not approximate the expected loss of a semiparamteric estimator for any finite sample. I show that a two-step semiparametric estimator is uniformly adaptive for the parameters of nonlinear regression models with autoregressive moving average errors.

Econometric Estimation Of Foresight: Tax Policy And Investment In The U.S., Douglas G. Steigerwald, Charles Stuart

Douglas G. Steigerwald

We develop a method for measuring the foresight agents have. We first dichotomize an agent's information at current date t into knowledge up to date t+f and expectations after t+f. We then form a residual-based test statistic that allows us to compare prediction errors for econometric models based on different values of f. We illustrate the method, examining investment around tax reforms to measure the foresight firms have about tax policy. In this illustration, current investment appears to reflect currently available information but little foresight other than foresight of enacted policy changes.

Asymptotic Bias For Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators In Models With Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Douglas G. Steigerwald, Whitney Newey

Douglas G. Steigerwald

Virtually all applications of time-varying conditional variance models use a quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE). Consistency of a QMLE requires an identification condition that the quasi-log-likelihood have a unique maximum at the true conditional mean and relative scale parameters. We show that the identification condition holds for a non-Gaussian QMLE if the conditional mean is identically zero or if a symmetry condition is satisfied. Without symmetry an additional parameter, for the location of the innovation density, must be added for consistency. We calculate the efficiency loss from adding such a parameter under symmetry, when the parameter is not needed. We also …